There is a Premier League-centric band of football followers who will have doubtless been delighted that Pep Guardiola failed to secure a trophy in his first season in England, as his City side finished 15 points adrift of the winners Chelsea. There has been talk of the Catalan schemer being found out, that spells at super-clubs Barcelona and Bayern Munich left him ill-prepared for the competitive cut-and-thrust of English football.
I wholeheartedly disagree with this sentiment. You can't survive in the rarefied air of the Camp Nou or Allianz Arena if you don't have what it takes, and the way Bayern went dreamy-eyed as they wafted a new contract at Guardiola before his exit underlines the impact he made in Bavaria. By his own admission, Guardiola failed to find consistency, and lost too many big games, most notable of which was the disastrous defeat in Monaco which saw the Citizens tumble out of the Champions League. He also made a big error by heaping pressure on keeper Claudio Bravo, who melted under the glare of the spotlight that was shone upon him when he replaced the ruthlessly jettisoned Joe Hart.
There have been errors, but there are also huge pluses for City fans to focus on. In Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva, City have two of the Premier League's most creative playmakers (Opta tell us De Bruyne delivered 18 PL assists last season), and the emergence of Brazilian youngster Gabriel Jesus as a potential partner or rival for Sergio Aguero has given Guardiola plenty of firepower to call upon. Leroy Sane has settled in after a slow start, and the summer splurge on full-backs Benjamin Mendy, Kyle Walker and Danilo hints that Guardiola is working on some quirky tactical scheme. Full-backs have always been crucial to the way Guardiola's teams operate, so an injection of quality in that area should reap rewards.
Ederson, one of the world's best young keepers, has been recruited from Benfica. His excellent distribution will suit Guardiola's style, but he is also rock-solid, and he has plenty of motivation to excel as he chases a place in the Brazil team ahead of the World Cup.
City are the clear favourites in this market, but although I believe they will challenge for the Premier League title, I don't feel they should be as short as 2.90. Unless Vincent Kompany manages to stay fit, City still look light in central defence. City only kept 12 clean sheets last term (champions Chelsea managed 16), and as Guardiola chases overloads high up the pitch, that central tranche of the defence will keep coming under pressure.
In what I suspect will be a very tight race, City will be in the mix, but I can't support them at that price.
Chelsea - 4.70
After the debacle of 2015-16, Chelsea's players restored their reputation in style last term, as manager Antonio Conte enhanced his already-glittering career. A switch to Conte's preferred three-man defence proved crucial, not least because it facilitated the footballing rebirth of David Luiz. The Brazilian shed his image as a preening liability, and carved out a new one as one of the league's most accomplished defenders. After effectively taking a season off, Eden Hazard returned to his effervescent best, and the indefatigable N'Golo Kante was outstanding at the heart of midfield.
Diego Costa smashed in 20 goals, but it says a lot about Conte's ruthlessness that he is willing to axe such an effective player in the pursuit of harmony. New signing Alvaro Morata is more brain than brawn by comparison, but I believe the has the skill-set to effectively replace Costa (although Costa hasn't left yet). Morata was a fringe player at Real Madrid last term, but still managed to score 15 goals in 26 La Liga appearances, and he should thrive if finally given a consistent chance to shine.
The acquisitions of Roma defender Antonio Rudiger and Monaco midfielder Tiemoue Bakayoko add athleticism and depth to the Chelsea squad, and it speaks volumes that the Blues felt they could allow a midfielder of Nemanja Matic's quality to defect to Manchester United.
Chelsea now have to battle on several fronts, as they look to also succeed in the Champions League, but their squad is packed with talent and experience. Chelsea feel confident enough in the depth available to Conte to sell Nathan Ake, Nathaniel Chalobah and Bertrand Traore, while also loaning out Tammy Abraham, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Kurt Zouma.
Conte led Juventus to three consecutive Serie A titles, and he has the tools to secure back-to-back Premier League crowns. It'll be a closer run thing than last term, but I think the Blues can top the pile once again.
Manchester United - 5.00
Given that he led his team to Europa League and League Cup success in his first season, Jose Mourinho can be satisfied to some degree about Manchester United's progress. However, a disappointing league campaign tore open a few wounds that will take time to salve. United finished sixth, scored a painfully low 54 goals (of which Zlatan Ibrahimovic netted 17), and drew an eye-watering 15 times.
I have maintained for some time that United have the deepest squad in England (although not the best starting XI), and I still feel that's the case. Nemanja Matic has come in to give Paul Pogba more licence to attack in midfield, Victor Lindelof is a great young defender who'll relish the physical battles on offer, and Romelu Lukaku is a proven Premier League goalscorer who will score bucketloads if the creative forces around him do their job.
Mourinho has the players and the defensive organisation (United conceded just 29 league goals last term), but he must now find a way to turn draws into wins. Mourinho's old club Chelsea finished 24 points ahead of United last term, and that gap will only be closed if Mourinho can take off the handbrake, and turn Old Trafford back into a fortress. United dropped 23 points at home last term, simply unacceptable for a club that has ambitions to top the table.
Tottenham Hotspur - 11.50
Spurs have played some incredible football in the last two seasons under their inspirational leader Mauricio Pochettino, and yet the title has eluded them in both campaigns. The North London giants have retained their key players, and Pochettino is happy to play a waiting game in the transfer market. He doesn't want to sign players for the sake of it, and was stung by the failures of Moussa Sissoko, Vincent Janssen and Georges-Kevin N'Koudou.
There is no doubt that Spurs have one of the best starting elevens in the league. Harry Kane has become almost absurdly consistent up front, Dele Alli is an outstanding attacking midfielder, Victor Wanyama is a force of nature in midfield, Mousa Dembele is a classy, intelligent craftsman, Cristian Eriksen is technically excellent, and Belgian duo Toby Aldeweireld and Jan Vertonghen are superb centre-backs.
But here's the rub. Spurs are playing all of their home games at Wembley while their new/old home is being sorted out, and I believe that's a ginormous problem. I've covered many games at White Hart Lane down the years, and you simply can't replicate that incredible atmosphere at Wembley. Opposition players in the Champions League last term were excited and emboldened by a trip to the home of English football, and Spurs duly lost "home games" against both Monaco and Bayer Leverkusen.
Tottenham were impeccable at home last season, and I think their temporary move will rob them of a chunk of that effectiveness. I love watching Spurs play, and there is so much about the club to like right now, but I'm taking the position that the move to Wembley will be very costly, if only in the short term. I'm laying Spurs in the Top 4 market at 2.04.
Arsenal - 13.00
I was lucky enough to study Classical Civilization at school, and I'm sure many of antiquity's finest writers would have been proud of penning the story of Arsenal. A proud, stubborn general who hasn't been able to recreate past successes. A group of young men who have enviable talent, but tragically lack the moral fortitude to reach their goals. A mob who are split between the general's loyalists, and the vociferous agitators pushing for change.
It's been a long time since Arsenal genuinely pushed for the Premier League title under Arsene Wenger, and despite the impressive signing of Lyon goalgetter Alexandre Lacazette, there is little to suggest a title bid will materialise this term. Speculation still swirls around sparkling duo Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil, there is no guarantee that a defence that leaked 44 goals last season can be patched up well enough to be the bedrock of a title push, and it's hard to shake the feeling that Arsenal will keep coming up short in the big games.
Arsenal are 13.00 to win the title, and that feels about right.
Liverpool - 14.00
As I stated in this piece about Mohamed Salah, I feel Liverpool are moving in the right direction under Jurgen Klopp. The prospect of Roberto Firmino, Sadio Mane and Salah lining up in attack is thrilling, with new signing Dominic Solanke an intriguing wild card. Despite the failure to recruit RB Leipzig's Naby Keita, Klopp still has a wide range of options to call upon in midfield.
The key for Liverpool will be whether they can defend more solidly, and whether they can reduce the number of bizarrely flat performances. Home defeats to teams like Crystal Palace and Swansea are a cause for ongoing concern, and it'd worth noting that all six of Liverpool's Premier League losses came against teams that finished outside the top eight last term.
I think Liverpool will finish in the top four this term, but a title push will depend on whether those aberrations against underdogs can be eradicated.
Recommended Bets
Back Chelsea to win the Premier League title at 4.70
Lay Tottenham in the Top 4 Finish market at 2.04
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