Aston Villa v Burnley: Collins and Digne the players to follow

Andy Schooler delves into the player props markets for Thursday's Premier League TV game between Aston Villa and Burnley...

The Premier League relegation battle is already guaranteed to go to the final day of the season but Burnley will only head into it with their fate in their own hands if they avoid defeat at Villa Park on Thursday.

Fighting for survival

Given their goal-difference advantage over Leeds, the Clarets need four points from their last two games - they host Newcastle on Sunday.

They've been in decent form too, winning four and drawing one of their last eight, the much-criticised decision to sack Sean Dyche having been vindicated so far.

Under Mike Jackson, Burnley have returned to their hard-to-beat ways. They fought hard at Tottenham on Sunday where they could easily have taken something.

In the end they lost 1-0 to a disputed penalty but that scoreline means they have only conceded multiple goals once in six games under their caretaker-boss.

The problem ahead of this game is that the odd match out was the reverse fixture with Villa, when Steven Gerrard's team really took them apart, winning 3-1 at Turf Moor with Burnley's goal coming in the last minute.

Jackson will need to formulate a better plan to cope with Villa's attacking strengths. Emi Buendia had a field day at Turf Moor and, given that, it would be no surprise to see him start this one ahead of Philippe Coutinho.

Lucas Digne also caused plenty of problems with his raids down the left - that could be a key area in this contest.

Burnley lost James Tarkowski to a hamstring injury that day as he joined Ben Mee on the sidelines and neither played at Spurs.

1280 James Tarkowski 2019 friendly.jpg

The good news is both men were back in training on Tuesday, although Jackson admitted he could still be forced to play without either. That would be a major blow.

In the absence of his main centre-backs, Jackson bolstered that area in north London, going with a back five, but he may have to be more positive here given the need for some sort of result.

Top-half target

Villa could still finish in the top half - something Gerrard will doubtless by emphasising - but to do so this is must-win.

Sadly for Villa, they've won just two of their last nine - the victories coming against Burnley and now-relegated Norwich - although a more positive slant would say they've lost just one of their last five, and that to Liverpool.

Gerrard has lost Ezri Konsa to injury for this one; Calum Chambers looks set to come in. It's a defensive change which should boost Burnley's win chance, something the market puts at 3.9.

Draw best option?

Given the Clarets have won only two away games all season, it's not a price which sets the pulse racing but it is one which will appeal to those who like to back the more motivated team at this stage of a season.

Villa's 2.1 quote isn't for me either and if pushed in the result market I'd side with the draw at 3.7 - a result which would keep Burnley's fate in their own hands with a home game on the final day to come.

In terms of goals, it's hard to call.

Only 36% of Burnley's games this season have seen over 2.5 goals. In contrast, Villa's equivalent figure is 58%.

I've already highlighted Burnley's defensive strength of late but that was rather thrown to one side by a rampant Villa side at Turf Moor just a couple of weeks ago. It's the unders favourite here at 1.93.

Jump on Digne bandwagon

My bets will therefore come from the sub-markets and could easily be incorporated into Bet Builders.

I'll start with that man Lucas Digne for an anytime assist at 5.0.

He's been in the sort of form which won him plenty of plaudits at Everton a couple of years ago and the Frenchman should get forward plenty down the Villa left.

Burnley were pinned back by Spurs for large parts of Sunday's game when the wide areas were very much in operation and something similar here would be no surprise given the way Villa approached the reverse fixture.

Digne has assisted in two of his last three games while the other match - against Liverpool - saw his cross lead to Villa's goal.

Having shone at Turf Moor, Digne can do so again.

Collins looks a strong bet

Moving on to the shots markets, the Burnley centre-backs look to have been under-rated by the layers.

Nathan Collins has managed at least one shot in nine of his last 11 games yet he's available at 5/6 for another here.

It's not hard to see Villa's tweaked defence being troubled by their visitors on set plays - long a strength of the visitors - and the Collins price looks too good to miss, especially given he had three headed efforts at goal in the reverse fixture.

For the record, he's also 9/2 for 2+ shots, something he's managed four times in the aforementioned study period.

Kevin Long, less likely to play given the Tarkowski fitness update, is also a tempting price at 7/5 for 1+ shot.

He managed two at Spurs on Sunday when he offered a clear threat in the air. Long also managed a shot in his other start this season, while include last term and he's landed this bet in four of his last five starts.

Remember if you back either and they are only on the bench, you can cash-out and get your stake returned.

Opta fact

Burnley have won just two of their last 19 Premier League away games (D7 L10), with only bottom side Norwich (11) scoring fewer goals on the road this term than the Clarets (15).

0 nhận xét Blogger 0 Facebook

Post a Comment