Bundesliga xG Tips

Bundesliga xG Tips: Union to harm Hertha with derby win in Gameweek 29

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions ahead of a significant Berlin derby...

Dortmund to avert a slide

Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund
Friday, 19:30
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While RB Leipzig's win at Dortmund on Sunday flattered the visitors, at least according to the numbers, it's still two winless games in a row for Marco Rose's side. Next up for them is a Stuttgart side unbeaten in four, with a 2.25 xGF average along the way, but Infogol's model still backs the visitors to claim a victory which would leave their opponents in relegation danger.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.60

Bayern to close in on title

Bayern Munich v Augsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Bayern's 2.89 xGF average all season long is frankly terrifying, and a league title is now surely a matter of when not if. The biggest challenge for Julian Nagelsmann's side on Saturday is keeping their focus in between the two legs of their Champions League quarter-final, and they're unlikely to let their guard down against an Augsburg side who caused a shock in the reverse fixture.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 4-1 @ 10.00

Mainz to finish weekend above Köln

Köln v Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
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These two sides have been battling it out for a top-half finish, with European hopes fading, and the loser at RheinEnergieStadion may have to wave goodbye to their chances of regular midweek football next term. The reverse fixture ended all saucer back in November, and this could well be another close one, but Infogol's model makes the visitors the more likely victors.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 12.00

Gladbach to inch towards survival

Greuther Fürth v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, 14:30
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A point in Fürth will ensure Borussia Mönchengladbach can't be caught by their weekend opponents, but they'll really be after all three as other strugglers begin to pick up points. Adi Hütter's men are unbeaten in three but their underlying numbers haven't been the best, and Infogol's model has looked at their 1.85 xGA away average and suggested they'll have to work hard for the win.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 8.60

Wolfsburg to avoid being dragged into relegation fight

Wolfsburg v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday, 14:30
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After three successive defeats, Wolfsburg boss Florian Kohfeldt may be afraid of his relegation form with Werder Bremen last season repeating itself. One saving grace is the fixture list, though, with a home game against an Arminia side averaging just 0.85 xGF on their travels. Infogol backs the hosts to win at Volkswagen Arena, but a failure to do so will certainly leave them very worried.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.20

Union to pick up significant derby win

Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin
Saturday, 17:30
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There's surely nothing Union Berlin would like more than to push their neighbours Hertha one step closer to the drop, and Infogol's model considers this a very serious possibility. Felix Magath has helped the hosts stay within touch of safety, but their dismal display in the reverse fixture - and indeed in countless other fixtures this season - makes Urs Fischer's men comfortable favourites.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 11.50

Leverkusen to succeed where Hoffenheim failed

Bochum v Bayer Leverkusen
Sunday, 14:30

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Bayer Leverkusen's top four push was given a boost last weekend as they earned a second successive win and rivals Hoffenheim were beaten at home by Bochum. Thomas Reis' side have been better at home than on the road this term, meaning the visitors won't find things easy at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, but Infogol's model backs the high-flyers to come through their tough test.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.20

Frankfurt to make it five without defeat

Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg
Sunday, 16:30
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Frankfurt have all but made sure of their Bundesliga status for another season after some nervy moments, and they're only looking up with six games to go. Visitors Freiburg really need three points to revive their own top four push - something which this weekend's opponents narrowly missed out on last term, but the result may hinge on how the hosts recover from their European exertions.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 10.50

Leipzig to strengthen hold on fourth

RB Leipzig v Hoffenheim
Sunday, 18:30
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Despite being outside the top four right up until mid-February, RB Leipzig can tighten their grip on Champions League qualification with a victory over a Hoffenheim side still just four points behind them. Jesse Marsch was still in charge when Die Roten Bullen lost at PreZero Arena back in November, but the uptick under Domenico Tedesco is just one reason why the hosts will be considered favourites on Sunday.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over

Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-1 @ 12.00