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St George Illawarra Dragons v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Friday, August 4, 6pm (AEST) at Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney

The Dragons desperately need a win to maintain their spot in the Top 8, with the Panthers (9th) breathing down their neck. They suffered a shock loss to the Knights last week and will be looking to bounce back against the struggling Rabbitohs. Souths enforcer Sam Burgess only played 44 minutes in last week’s loss to the Raiders before he succumbed to a rib injury. If he is ruled out this week, it’s hard to see the Rabbitohs springing an upset in this one despite their strong recent record against the Red V.

History
The Rabbitohs have won eight of the last 10 matches played against the Dragons. The Dragons won last year’s clash at the SCG 8-6, with wingers Jason Nightingale and Alex Johnston the only try-scorers for their respective teams.

Form
St George Illawarra are in eighth spot with a 10-9 record. The Saints enter this off a shocking loss to Newcastle where they went down 21-14 and have won just four of their last 12 games. Prior to the Knights loss the Dragons put on 52 against Manly, their first half-century in a decade. South Sydney are 14th on the ladder with a 6-13 record. They have lost four straight – the last three by margins of 13-plus – and 10 of their last 13. Souths have averaged just 13 points per game over the last month. Their last win away from ANZ was against an understrength Penrith team in Round 6.

Key Matchup
Cameron McInnes v Damien Cook: McInnes has been one of the signings of the year and has got through plenty of work defensively. He made a whopping 66 tackles in last week’s loss to the Knights and will be looking for a strong performance against his former club this week. Cook finally won the starting hooker role over Robbie Farah last week and was solid without being spectacular. It’s been a frustrating season for Cook, playing understudy to Farah for the majority of it, and he needs to do more with his opportunity otherwise Farah will be back in the starting side.

Stats That Matter
– St George Illawarra are 10-9 ATS with an 11-8 under record while South Sydney are 9-10 ATS with a 10-9 under record.

– South Sydney have won eight of the last 10 matches played against the Dragons.

– The Dragons have been kept to 10 points or fewer in five of their last six against the Rabbitohs.

– Six of the last seven matches have failed to top 40 points.

– The under has hit in 8 of the 11 matches at the SCG over the last decade, with the Saints 6-1 under at the venue.

– The Dragons are 34-12 under at night since 2014.

– Souths have failed to cover their last three as an underdog

– Saints have covered six of their last nine night games.

Final Thoughts
The Dragons could find themselves out of the Top 8 if they drop this match and the Panthers beat the Tigers on Sunday. It’s a must-win clash and a match a finals-bound team should be winning. The Dragons should be good enough to grind out a result, with a win by 1-12 and the unders, the Wolf’s recommended plays here.

How It’s Shaping Up
St George Illawarra by 6

Best Bet
St George Illawarra 1-12 ($3)

Other Recommended Bets
Under 39.5 ($1.88)


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