La Liga xG Tips

La Liga xG Tips: Cádiz to survive and Mallorca to fall in Gameweek 38

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides predictions for a tense final-day relegation battle in La Liga...

Rayo to finish with a win

Rayo Vallecano v Levante
Friday, 20:00
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A dead rubber at Vallecas, where Rayo can't quite climb into the top half after successive defeats but can still finish strong. Opponents Levante are already down, though three points would guarantee they don't finish bottom of the pile after a frustrating season. Infogol backs a home win, with the visitors' 2.06 xGA average on the road expected to continue to work against them.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.00

Madrid to clinch best points tally in five years

Real Madrid v Real Betis
Friday, 20:00
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Despite dropping points at Cádiz last time out, Real Madrid can still finish one point better than in their 2019-20 title-winning season if they beat Real Betis at the Bernabéu. The visitors can finish no higher than fifth, thanks to their inferior head-to-head record with Sevilla, and are expected to fall short in their efforts to end the campaign with three successive league victories.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.00

Celta to stay above Valencia

Valencia v Celta Vigo
Saturday, 16:30
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Just one point separates these teams with a week of the season remaining, but Infogol's model doesn't expect Valencia to secure the win they need to leapfrog their opponents at the last. Pepe Bordalás' hosts are winless in eight in the league - or nine including their Copa del Rey final defeat - and Celta are backed to see them off despite Los Che showing signs of life in their last game.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 14.00

Getafe to end the season unbeaten in six

Elche v Getafe
Sunday, 16:30
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While both Elche and Getafe are safe, defeat for either could impact the relegation tie-breaker for the teams below with a complicated head-to-head calculation potentially in store The visitors clinched their survival by holding Barcelona to a draw at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, and an average of just 0.55 xGA across their last five unbeaten games stands them in good stead to extend that run to six.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 11.50

Cádiz to get the win they need

Alavés v Cádiz
Sunday, 19:00
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Cádiz enter the final day in the bottom three, so all they can do is win and hope other results go their way. The good news for Sergio's team is they're up against already-relegated Alavés, who fell short in their must-win game at Levante last time out. The hosts have been underperforming their xGF at Mendizorrotza, and Infogol's model gives the away side the narrowest of edges.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.00

Granada to make sure of survival

Granada v Espanyol
Sunday, 19:00
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Granada sit one point above the drop zone, so they know three points on the final day will definitely be enough to keep them up. Aitor Karanka's side will be worried by their 2.04 xGA average at Nuevo Los Cármenes, but the visitors have averaged 2.22 xGA themselves across their last four games - with just two points to show for it - to give the home side plenty of hope.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.20

Mallorca to fall at the last

Osasuna v Mallorca
Sunday, 19:00
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With Cádiz facing a winnable game a few miles down the road, Mallorca will have to assume only a victory will do as they aim to survive in their first season back in La Liga. Javier Aguirre's side have only spent five weeks in the bottom three all season, but a 1.91 away xGA average is concerning and Infogol's model anticipates disappointment for the team from the Balearics.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 15.00

Barça to leave Villarreal's European hopes in jeopardy

Barcelona v Villarreal
Sunday, 21:00
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After an underwhelming display at home to Real Sociedad last time out, Villarreal could find themselves needing a result at Camp Nou to give themselves a consolation prize of Europa Conference League football. That won't be easy, with Xavi's hosts averaging 2.14 xGF per game at home, and the Yellow Submarine may need to wait nervously on results elsewhere.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 10.00

Real Sociedad v Atléti too close to call

Real Sociedad v Atlético Madrid
Sunday, 21:00
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Real Sociedad have by far the best home defence in La Liga, conceding just seven times at Anoeta, though their real return and their underlying numbers diverge significantly. They close out the season against an Atlético Madrid side who will return to the Champions League next term despite a few scares along the way, and Infogol's model has almost nothing to choose between the teams.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 6.80

Sevilla to stumble over finishing line

Sevilla v Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, 21:00
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After being in the top two as recently as March, Sevilla may be grateful to even have Champions League football next season after winning just two of their last 11 games. Infogol's model anticipates that becoming two from 12 as they welcome an Athletic side whose underlying numbers put them above Julen Lopetegui's men in the xG table but who need the points to merely give themselves a shot at Europe.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 16.50