The Title Favourites
- Aston Villa 7.80
- Middlesbrough 8.20
- Fulham 9.80
Just three clubs trade at single figure prices in the 2017/18 Winner market but it's quite surprising to see Aston Villa, and not Middlesbrough, trading as the early title favourites.
Villa were relegated from the Premier League at the end of the 2015/16 season and were rated as second favourites, behind Newcastle, to make an immediate return to the top flight last term. They finished 13th!
The general feeling is that a club's best chance of returning to the Premier League is at the first time of asking, and the statistics certainly bear that out. Since the Premier League's inception, 73 clubs have been relegated with 20 (27.4%) of them returning the very next season. Just seven clubs returned to the Premier League at the second attempt.
Admittedly Villa are potentially much better now than last season's 13th place finish suggests. But I don't see why they've suddenly been elevated to title favourites.
Villa got off to a bad start last term under Roberto Di Matteo, but even under Steve Bruce's guidance they were still no better than a top-eight side. Bruce accumulated 52 points from 35 matches at an average of 1.49 points per game. Over a 46 game season that average equates to around the 68-69 points mark. Norwich finished last season with 70 points, and that was good enough for just an eighth-place finish.
Of course, Villa have made arguably the most high-profile signing in Championship history by snapping up Chelsea legend John Terry on a free transfer. With his ability and experience there is no doubt in my mind that Terry would have been a tremendous squad player at any of the Premier League clubs competing in Europe, he's that good. So obviously he's going to be a huge asset to Villa.
Bruce has also brought in defenders Ahmed Elmohamady and Chris Samba, plus defensive midfielder Glenn Whelan, so it looks at this stage that the Villa boss is putting a huge emphasis on making his side difficult to beat. But you have to have concerns about Villa's scoring ability at the other end.
Jonathan Kodjia was Villa's top goalscorer last season with 19 strikes, but no other player in Bruce's squad managed more than five goals. Surely this an area that Bruce has to strengthen. Kodjia is very capable of improving on last season's tally, but a few months out through injury, or a loss of form, and Villa will need another striker to step up to the plate. Scott Hogan might be it, but I know some Villa fans are crying out for more strength in depth in attack.
In contrast, the goal-shy Middlesbrough that we witnessed in last season's Premier League promises to be a different animal in the Championship. Garry Monk - who has done very little wrong in his brief managerial career - is the man charged with getting Boro back into the Premier League at the first time of asking and with in the region of £40m spent already he looks to have strengthened in all the right areas.
If Middlesbrough can retain the services of Ben Gibson then they will practically have the same back line that had the best defensive record in the country during their promotion season two years ago, with George Friend among the best full-backs in the division and new addition Cyrus Christie on the opposite flank also possessing an attacking mentality.
It's fair to say that Middlesbrough's foreign signings were a bit of a write off last term, but undoubtedly the one that shone was central midfielder Marten de Roon, and he should revel in this division, while Monk's attacking signings look to have plenty of goals in them.
Britt Assombalonga, proven at Championship level with 30 goals in two seasons at Nottingham Forest, has been brought in for a fee of £15m to lead the Boro attack, while £12m capture Martin Braithwaite, former Leeds and Norwich star Jonathan Howson, and recent £6.5m signing Ashley Fletcher can all play a number of roles in attacking midfield, wide, or striking positions.
And it's worth pointing out that Middlesbrough still retain the services of target man Rudy Gestede, proven Championship performer Patrick Bamford, and - at the time of writing - the hugely talented, if somewhat troublesome, Gaston Ramirez.
Middlesbrough possess a lot of similarities to Newcastle last term; recently relegated from the Premier League, a lot of their better players retained, a new manager at the helm, and £40m spent in the transfer market. Newcastle were no bigger than 3.00 to win the Championship, so Middlesbrough at 8.20 have to be the selection.
I called Fulham completely wrong last term, suggesting that they could be an outside bet to be relegated early in the season, so the fact that they finished sixth either says I was massively wide of the mark or that the Cottagers over-achieved somewhat.
I'm hoping the answer is closer to the latter as I'm dead against Slavisa Jokanovic's men again this term at what I believe to be a ridiculously short price. They've brought in a few players, defender Marcelo Djalo and midfielder Ibrahima Cisse, but their squad much resembles what it was last term and I'm of the opinion it will fall some way short of being title contenders.
The Next Wave
- Wolves 12.00
- Sheffield Wednesday 12.50
- Norwich 12.50
- Derby 16.00
Wolves were a huge gamble 12 months ago, being backed in from 100.00 to around the 20.00 mark to win the title, and as I wrote at the time, I didn't understand that one bit. Thankfully I was proved correct as Wolves were never out of the bottom half of the table and eventually finished 15th.
Nuno Espírito Santo - often referred to as just Nuno - is the new man in charge at Molineux and he comes with a decent reputation having led Valencia to a fourth place finish in La Liga a few seasons back. However, he is out to repair a bit of damage to that reputation after he was sacked by Porto at the end of last season for failing to win any silverware.
Wolves have money to spend, evidenced by the near £16m capture of highly promising 20-year-old midfielder Ruben Neves, but for a club that was rated 20/1 shots to win the title last season - and yet finished just 15th - I have little interest in backing them at almost half those odds this term.
Having finished sixth and fourth in the last two seasons, and only missing out on promotion when losing to Hull in the 2015/16 play-off final, Sheffield Wednesday look destined to be on the scene again this term.
Carlos Carvalhal has retained much of the squad that he's worked with for the last two seasons, has made prolific striker Jordan Rhodes a £10m permanent signing from Middlesbrough, and also brought in highly experienced midfielder George Boyd from Premier League outfit Burnley.
Fernando Forestieri will once again be a pivotal player for the Owls, but if he performs consistently well then Wednesday look like a team that has the ability to contend at the top of the table. With my doubts about Villa and Fulham, and Wolves again looking too short in the markets, then backing Carvalhal's men in the Promotion market at 4.40 should provide a lot of interest throughout the season. Remember, finishing sixth in the table still gives you a chance of promotion.
At the prices, I much prefer Derby for a run at promotion than Norwich, and to a large extent it's because of the man in charge at the Ipro Stadium.
Gary Rowett was doing a fine job on a shoestring budget at Birmingham before inexplicably being sacked, but he wasn't out of work long and guided the Rams to four wins and three draws from his nine games in charge at the end of last season.
Derby were favourites to win the title two seasons ago and they were one of the market leaders last term, so even though they've lost their key player Tom Ince to Huddersfield - they've brought in Andre Wisdom from Liverpool and Tom Huddlestone from Hull - they make a bit of appeal at 5.40 to be promoted and/or at the 3.20 mark in the Top 6 Finish market.
It's hard to fancy Norwich given they've been far from busy in the transfer market so far and they've recruited a manager - Daniel Farke - with no experience of managing at this level. He was in charge of Borussia Dortmund's reserve side however, and we saw last season that recruiting a manager from that club worked wonders for Huddersfield Town when David Wagner led the Terriers to the Premier League.
Best of the Rest
I feel like there's a lot of under-priced clubs in the Winner market, and while I'm not saying they won't perform well - Villa could easily finish third or fourth for example, but look too short to win the title, Fulham could have another solid season without getting into a position to challenge for automatic promotion etc - I do sense there might be some trading value a bit further down.
Eyes are instantly drawn towards the likes of Hull, Leeds, and Sunderland for example, all of which are available to back at around the 20.00 mark to win the title and at approximately 6.40 in the Promotion market.
Even though neither have made any eye-catching summer signings, it's very rare that a relegated club from the Premier League trades at 20/1 to make an instant return, therefore the Tigers and the Black Cats must be considered.
Both will have money to spend should they get onto the coattails of the top six, and they have plenty of experience of Championship football being two of the clubs that have been promoted the most times from this division in the Premier League era. Either, or both, could easily trade much shorter in various markets throughout the season.
Leeds enjoyed a good finish to the 2015/16 campaign and looked set to finish in the top six last term but some poor end of season form cost them dear. They could easily contend again under new boss Thomas Christiansen.
Keep an eye out also for Brentford. They've performed with huge credit in recent seasons since coming up from League One and Griffin Park is always a hard place to take points from. Dean Smith's men have finished 5th, 9th, and 10th in the last three Championship seasons, they have a very good striker in Lasse Vibe, and attacking midfielder Jota looks to be a player who will get better and better.
The Bees look worth chancing in the Top 6 Finish market at anywhere around the 4.00 mark.
Recommended Bets
Back Middlesbrough in Winner market @ 8.20
Back Sheffield Wednesday in Promotion market @ 4.40
Back Brentford in Top 6 Finish market @ 4.00
0 nhận xét Blogger 0 Facebook
Post a Comment