La Liga xG Tips

La Liga xG Tips: Rayo and Mallorca to keep sliding in Gameweek 28

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions as the relegation run-in continues to take shape...

Atlético to win third on the spin

Atlético Madrid v Cádiz
Friday, 20:00
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Atlético Madrid will want to prepare as well as possible for their Champions League trip to Manchester, and a third straight league win would do the trick. Diego Simeone's side were back to something approaching their best at Betis last weekend, leapfrogging their opponents in the process, and should find it easy against a Cádiz side averaging 1.97 xGA per game on the road.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 8.60

Levante to pick up another home win

Levante v Espanyol
Saturday, 13:00
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Levante no longer have La Liga's worst home record after cruising to victory against Elche in their last game at Ciutat de Valencia, and they'll feel their underlying numbers deserve more than nine points. Espanyol were a tad fortunate to win the reverse fixture, and Infogol's model backs the hosts to get their revenge and keep alive their slim survival hopes.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 10.50 or 2-0 @ 13.00

Elche to continue toiling on the road

Granada v Elche
Saturday, 15:15
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Had Elche hung on for a point last week against Barcelona it wouldn't have been the most deserved result, but Francisco's side will still be frustrated after conceding a late Memphis penalty. That adds extra importance to their trip to Nuevo Los Cármenes, where Granada have floundered this term - averaging 2.14 xGA per game - but are still expected to get the job done against their fellow strugglers.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 10.50

Villarreal to get European push back on track

Villarreal v Celta Vigo
Saturday, 17:30
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Last week's loss at Osasuna was a big blow for Villarreal, who could find themselves distracted by their imminent trip to Turin while attempting to focus on Celta's threat. Eduardo Coudet's visitors came out on top in a topsy-turvy game against Mallorca last time out, with Iago Aspas delivering a stoppage-time winner, and the hosts will need to be wary of them despite Villarreal's impressive home return.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.40

Getafe to stop Valencia's charge

Getafe v Valencia
Saturday, 20:00
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Back-to-back wins have lifted Valencia into the top half of the table, but Pepe Bordalás may find some resistance in the form of his old club. Getafe are averaging just 1.03 xGA at home, though their xGF numbers are a little worse, and Infogol's model backs them to pick up three points which could help them pull clear of the bottom three approaching the sharp end of the season.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 11.50

Rayo's losing streak to continue

Rayo Vallecano v Sevilla
Sunday, 13:00

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Rayo will be grateful for their fast start to the season, after last week's loss to Cádiz left them just seven points north of the bottom three, and the only saving grace against Sevilla is the fact that Julen Lopetegui's team are in European action either side of this game. The visitors are averaging 1.10 xGA on the road, and Infogol's model anticipates another shutout for the high-flyers.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 11.00

Betis to recover top four hopes

Real Betis v Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, 15:15
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Defeat against Atlético Madrid last weekend saw Real Betis drop out of the Champions League places for the first time since November, and Manuel Pellegrini will be desperate for a reaction from his team. That won't be easy against an Athletic team coming off an impressive attacking performance against Levante on Monday, but Infogol's model gives the hosts the narrowest of edges.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 10.50

Real Sociedad to enjoy return to Anoeta

Real Sociedad v Alavés
Sunday, 17:30
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After a tough evening at the Bernabéu last Saturday, La Real have a chance to return to form in front of their own fans. Visitors Alavés are averaging just 0.95 xGF per game away from home, one of the worst records in the entire league, though Imanol Alguacil's side will be wary of underestimating opponents who held them to a draw in the reverse fixture back in January.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 7.40

Barça to continue impressing at home

Barcelona v Osasuna
Sunday, 20:00
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Barcelona's home average of 2.20 xGF at home will worry plenty, while the 3.35 xGF averaged by Xavi's side in their last three home or away in La Liga is worrying reading for Osasuna. The reverse fixture ended all-square in December, with Chimy Ávila rescuing a point for Jagoba Arrasate's men, but Infogol can't see anything other than victory for a Barça side well on course for the top four.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 9.00

Real Madrid to squeeze past Mallorca

Mallorca v Real Madrid
Monday, 20:00
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Real Madrid's 1.87 xGF average on the road is second only to Barcelona, and that should be enough to lead Carlo Ancelotti's men to victory over a Mallorca side on a concerning run of defeats. A fourth successive loss last weekend leaves Luis García's team just two points clear of the drop zone, and they can't rely forever on those beneath them dropping points.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over

Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.00