Madrid Open Men's Day Four Tips

Madrid Open Men's Day Four Tips: Garin looking like underdog value

Second round action at the Madrid Masters ATP event continues on Wednesday, with the remaining 12 matches in the round on the schedule. Dan Weston previews the day ahead...

Djokovic continues Monfils dominance

Unfortunately Denis Shapovalov couldn't bring up a win double for us as he was beaten by Andy Murray in three sets, while in other matches, there was almost a big shock with Jack Draper unable to see out a break lead in set three against Andrey Rublev, who eventually picked up a 7-5 set win in that decider.

Top seed Novak Djokovic eased past Gael Monfils and is now 17-0 in main tour events against the Frenchman, plus two wins in exhibition style tournaments as well. Djokovic now faces Murray tomorrow.

Moving on to today, there's a number of theoretical mismatches with Casper Ruud, Rafa Nadal, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev all priced around the 1.30 mark or shorter, but there's also some pretty competitive-looking clashes on the card as well.

Goffin needing win to help recover ranking

Botic van de Zandschulp has had a really strong last six months or so, translating his high level on the Challenger Tour to the main tour, and the Dutchman faces qualifier David Goffin today. Goffin has struggled in recent times, hence why the former top 10 man had to qualify, and is now ranked outside the top 50.

When I looked at the market lines, I thought van de Zandschulp as a marginal 1.84 favourite looked a decent spot, but Goffin still has reasonable clay numbers - it's on hard courts where his struggles of late have come - and there's a concern that van de Zandschulp may not be fully fit after retiring with a chest issue in the final of Munich last week, although he did get past Pablo Carreno-Busta in a solid round one victory.

Auger-Aliassime still with much to prove on clay

Christian Garin eased past Frances Tiafoe in round one, with after-effects from Tiafoe's run in Estoril a likely problem for the American, and Garin's reward today is a meeting with Felix Auger-Aliassime.

It's Auger-Aliassime who is the 1.53 favourite and I can't help thinking this is pretty short. Since he had a back problem in February, the Canadian has won just a handful of matches, all as a strong favourite, and suffered a number of defeats, particularly on clay of late.

There isn't an abundance of evidence to suggest that Auger-Aliassime is much above the level of the average ATP player on clay right now, and blind-backing him on the surface throughout his career would have yielded a huge loss.

Garin has more clay experience and also has done well in quicker clay, in Houston, this season already, and 12-month clay numbers suggest there's not much between the duo. Given this, the 2.84 on the Chilean looks a decent price in my view.

Korda with slight edge over Musetti

Finally, two Next-Gen players meet in an intriguing clash - Sebastian Korda versus Lorenzo Musetti. Korda picked up an excellent round one win over Reilly Opelka, and he will take the creation of 13 break point chances as a real positive against his big-serving countryman.

Musetti got the better of Ilya Ivashka in round one, after rather struggling through qualifying, needing to come back from a tough spot against Alejandro Moro Canas, who is ranked outside the top 400.

On 12-month clay data, Korda has a slight edge and that's borne out by the market pricing making him the 1.61 favourite to make round three. Having said that, Musetti has done well in clay events of late, and isn't without a chance in a battle of two very talented young players.