Borussia Dortmund v Besiktas: Leaky Dortmund defence provides value

Borussia Dortmund can't stop conceding and Dan Fitch thinks that could be key to finding some value in their match against Besiktas.

Dortmund headed to Europa League

It's the deadest of dead rubbers in Group C, when Borussia Dortmund host Besiktas.

Dortmund are third in the group and, though they can move level on points with second placed Sporting Lisbon, they cannot move above them. Over their two games, they shared one win each, but Sporting have the superior head-to-head goal difference, which has guaranteed them a place in the last-16 of the Champions League.

That leaves Dortmund to make do with a place in the Europa League. On current form, the knockout stages of the Europa League look a more natural fit for Dortmund than the Champions League right now. At the weekend they lost 3-2 at home against Bayern Munich, which was their fourth loss in the last six games (W2).

Dortmund are at least still second in the Bundesliga. Struggling Besiktas are only ninth in the Super Lig, having dropped further points at the weekend with a 1-1 draw at Kasimpasa. Besiktas have lost all five of their games in the Champions League and are bottom of the group.

Dortmund defence could be key to finding value

Borussia Dortmund are the 1.28 favourites, with the draw at 6.4 and Besiktas at 12.0.

That seems a fair set of odds. Dortmund should be motivated, as they have lost a lot of late and need to get back on track. Yet while they should win, it could be competitive, as Dortmund are really struggling defensively.

Dortmund have conceded in each of their last six games. Though Besiktas have yet to score on the road in the Champions League, the reverse fixture ended in a 2-1 win for the Germans and it's worth taking a chance on the home victory and both teams to score at 2.58.

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