AFL Preview: Bombers v Blues

Essendon v Carlton
Saturday 2:10pm at MCG

Essendon desperately need a win over rivals Carlton to keep their finals hopes flickering while the Blues would enjoy nothing more than spoiling the Bombers season.

Form
Essendon are down to 10th on the ladder with a 9-9 record, a win behind a cluster of four teams on 10 wins. The Bombers had won three on the trot before being smoked by the Western Bulldogs last week. Essendon have posted 100-plus in seven of their last 11 matches but have conceded 100-plus in their last two.

Carlton are down to second last on the ladder with just five wins to their name. They have the worst attack in the AFL while they rate 11th defensively. The Blues have lost their last six with their last two being by margins of 30 and 65. Carlton have not scored 100 points all season while they have conceded 110-plus in their last two.

Stats That Matter

– Carlton have won 2 of the last 3 against Essendon.
– The Blues have covered 4 of the last 5 against the Bombers.
– Essendon have covered 12 of their last 18 at the MCG, but none of their last seven as a favourite.
– Carlton are 30-22 ATS at the MCG since 2012 including a 24-16 ATS record as an underdog.
– The Blues are 17-4 ATS at the MCG as an underdog of more than three goals.
– Essendon are 1-5 ATS since 2012 at the MCG as a favourite of more than three goals.
– Carlton are 20-9 ATS in day matches at the MCG.
– Essendon are 13-9 ATS in day matches at the MCG.
– Carlton are 12-6 ATS after losing by 10 goals.
– Essendon have gone over in 10 of their last 12 after losing by 30 or more.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Essendon 10-8, Carlton 10-8
2017 Over-Under: Essendon 10-8, Carlton 8-10

What To Expect
Get the chips into the middle because we are all-in Carlton.  The Blues have a great record at the MCG and are near unbeatable as a betting proposition as a big underdog at the ground. They also love playing day footy. Essendon have been extremely flaky this year and are a poor bet as a big favourite at the MCG.

How It’s Shaping Up
Carlton by 6

Recommended Bet
Carlton +26.5 ($1.91)