MLS betting: Bulls march on the Bronx

ew York City v New York Red Bulls
Sunday, 23:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

The New York Red Bulls steam to Yankee Stadium on the back of five straight wins in all competitions, and Jesse Marsch's team are attractively priced at 3.80 to come away with all three points.

The improvement in the Red Bulls' performance since they lost the last derby match 2-0 has largely been down to a shift in formation. Marsch is now playing with three at the back, and that has allowed key man Sascha Klejstan space and time to influence the game.

It has paid dividends, and given the fact that NYCFC come into this after a humiliating turnaround at the hands of Toronto FC, the Red Bulls will surely feel that they have a massive chance to avenge that defeat in June.

One reason for the poor performance of Patrick Vieira's team last time was the absence of Yangel Herrera from the midfield, and his return should stiffen their resolve, but the Red Bulls have worked out how to play away from home, and having lost six in a row on their travels, have now won three on the spin, and are looking to make it four for the first time in 15 years.

This is a notoriously difficult League in which to travel, but New Jersey to the Bronx shouldn't be too much of a stretch and so it's the new look Red Bulls all the way for me in the latest New York derby.

Recommended Bet: Back New York Red Bulls to beat NYCFC @ 3.80

Montreal Impact v Orlando City
Sunday, 00:30
Live on Sky Sports Football
Normally, I'd be a big supporter of Orlando City to win at Montreal, given the unpredictable nature of the home team's form and the sudden strengthening of Jason Kreis' side. The presence of both Kaka and Orlando's new signing Dom Dwyer at the midweek All Star game means, though, that both might be on the bench for this, and so proceed with caution.

I still think that Orlando are a big price at 4.20, but the goals market for this one is also interesting. Orlando are a lot more attack-minded than their results suggest, particularly now that Cyle Larin is back from his misdemeanours, and Montreal's games tend to be full of goals.

I think that Kreis will be attack-minded here, with or without Kaka and Dwyer, and with Ignacio Piatti likely to return to the starting line-up, Jonathan Spector and the Orlando back line will have their hands full.

Orlando's away games haven't been high-scoring, and so this in one of those occasions when I'm going to favour a hunch, and a sense of how the game might play out, over the stats. Normally I look for both of those elements to work in harmony, but I feel that, tactically, this will be wide open, and the prices reflect the recent statistics rather than the likelier outcome, which gives us a bit of value.

Both clubs HAVE been involved in high-scoring games against a certain kind of team, and that's what we're looking at here, and with a price for Over 3.5 Goals that looks too big, we have the chance to make a useful play.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals in Montreal Impact v Orlando City @ 2.70

Portland Timbers v LA Galaxy
Sunday, 21:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

The LA Galaxy showed marked improvement last time out against Seattle and Sigi Schmid will be looking for that to continue at a Portland side who return home to Providence Park after an excellent away series.

Portland won in Vancouver with half a team and then came very close to defeating Houston and so it's no great surprise to see them as short as 1.50 for the visit of the Galaxy.

Schmid is a very smart Coach, though, and his team will be helped by the sweltering conditions in Portland. The game has been moved because of expected high temperatures, but despite those measures, don't expect a high tempo, energetic game. The Galaxy will come to keep things tight and this will suit them.

For all the nightmares under Curt Onalfo, LA have already showed us this season that they're suited to playing away from the spotlight of the StubHub Center, and if their form at home had matched that away, Onalfo would still be in a job.

Schmid will look to build on the clean sheet against the Sounders and counter attack against a team that loves to do just that. Another 0-0 draw has to be a big runner here, but I'm happy to lay the Timbers at around the 1.54 mark.

Recommended Bet: Lay Portland Timbers against LA Galaxy @ 1.54