AFL Preview: Lions v Bulldogs

Brisbane v Western Bulldogs

Saturday 4:35pm at Gabba

The defending wooden spooners host the defending premiers in a match that is critical to the Bulldogs’ chances of returning to the finals.

Form

Brisbane are last on the ladder with just four wins from their 18 games. They have the worst defence in the AFL while their attack ranks 16th. Brisbane’s recent form has been solid enough with three wins in their last eight including two of their last four at the Gabba. They enter this off a 68-point lost to West Coast in Perth.

The Bulldogs kept their finals fires burning with a 30-point win over Essendon, their third straight victory. The Bulldogs are up to ninth on the ladder with a 10-8 record, out of the Top 8 on just percentages. They have posted 110-plus in their last two having done so just twice in their first 16 games.

Stats That Matter

– The Bulldogs have won 3 of their last 4 against the Lions.

– The over has hit in 7 of the last 8 Lions-Bulldogs clashes.

– The over has hit in four straight and 14 of 18 Lions home games.

– The Lions have failed to cover eight straight at home as an underdog of four or more goals.

– The over is 6-0 this year when the Lions are at home after losing by 60 or more.

– The Bulldogs have covered 8 of their last 12 interstate games.

– The Bulldogs have covered 2 of 3 interstate games when favoured by more than four goals.

Betting Data

2017 Line: Brisbane 10-8, Western Bulldogs 7-11

2017 Over-Under: Brisbane 11-7, Western Bulldogs 7-11

What To Expect

A game that doesn’t offer a lot of appeal. Keen to play against Brisbane but there is not enough to jump into the Bulldogs at such a short quote. There are some strong angles at play here for the over – mainly backed by Brisbane’s horrid defence – so that is the bet here. It has hit in 14 of the last 18 Lions home games and should again.

How It’s Shaping Up

Western Bulldogs by 44

Recommended Bet

Over 187.5 points ($1.88)

Player Markets

Tory Dickson booted three in an open game against the Bombers last weekend and should have plenty of fun against a hapless Lions defence.

Recommended Bet

Tory Dickson 4+ Goals ($3.00)