AFL Preview: Cats v Swans

Geelong v Sydney

Friday 7:50pm at Simonds Stadium

Friday nights don’t come much more exciting than this with Geelong and Sydney doing battle in an affair that will have a major bearing on the makeup of the Top 8.

Form

Geelong’s premiership tilt is well and truly on track with a 12-5-1 record and second-placing on the AFL ladder. The Cats have lost just two of their last 10 matches and enter this off their second biggest win of the year, a 65-point thumping of Carlton. The Cats have failed to win any of their last three against Top 8 opposition. Geelong rank second in scoring and seventh in defence.

Sydney are sixth on the ladder with a 10-8 record but could drop out of the eight with a loss and some bad results. They had won seven straight before losing to Hawthorn last week – and have won 10 of their last 12 with both losses coming against the Hawks. The Swans rank third defensively while they rate eighth in scoring.

Stats That Matter

– The Swans have won 4 of 5 against the Cats.

– The last three clashes between the Cats and Swans have gone under the total.

– The winner has covered eight straight in Cats-Swans clashes.

– The Cats have covered 11 of their last 15 at Simonds Stadium.

– Geelong are 6-2 ATS at Simonds when favoured by a goal or less or an outsider.

– The Cats are 12-4 ATs at Simonds in night games since 2012.

– Sydney are 17-8 under as an interstate outsider.

– The Swans have covered 5 of their last 7 as an interstate outsiders.

– Geelong are 15-25 ATS after topping 110 points (but 3-3 ATS this year).

Betting Data

2017 Line: Geelong 9-9, Sydney 9-9

2017 Over-Under: Geelong 9-9, Sydney 7-11

What To Expect

Great game to start the round but not an easy one for punters. Have to lean to the Cats here, who have a great record at Simonds at night and when a rare good price. Sydney do travel well and have lost only to Hawthorn in their last 12. The Cats should be smarting after the Patrick Dangerfield situation.

How It’s Shaping Up

Geelong by 8

Recommended Bet

Geelong WIN ($1.95)

Player Markets

Mitch Duncan has not hit 30 disposals in his last three weeks (28,24,27) but the suspension of Patrick Dangerfield should see Duncan play an even more important role.

Recommended Bet

Mitch Duncan 30+ Disposals ($2.25)