La Liga xG Tips

La Liga xG Tips: Betis and Sevilla to thrive in Gameweek 21

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions for a busy midweek programme in La Liga...

Betis to earn first win in four

Real Betis v Alavés
Tuesday, 19:00
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Real Betis have seen their top four berth grow more fragile by the week, and a failure to win on Tuesday could see them drop out of the Champions League spots. They can gain some encouragement from Alavés' disappointing away form, though, with an average of 0.97 xGF per game making for a return of just five points from nine games on the road, and Infogol expects that to become five from 10.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 8.00

Sergio to make losing start with Cádiz

Cádiz v Espanyol
Tuesday, 20:30
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Cádiz have a new man in the dugout for the visit of Espanyol, with Álvaro Cervera dismissed after a run of seven games without a win and former Valladolid boss Sergio González taking his place. The new man will feel Tuesday's game is winnable, given the visitors' struggles on the road, but Infogol's model backs Espanyol to complete a league double over their opponents after a 2-0 win in October.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 12.50

Celta to reignite home form

Celta Vigo v Osasuna
Wednesday, 19:00
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Celta have been putting up better numbers at home than their points record suggests, though they'll be wary of an Osasuna side coming off an impressive attacking performance at home to Cádiz. The reverse fixture back in August ended goalless, but the home side are favoured to get the job done this time against opponents who haven't won on the road since mid-October.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 9.40

Valencia to suffer third straight defeat

Valencia v Sevilla
Wednesday, 20:30
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An average of 3.09 xGA per game across their last three outings leaves Valencia desperate to fix things at the back, and that won't be easy against high-flying Sevilla. Julen Lopetegui's side are averaging just 1.02 xGA per game on their travels - better than anyone else in La Liga - and remain the only team capable of challenging Real Madrid in the race for the domestic title this season.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 13.00

Getafe to stay above bottom three

Getafe v Granada
Thursday, 19:00
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Getafe have kept their heads above water despite being shut out at Sevilla last time out, and a home meeting with Granada is an ideal opportunity to pull away from the bottom three with some of the sides around them not in action. Quique Sánchez Flores' side are averaging just 1.23 xGA per game all season - fewer than league leaders Real Madrid - and Infogol's model backs them to have enough as they welcome Granada to Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 10.00