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The Championship 2017/18 Season Preview: Big-spending Boro to bounce back

The Title Favourites 
- Aston Villa 7.80 
- Middlesbrough 8.20 
- Fulham 9.80 
 
Just three clubs trade at single figure prices in the 2017/18 Winner market but it's quite surprising to see Aston Villa, and not Middlesbrough, trading as the early title favourites. 
 
Villa were relegated from the Premier League at the end of the 2015/16 season and were rated as second favourites, behind Newcastle, to make an immediate return to the top flight last term. They finished 13th! 
 
The general feeling is that a club's best chance of returning to the Premier League is at the first time of asking, and the statistics certainly bear that out. Since the Premier League's inception, 73 clubs have been relegated with 20 (27.4%) of them returning the very next season. Just seven clubs returned to the Premier League at the second attempt. 
 
Admittedly Villa are potentially much better now than last season's 13th place finish suggests. But I don't see why they've suddenly been elevated to title favourites. 
 
Villa got off to a bad start last term under Roberto Di Matteo, but even under Steve Bruce's guidance they were still no better than a top-eight side. Bruce accumulated 52 points from 35 matches at an average of 1.49 points per game. Over a 46 game season that average equates to around the 68-69 points mark. Norwich finished last season with 70 points, and that was good enough for just an eighth-place finish. 
 
Of course, Villa have made arguably the most high-profile signing in Championship history by snapping up Chelsea legend John Terry on a free transfer. With his ability and experience there is no doubt in my mind that Terry would have been a tremendous squad player at any of the Premier League clubs competing in Europe, he's that good. So obviously he's going to be a huge asset to Villa. 
 
Bruce has also brought in defenders Ahmed Elmohamady and Chris Samba, plus defensive midfielder Glenn Whelan, so it looks at this stage that the Villa boss is putting a huge emphasis on making his side difficult to beat. But you have to have concerns about Villa's scoring ability at the other end. 
 
Jonathan Kodjia was Villa's top goalscorer last season with 19 strikes, but no other player in Bruce's squad managed more than five goals. Surely this an area that Bruce has to strengthen. Kodjia is very capable of improving on last season's tally, but a few months out through injury, or a loss of form, and Villa will need another striker to step up to the plate. Scott Hogan might be it, but I know some Villa fans are crying out for more strength in depth in attack. 
 
In contrast, the goal-shy Middlesbrough that we witnessed in last season's Premier League promises to be a different animal in the Championship. Garry Monk - who has done very little wrong in his brief managerial career - is the man charged with getting Boro back into the Premier League at the first time of asking and with in the region of £40m spent already he looks to have strengthened in all the right areas. 
 
If Middlesbrough can retain the services of Ben Gibson then they will practically have the same back line that had the best defensive record in the country during their promotion season two years ago, with George Friend among the best full-backs in the division and new addition Cyrus Christie on the opposite flank also possessing an attacking mentality. 
 
It's fair to say that Middlesbrough's foreign signings were a bit of a write off last term, but undoubtedly the one that shone was central midfielder Marten de Roon, and he should revel in this division, while Monk's attacking signings look to have plenty of goals in them. 
 
Britt Assombalonga, proven at Championship level with 30 goals in two seasons at Nottingham Forest, has been brought in for a fee of £15m to lead the Boro attack, while £12m capture Martin Braithwaite, former Leeds and Norwich star Jonathan Howson, and recent £6.5m signing Ashley Fletcher can all play a number of roles in attacking midfield, wide, or striking positions. 
 
And it's worth pointing out that Middlesbrough still retain the services of target man Rudy Gestede, proven Championship performer Patrick Bamford, and - at the time of writing - the hugely talented, if somewhat troublesome, Gaston Ramirez. 
 
Middlesbrough possess a lot of similarities to Newcastle last term; recently relegated from the Premier League, a lot of their better players retained, a new manager at the helm, and £40m spent in the transfer market. Newcastle were no bigger than 3.00 to win the Championship, so Middlesbrough at 8.20 have to be the selection. 
 
I called Fulham completely wrong last term, suggesting that they could be an outside bet to be relegated early in the season, so the fact that they finished sixth either says I was massively wide of the mark or that the Cottagers over-achieved somewhat. 
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I'm hoping the answer is closer to the latter as I'm dead against Slavisa Jokanovic's men again this term at what I believe to be a ridiculously short price. They've brought in a few players, defender Marcelo Djalo and midfielder Ibrahima Cisse, but their squad much resembles what it was last term and I'm of the opinion it will fall some way short of being title contenders.</div>
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The Next Wave</div>
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- Wolves 12.00</div>
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- Sheffield Wednesday 12.50</div>
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- Norwich 12.50</div>
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- Derby 16.00</div>
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Wolves were a huge gamble 12 months ago, being backed in from 100.00 to around the 20.00 mark to win the title, and as I wrote at the time, I didn't understand that one bit. Thankfully I was proved correct as Wolves were never out of the bottom half of the table and eventually finished 15th.</div>
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Nuno Espírito Santo - often referred to as just Nuno - is the new man in charge at Molineux and he comes with a decent reputation having led Valencia to a fourth place finish in La Liga a few seasons back. However, he is out to repair a bit of damage to that reputation after he was sacked by Porto at the end of last season for failing to win any silverware.</div>
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Wolves have money to spend, evidenced by the near £16m capture of highly promising 20-year-old midfielder Ruben Neves, but for a club that was rated 20/1 shots to win the title last season - and yet finished just 15th - I have little interest in backing them at almost half those odds this term.</div>
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Having finished sixth and fourth in the last two seasons, and only missing out on promotion when losing to Hull in the 2015/16 play-off final, Sheffield Wednesday look destined to be on the scene again this term.</div>
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Carlos Carvalhal has retained much of the squad that he's worked with for the last two seasons, has made prolific striker Jordan Rhodes a £10m permanent signing from Middlesbrough, and also brought in highly experienced midfielder George Boyd from Premier League outfit Burnley.</div>
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Fernando Forestieri will once again be a pivotal player for the Owls, but if he performs consistently well then Wednesday look like a team that has the ability to contend at the top of the table. With my doubts about Villa and Fulham, and Wolves again looking too short in the markets, then backing Carvalhal's men in the Promotion market at 4.40 should provide a lot of interest throughout the season. Remember, finishing sixth in the table still gives you a chance of promotion.</div>
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At the prices, I much prefer Derby for a run at promotion than Norwich, and to a large extent it's because of the man in charge at the Ipro Stadium.</div>
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Gary Rowett was doing a fine job on a shoestring budget at Birmingham before inexplicably being sacked, but he wasn't out of work long and guided the Rams to four wins and three draws from his nine games in charge at the end of last season.</div>
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Derby were favourites to win the title two seasons ago and they were one of the market leaders last term, so even though they've lost their key player Tom Ince to Huddersfield - they've brought in Andre Wisdom from Liverpool and Tom Huddlestone from Hull - they make a bit of appeal at 5.40 to be promoted and/or at the 3.20 mark in the Top 6 Finish market.</div>
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It's hard to fancy Norwich given they've been far from busy in the transfer market so far and they've recruited a manager - Daniel Farke - with no experience of managing at this level. He was in charge of Borussia Dortmund's reserve side however, and we saw last season that recruiting a manager from that club worked wonders for Huddersfield Town when David Wagner led the Terriers to the Premier League.</div>
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Best of the Rest</div>
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I feel like there's a lot of under-priced clubs in the Winner market, and while I'm not saying they won't perform well - Villa could easily finish third or fourth for example, but look too short to win the title, Fulham could have another solid season without getting into a position to challenge for automatic promotion etc - I do sense there might be some trading value a bit further down.</div>
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Eyes are instantly drawn towards the likes of Hull, Leeds, and Sunderland for example, all of which are available to back at around the 20.00 mark to win the title and at approximately 6.40 in the Promotion market.</div>
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Even though neither have made any eye-catching summer signings, it's very rare that a relegated club from the Premier League trades at 20/1 to make an instant return, therefore the Tigers and the Black Cats must be considered.</div>
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Both will have money to spend should they get onto the coattails of the top six, and they have plenty of experience of Championship football being two of the clubs that have been promoted the most times from this division in the Premier League era. Either, or both, could easily trade much shorter in various markets throughout the season.</div>
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Leeds enjoyed a good finish to the 2015/16 campaign and looked set to finish in the top six last term but some poor end of season form cost them dear. They could easily contend again under new boss Thomas Christiansen.</div>
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Keep an eye out also for Brentford. They've performed with huge credit in recent seasons since coming up from League One and Griffin Park is always a hard place to take points from. Dean Smith's men have finished 5th, 9th, and 10th in the last three Championship seasons, they have a very good striker in Lasse Vibe, and attacking midfielder Jota looks to be a player who will get better and better.</div>
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The Bees look worth chancing in the Top 6 Finish market at anywhere around the 4.00 mark.</div>
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Recommended Bets</div>
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Back Middlesbrough in Winner market @ 8.20</div>
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Back Sheffield Wednesday in Promotion market @ 4.40</div>
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Back Brentford in Top 6 Finish market @ 4.00</div>
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The Championship 2017/18 Season Preview: Big-spending Boro to bounce back

The Title Favourites - Aston Villa 7.80 - Middlesbrough 8.20 - Fulham 9.80 Just three clubs trade at single figure prices in the 2017/...

22:47

The Daily Acca: Score with the Swedes in the Allsvenskan

Bet 1: Back BTTS in AFC United v Djurgardens @ 4/5 
 
This is a Swedish Allsvenskan fixture that sees bottom of the table, AFC Eskilstuna take on the fourth placed, Djurgardens. 
The hosts are struggling following their promotion from the second tier as they have amassed a mere seven points from their opening 16 matches. Conversely, the visitors have won three of their last four to boost their hopes of a top three finish. 
 
Despite their lack of points, Michael Jolley's side have still found the net in five of their seven home games this term. Unfortunately for them, their opponents also scored at least once in those matches and that has of course led to this selection landing in over 71% of their games in front of their own fans. 
 
Djurgarden fired a blank in their opening away outing of the campaign but since then they have scored at least once in each of their six fixtures on the road. They did keep a couple of clean sheets during that period, but their three most recent efforts have seen them concede six times in total - with two of their opponents being in the bottom half of the division. 
 
Bet 2: Hacken @ 3/4 
 
The second leg of today's Acca comes from the same division as BK Hacken should prove too strong for the visit of Orebro SK. 
 
Mikael Stahre's men are up in eighth place in the Swedish top flight and they come into the game on the back of two decent away results - a victory over Jonkopings Sodra and a draw at the second placed, Sirius. 
 
They did lose when they last turned out at this ground, but that was a narrow 1-0 defeat against runaway leaders, Malmo FF, and prior to that it was three wins from five at home. 
 
Orebro also come into the game having taken four points from a possible six as they played a home and away double header against IFK Goteborg. It is worth noting however that the 2-2 draw that they achieved in the away match was facilitated by a red card for the hosts, as the score was 2-0 with just nine minutes left when Goteborg were reduced to 10 men. 
 
Bet 3: Under 2.5 Goals in Auxerre v Lens @ 8/13 
The third and final selection today comes from France as Auxerre and Lens begin their Ligue Two campaigns in what should end up being a relatively low-scoring affair. 
 
Given that this is the first game of the season for both clubs, I can't really give you many recent stats to highlight why under 2.5 goals is decent value. What I can do however, is point out the trends from last year. 
 
Auxerre narrowly avoided relegation and it was solely down to their inability to score often enough. They were the division's lowest scorers and their matches just 1.79 goals each time - leading to 29 of their 38 fixtures seeing under 2.5 backers collect. 
 
Lens had a much higher average at the 2.61 mark, but that was aided by a few very high-scoring games at the tail-end of the year when they were pushing for a promotion place. Over half of their games still saw the ball hit the net on two occasions or fewer and they scored one or less in five of their six pre-season friendlies. 
 
Recommended Acca 
Back BTTS in AFC United v Djurgardens @ 4/5 
Back Hacken @ 3/4 
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Auxerre v Lens @ 8/13 
 
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The Daily Acca: Score with the Swedes in the Allsvenskan

Bet 1: Back BTTS in AFC United v Djurgardens @ 4/5 This is a Swedish Allsvenskan fixture that sees bottom of the table, AFC Eskilstuna tak...

22:40

League Two 2017/18 Season Preview: Get your loot on Luton to take the title

Two teams occupy more than a quarter of the League Two outright book and a strong case can be made to say that's not enough. 
 
Over the summer, a couple of chief executives referred to a document that did the rounds in May, showing last season's playing budget for all 24 clubs in descending order. The identity of specific clubs was protected but Portsmouth and Doncaster were immediately identified as the two standing head and shoulders above the rest, while conventional wisdom agreed that Plymouth and Luton were the next two on the list, bridging a sizeable gap between the haves and the have-nots. 
 
Money makes Mansfield the rightful favourites 
 
So basically, the top four spenders occupied the top four places and you don't need to be a private detective to work out that antepost favourites Mansfield are top dogs in the salary stakes this time around, while Luton have responded to their near miss by pumping most of the money received for Cameron McGeehan and Jack Marriott back into their wage bill. Both clubs clearly mean business. 
 
Not much is secret nowadays because agents are hardly renowned for their confidentiality when trying to cut the best deal for their clients. And once it became apparent what certain players were commanding, and that Mansfield were willing to pay it, everybody else effectively took a back seat and waited for Steve Evans to finish his business. There was no point even trying to compete. 
 
By the end of May, the Stags had completed 11 incoming transfers, a cast of stellar names bolstering a squad that would be on course for 72 points if they only maintained the standards set over the last 30 matches with Evans at the helm. Now, on any given weekend, the Glaswegian will name a bench that consists of seven players who would walk into almost any other team in the division, and maybe one or two outside of the 18 as well. 
 
Ordinarily, this scenario might create its own set of problems but Evans is as ruthless as they come. He likes a variety of options and loves milking competition for places. Anyone spitting their dummy out runs the risk of humiliation - both in private and in public. They've all taken good money and when you dance with the devil, you wait for the music to stop. 
 
So if you plan on trading the exchange market over the next nine months, you might want to keep Mansfield onside - they could walk it. But as an ante-post punt, Luton arguably represent the better title value at 8.00. 
 
Jones could make Luton spectacular 
 
So far, Nathan Jones has underwhelmed in relation to his billing as a top-notch managerial prospect but he has made enough progress to suggest the Hatters will set the benchmark. Last season, they had everything but a cutting edge. They might have lost McGeehan and Marriott but they've gained bucketloads of experience in Marek Stech, Alan McCormack and Andrew Shinnie, plus a 20-goal striker in James Collins. 
 
With Jones, much like Pep Guardiola, you get the impression his intensity can have a draining effect on unassuming players but his ideas are constantly building towards something bigger. If those ideas are now fully ingrained and Luton start to play off the cuff, the results could be spectacular. Ninety points wouldn't be a stretch. 
 
Stevenage a promotion selection with question marks over chasing pack 
 
The case for the top two is only made stronger by question marks residing over the next three teams in the betting, all of whom are new to the division and must adjust to circumstances and surroundings. In the past decade, only eight out of 40 teams coming down from League One and four out of 20 teams coming up from non-league have finished in the top seven - a 4/1 shot in both cases. 
 
Coventry might be a big name but operate on a shoestring under SISU and Mark Robins, although highly capable of steadying the rockiest of ships, has no prior experience of mounting a genuine promotion charge or any track record of top-end league success. The Sky Blues must also confront a potential home advantage problem, as most visiting teams will treat their trip to the Ricoh as a monumental event. 
 
Swindon have changed their ethos and start from scratch under David Flitcroft. The Robins have waved goodbye to three of their biggest stalwarts in Nathan Thompson, Yaser Kasim and Jonathan Obika, removing the spine on which an instant challenge might otherwise have been built, and the jury is out on nearly all of the new arrivals. Flitcroft spent big money in his last job at Bury but only sneaked automatic through the back door on the final day of the 2014/15 season. 
 
Lincoln are building on much stronger foundations but their glorious FA Cup run might come back to haunt them, as the media exposure that came with it revealed so much about how they operate. Danny Cowley might be an impressive marginal gains exponent but he's about to encounter a level of tactical nuance he is simply unaccustomed to. 
 
All of which means there's ample value to be found in the middle order and Stevenage look like the standout bet in the promotion market at 7.00. The Boro made giant strides under Darren Sarll last season, looking like genuine challengers for automatic when posting ten wins in 13 matches from late January before running out of steam. 
 
Sarll is a shrewd operator. He has created a whole greater than the sum of its parts at Broadhall Way and he was crystal clear in his thinking going into the close-season that stamina was the issue. That clear focus should serve them well. If Stevenage can impose themselves sooner and sustain it for longer, they will be there or thereabouts. 
 
Sliding Yeovil heading out of the division 
 
Finally, stick a point on Yeovil for relegation at 4/1. The Glovers have been on a downward spiral for the past four years, dropping down two divisions and finishing in the bottom six of the basement for the past two seasons. Their win ratio in that time is just 22 per cent and they finished last season with just three wins in 27. 
 
Recommended Bets 
1pt Luton to win the title at 8.00 
1pt Stevenage to win promotion at 7.00 
1pt Yeovil to be relegated at 5.00 
 
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League Two 2017/18 Season Preview: Get your loot on Luton to take the title

Two teams occupy more than a quarter of the League Two outright book and a strong case can be made to say that's not enough. Over the ...

22:38

League One 2017/18 Season Preview: Massive ante-post price for Argyle to go well

The ante-post League One column has seen some near misses (and some misses) in the last two seasons. We went pretty close with Burton Albion at 31/1 two years ago, although the pick of Bolton last term can hardly be described as 'near' - they were 14 points behind Sheffield United who finally justified their price as favourites in the third tier. The Blades hit a run of form after a shocking start and were the best team by miles. 
 
The importance of having a striker who scores is crucial in this division. United's Billy Sharp hit 30 last year compared to the ten of Bolton's Gary Madine. That's the difference. 
 
Last season was profitable for the backers of favourites and fancied teams of course. Chelsea and Newcastle done the business in the higher leagues, whilst the Blades and Portsmouth ensured the big names got out of their divisions.  
 
This season we have Championship relegated teams Wigan Athletic, Rotherham and Blackburn Rovers, whilst the promoted sides include League Two title winners Portsmouth. Also up are Doncaster, Blackpool and Plymouth. 
 
Winner Odds 
 
The top of the market is dominated by two teams dropping down a level in Blackburn Rovers (4/1) and Wigan Athletic (7/1), whilst Portsmouth's price at 8/1 looks short enough. 
 
Let's deal with Rovers first, who had a torrid time in the Championship last term. The worry is obviously the club's freefall current state, but manager Tony Mowbray has been backed in the transfer market in signing Bradley Dack for £750,000. The other major 'in' of note is Peter Whittingham from Cardiff. I've always enjoyed watching the silky midfielder and his cultured left foot - and he could be a cut above at this level. The goals should come from experienced striker Danny Graham.  
 
Mowbray wasn't a massive success at Coventry but at least he knows the division. Considering Sheffield United were 6.80 to win the league last year, the 4/1 Sportsbook price of Rovers offers no value.  
 
The same comments apply to Wigan at 7/1. Surely there are better bets around?  
 
Former Portsmouth boss Paul Cook has taken over at the north west club despite guiding Pompey to the League Two title last term. His move took me by surprise, but as a former player, his understanding of the club ethos was important. As will be his knowledge of the lower leagues.  
 
Signings however of Terrell Thomas, Gavin Massey and Chey Dunkley are not exactly big names, and Cook will have a job in trying to fend off Championship interest in Sam Morsy and Max Power.  
 
If Pompey's price was around the 14 mark, I would be interested, as I like the appointment of Kenny Jackett. The 55-year-old has twice led sides to promotion out of this division and he knows how to manage a club with big expectations. A massive 14,500 season tickets have been sold at Fratton Park - and I for one am pleased they are back at this level.  
 
I've stated before that promoted sides do well and the gap isn't massive. Oxford and Bristol Rovers were solid last year but never really kicked into the play-off places. If they were 14/1 or more I would be interested, the price at 8/1, though, is too short.  
 
For that money we can have the same bet with Bradford - a rock solid, proven team at this level who were beaten in the play-off final last season. However, they have lost a couple of key players in Billy Clarke and James Meredith. It was a surprise they were allowed to leave. Manager Stuart McCall confirmed his commitment in staying at the club following a bit of speculation - but surely this summer should have been the time to strengthen rather than wave goodbye to big names.  
 
Their transfer dealings have been less than spectacular and they drew too many games last term (19).  
 
Of the promoted sides, Plymouth Argyle are worth a punt at a big price 28/1. I've seen them a couple of times at Leyton Orient (ah those were the days!), and they were a big, physical unit. The best possible news was the new deal for Graham Carey - I like his creativity.  
 
The manager Derek Adams brings an air of stability and good team spirit, and I would never be put off by backing a promoted side - those qualities went a long way to Burton's success two seasons ago. Motherwell winger Lionel Ainsworth is an interesting addition, and it seems they have been written off before a ball has been kicked. They had 87 points alongside Pompey in League Two - yet we can back them at over three times the price. 
 
 
Top Six Finish 
 
Phil Brown's Southend United are definitely worth a poke at 20/1 as an outside bet for the title, but they represent a fair 3/1 price to finish in the top six. 
 
They were not too far away last term and at several points were on the cusp of the play-offs. However, like so many teams at this level, when that talk airs itself, players tend to get nosebleeds and panic for some reason. Walsall and Rochdale have been classic examples in the past. 
 
The Shrimpers played some decent stuff in patches last season, and I like the way Phil Brown kept at it despite a poor start last August. Their form in April when they needed to make a proper charge also tailed off, but generally they were a good side at home and they had a bit of presence up front with Nile Ranger. He hit eight goals in 27 appearances - and they always looked a better team when he started.  
 
Ranger was jailed for eight months back in May but will get the chance to relaunch his career looking at the latest quotes from manager Brown.  
 
Summer transfer activity has seen moves to bring in Michael Turner and Michael Kightly, and those additions look excellent business. We should see better from former West Ham left-back Stephen Hendrie too. I like them as a team.  
 
I am watching Peterborough closely over the next couple of weeks, as they are priced up at 5/2 for a top six finish.  
 
This is a big season at the ABAX and they need a fast start - which hasn't always been the case. However, I like watching Posh and always enjoy them for their entertaining football.  
 
The question is will they keep hold of Marcus Maddison? Chairman Darragh MacAnthony has said he won't leave for less than £1million, and on his day I agree with MacAthony that he is the best player in the division.  
 
My old favourites Rochdale didn't quite make the short list, but Keith Hill is a brilliant manager with the resources at his disposal. He's also one of the most entertaining with his quotes. He's a bit of a magician the way he conjures a top-half finish. 
 
Relegation Market 
 
The surprising name at such short odds are Gillingham at 13/8. They were awful last term and only just survived by the skin of their teeth. Losing Bradley Dack was a blow - but the £750,000 should offset that. He wasn't quite the same player in the last campaign for whatever reason, but it was at the back where the Kent club had big problems. 
 
New director of football Peter Taylor will work with head coach Aidy Pennock, and it will be interesting to see if they will spend any of the Dack cash.  
 
Bury are usually there or thereabouts in this market - although I did recommend laying them at around 6/4 for last term's preview. They survived, but it isn't the most exciting long term bet to tie up money for 10 months by laying 6/4 shots!  
 
The Shakers should be safe despite being 4/1 for this, as I'm a fan of their manager Lee Clark. I also like their strike force of Nicky Ajose and Jermaine Beckford - and I'll be looking at Over 2.5 Goals in their early matches. They need to replace James Vaughan's 24 goals last term, but I think they can do it. Vaughan was surprisingly signed by Sunderland. 
 
My tentative selection here is Walsall at 5/2. I wasn't massively convinced by manager Jon Whitney last term, and a final position of finishing 14th was way down from reaching the play-off finals the season before. They finished with just one victory from their last ten games and I haven't exactly been blown away with their transfers so far. 
 
League One Ante-Post Recommended Bets 
Back Plymouth Argyle @ 28/1 to win the title (Sportsbook price) 
Back Southend United Top Six @ 3/1 (Sportsbook price) 
Back Walsall for Relegation @ 5/2 (Sportsbook price) 
 
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmrbldicyiUzCn3qS1fbbXkjazAQ5vERHTbOCcEM-YRv_DdXA9V4el8jtiPiNMtCtujL5mUw1AA9xRQWUVx-rSqybEdu-xs8myJcllLShbgbFrU4svCyibGIKiKvomvgGxby9bGxnOsw0/s1600/Plymouth-Argyle-Media-Access.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="615" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmrbldicyiUzCn3qS1fbbXkjazAQ5vERHTbOCcEM-YRv_DdXA9V4el8jtiPiNMtCtujL5mUw1AA9xRQWUVx-rSqybEdu-xs8myJcllLShbgbFrU4svCyibGIKiKvomvgGxby9bGxnOsw0/s640/Plymouth-Argyle-Media-Access.jpg" width="640" /></a>

League One 2017/18 Season Preview: Massive ante-post price for Argyle to go well

The ante-post League One column has seen some near misses (and some misses) in the last two seasons. We went pretty close with Burton Albion...

22:34

ATP Tour Week 24: Dimitrov with little to fear in Washington

High quality field in Washington this week 
 
 
With last week's event in Atlanta seeing the commencement of the US summer hard court season, the main focus this week is the Washington 500 event, which at around $2m offers considerably the most prize money of this week's three events. 
 
The format in the American capital is a strange 48 man field, with 16 first round matches and 16 players receiving first round byes, and the prize money has attracted a decent quality field, with Dominic Thiem top seed among four top ten players. 
 
 
Conditions expected to be quick, and similar to Atlanta last week 
 
 
Conditions at Rock Creek Park are expected to be very quick indeed, with 83.9% of service games being held in the last three years at the venue - over 4% above the ATP hard court mean, and decent servers certainly benefit with a high 0.69 aces per game count. 
 
On this basis, it's pretty fair to assume that conditions will be very similar to those experienced at Atlanta this week, where John Isner took the title at his second home - his second consecutive title in as many weeks. While this form is an obvious positive for the big American, it should be tempered by the fact that the quality of his opponents in the last fortnight has been extremely weak, and he may be getting fatigued. 
 
Despite conditions being similar to those in Georgia, the recent event winners don't fit quite as neatly into the American, big-server profile, although big-servers have claimed five titles in the last ten years - Andy Roddick, Milos Raonic and Juan Martin del Potro (on three occasions). Isner has been runner-up three times, while Ivo Karlovic and Vasek Pospisil also are big-servers who have lost in the final in recent years. 
 
 
Fitness doubts around many of the market leaders 
 
 
Even with the slight bias towards big-servers, we can certainly swerve Raonic and Del Potro, despite their venue success - both have questionable fitness while Nick Kyrgios and Kei Nishikori also fit into this category. Top seed Thiem has performed much worse post-Wimbledon in his young career so far, almost definitely due to his arduous scheduling resulting in fatigue in the latter stages of the season. 
 
This leaves us with the likes of Kevin Anderson, Alexander Zverev, Jack Sock, Steve Johnson, Grigor Dimitrov, Gilles Muller and the aforementioned Isner as the big-servers with a realistic chance of success, and of these, it is Dimitrov (2017 combined hold/break on hard court of 113.7%) and Zverev (106.6%) with the best hard court data this year. 
 
Dimitrov with high expectations based on strong data 
 
 
However, in the case of the younger Zverev brother, available at 15/2, his data is flattered by key point over performance, and on this basis, Dimitrov at 14/1 looks a better choice at bigger odds, with Sock (105.0%) another worth looking at in further detail given he has under-performed by 5.7% on break points on return on hard courts this year, and therefore should have plenty of upside - the American is available at 14.50 on the Exchange. 
 
Assessing the draw, Dimitrov's segment features Steve Johnson as the seed, and contains dangerous young prospects Daniil Medvedev, Reilly Opelka, Hyeon Chung and Kyle Edmund, but he'd be a heavy favourite against all of these. He'd then be likely to face either Alexander Zverev or Nick Kyrgios - who is almost certainly not fully fit - and is in the bottom half of the draw with fellow fitness doubts Del Potro and Nishikori. 
 
Given this, the draw could easily open up for the Bulgarian and he can be backed at 14/1 to take the title - he shouldn't fear anyone in this field. 
 
 
Weak event anticipated in Los Cabos 
 
 
The other hard court event this week takes place in Los Cabos, Mexico, a purpose-built tourist hot-spot, and the quality of the field is utterly woeful, with many players ranked over the 100 mark being able to take spots in the main draw. 
 
Tomas Berdych, at 11/5, is the event favourite, with Sam Querrey and defending champion Ivo Karlovic slightly further back in the betting. Fernando Verdasco, Adrian Mannarino and Albert Ramos are further market contenders. 
 
With the event new on tour last year, we have a smaller sample than ideal to work with regarding assessing court speed, but 80.1% of service games were held in 2016, slightly higher than the ATP hard court mean, and with the aces per game count marginally higher than average too, I'm happy to grade venue conditions slightly faster than average, and unlikely to particularly benefit any specific player genre. 
 
I'm rather unenthused by the market prices on players here, with no outstanding value, although the 33/1 on Taylor Fritz could provide some interest this week if the young American gets back to his best. 
 
 
Alpine specialist Haase with potential in Kitzbuhel 
 
 
Back in Europe, the Alpine town of Kitzbuhel plays out the final clay court event of the season, and at almost 800m above sea level, altitude comes into play. Despite this, there is little historical evidence of this fact when looking at data on serving - just 73.4% of service games have been held at the venue in the last three years - and any effects certainly are not as profound as in tournaments such as Bogota or Quito in South America. 
 
Field quality is stronger this year than is often the case, with few players historically being keen on prioritising a European clay event with the main American hard court swing starting next week. 
 
Robin Haase has taken advantage of this, with a magnificent 13-3 venue record here, winning in consecutive years in 2011 and 2012, and performed well in similar conditions in Gstaad last week, making the semi-finals. With good clay data this year (107.4% combined hold/break percentage) he looks to be a very solid outside pick at 12/1 with the Sportsbook. The out of form duo of Santiago Giraldo and Carlos Berlocq stand in the way of the Dutchman and a potential quarter-final with defending champion Paolo Lorenzi. 
 
 
Fitness doubts surround tournament favourite Cuevas 
 
 
This quarter is the second in the draw, in the same half as the top seed and 5/1 tournament favourite Pablo Cuevas, and I'm viewing this as a huge positive also - since missing the entire grass season with injury, the Uruguayan has yet to win a match on his favoured clay, losing to Henri Laaksonen in Bastad, and Andrey Kuznetsov last week in Bastad. Cuevas, this year, has also not hit the heights of his 2015 and 2016 clay campaigns, and doesn't look to represent much value at this price. 
 
In the bottom half of the draw, 2015 champion Philipp Kohlschreiber - another with a solid venue record - is unlikely to be fit after he retired with a muscle injury in his semi-final defeat to Florian Mayer in Hamburg on Saturday, and Jiri Vesely could take advantage in a weak quarter - although odds of 13.50 about the Czech don't particularly represent huge value, in my opinion. 
 
Finally, in the bottom quarter, second seed Fabio Fognini, at 13/2, has a tricky-looking bracket, with Andrey Kuznetsov, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Jan-Lennard Struff and another altitude specialist Thomaz Bellucci all obvious threats. The Italian has shown some ability in past years regarding backing up a tournament win with another, but this price doesn't strike me as being particularly noteworthy. 
 
 
Recommended Bets 
 
Back Grigor Dimitrov at 14/1 to win ATP Washington 
Back Robin Haase each-way at 12/1 to win ATP Kitzbuhel 
 
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0QlmlsbeOHTWRsePmSU5ujgULPMWX1txIVWDnAL_Yx9Gk0IQ6oimpKtsgiLIYEe2oQL9H_O0SuBO53BycY3VrxR6XCMAQKYZgYciIRMBUCdsmiTXqhSBJP22nKBPRqw-3Y4mCMlwKuMM/s1600/grigor-dimitrov3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="461" data-original-width="640" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0QlmlsbeOHTWRsePmSU5ujgULPMWX1txIVWDnAL_Yx9Gk0IQ6oimpKtsgiLIYEe2oQL9H_O0SuBO53BycY3VrxR6XCMAQKYZgYciIRMBUCdsmiTXqhSBJP22nKBPRqw-3Y4mCMlwKuMM/s640/grigor-dimitrov3.jpg" width="640" /></a>

ATP Tour Week 24: Dimitrov with little to fear in Washington

High quality field in Washington this week With last week's event in Atlanta seeing the commencement of the US summer hard court seas...

22:30

The Punter's De-Brief: Market carnage as long-odds on shot Levy loses

After a humdinger of a final round in Hamburg, my pre-event pick and defending champ, Alexander Levy, stood on the 18th tee at the Porsche European Open with a one stroke lead yesterday afternoon but he couldn't match playing partner Jordan Smith's birdie four and the tournament went in to extra time. 
 
Smith, who was generally a 48.00 chance, made a fantastic up-and down from the rough behind the green to get into the playoff but he looked doomed at the first extra hole, when after a heavy-handed chip, he missed a 20 foot birdie putt. Levy was left with three feet for birdie to make a successful defence of the title but, as you'll see in the below clip, it wasn't to be. 
 
Over £17k was matched on Levy at the minimum odds of 1.01 but he was visibly shaken by his missed opportunity. It felt inevitable that Smith would go on to win and he did at the very next hole, making a brilliant birdie despite finding the rough off the tee. 
 
Smith's rise has been fast and impressive. He only turned pro three years ago and yesterday's victory is the fourth of his career after two wins on the EuroPro Tour in 2015 and victory on the Challenge Tour last year. He's on an upward curve and I don't think he's reached the apex just yet. 
 
Over at the RBC Canadian Open, defending champions, Jhonattan Vegas, who was generally a 180.00 chance before the off, although he did touch a high of 220.00, retained the title in extra time after he and Dave Tindall's fancy, Charley Hoffman, both finished the tournament on 21-under-par. Vegas came from five back to win last year and from three adrift this time around. 
 
Hoffman, who had led with a round to go, began the final round with a pair of birdies and he was matched at a low of 1.80 when he had five foot for birdie at the third to increase his lead but he missed that and he needed to birdie two of the last three holes to take the tournament in to extra time. 
 
Vegas is the third player to defend his title on the PGA Tour this season following successful defences by Justin Thomas at the CIMB Classic and by Daniel Berger at the FedEx St Jude Classic. 
 
 
My Bets 
 
It's always nice to see a pre-tournament pick win so Levy losing left a bit of a nasty taste but I never complain when you get plenty of chances to profit in-running. I didn't lay any of the 1.01 unfortunately but I got him layed at 2.10 early on and I layed him again for plenty at 1.20 so although he got beat; it was a great result really. And having my each-way pick, Zander Lombard, place at 150/1 was the icing on the cake. 
 
I layed the winner at the Senior Open, Bernhard Langer, for a few quid at very long odds-on in-running and I drew a blank at the RBC Canadian Open but I layed Hoffman at 1.90 as he played the third hole so some of my losses at that event were recouped. I backed him back a few holes later at 2.90 to clear the liability and I finished up trading him and the winner back and fore throughout the final round. I still lost on the tournament but only modestly and it's been a decent enough week. 
 
The Perils of a New Course 
 
For the second time this season we've had a new course hit the European Tour rota with a monstrous yardage and for a second time, it hasn't played anywhere close to its advertised length. 
 
Back in March, short-hitter, SSP Chawrasia, who currently ranks 216th for Driving Distance on the European Tour, successfully defended his Indian Open title on a course that was supposed to be 7,650 yards long and then this week, Siddikur Rahman, who's every bit as short off the tee as SSP, finished third at a track with an official yardage of 7,831 yards! 
 
Before the off, the North Course at the Glen Eagle Resort was described as "the longest used on the European Tour" and it was reported to be "one of the 10 longest worldwide." So how on earth did someone unable to drive much further than 260 yards manage to compete this week? 
 
Back in March, the tournament officials reduced the yardage significantly because the Gary Player designed DLF Golf and Country Club was deemed to be just too difficult to be played at its full distance and the yardage was dramatically reduced this week because of the wet conditions. 
 
It's very difficult to know how a brand new venue is going to play and the task is made so much harder when the European Tour website offers up no information but what these two results tell us is that we can't just assume the course is going to be set up as long as the yardage suggests it will. 
 
I'll be back tomorrow with my previews for both this week's events - the Barracuda Championship and the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, where Rory McIlroy will be playing with a new caddie!. 
 
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7LqyZpx36ZYbpKBzufOJuD3SRGZRD-TtTIrVdsC3ObwDHvbvDbcZoWcPEiHX39OBtZFShk1Jsl1lItoqCywEeAhi_5jJu1BPpAQbUmnNq-bDDfYNlTqmQcUvznwD_bhBPf2wHZJOqCGM/s1600/Alexander-Levy-1024_3215127.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="768" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7LqyZpx36ZYbpKBzufOJuD3SRGZRD-TtTIrVdsC3ObwDHvbvDbcZoWcPEiHX39OBtZFShk1Jsl1lItoqCywEeAhi_5jJu1BPpAQbUmnNq-bDDfYNlTqmQcUvznwD_bhBPf2wHZJOqCGM/s640/Alexander-Levy-1024_3215127.jpg" width="640" /></a>

The Punter's De-Brief: Market carnage as long-odds on shot Levy loses

After a humdinger of a final round in Hamburg, my pre-event pick and defending champ, Alexander Levy, stood on the 18th tee at the Porsche E...

19:52

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The Championship 2017/18 Season Preview: Big-spending Boro to bounce back

The Title Favourites
- Aston Villa 7.80
- Middlesbrough 8.20
- Fulham 9.80

Just three clubs trade at single figure prices in the 2017/18 Winner market but it's quite surprising to see Aston Villa, and not Middlesbrough, trading as the early title favourites.

Villa were relegated from the Premier League at the end of the 2015/16 season and were rated as second favourites, behind Newcastle, to make an immediate return to the top flight last term. They finished 13th!

The general feeling is that a club's best chance of returning to the Premier League is at the first time of asking, and the statistics certainly bear that out. Since the Premier League's inception, 73 clubs have been relegated with 20 (27.4%) of them returning the very next season. Just seven clubs returned to the Premier League at the second attempt.

Admittedly Villa are potentially much better now than last season's 13th place finish suggests. But I don't see why they've suddenly been elevated to title favourites.

Villa got off to a bad start last term under Roberto Di Matteo, but even under Steve Bruce's guidance they were still no better than a top-eight side. Bruce accumulated 52 points from 35 matches at an average of 1.49 points per game. Over a 46 game season that average equates to around the 68-69 points mark. Norwich finished last season with 70 points, and that was good enough for just an eighth-place finish.

Of course, Villa have made arguably the most high-profile signing in Championship history by snapping up Chelsea legend John Terry on a free transfer. With his ability and experience there is no doubt in my mind that Terry would have been a tremendous squad player at any of the Premier League clubs competing in Europe, he's that good. So obviously he's going to be a huge asset to Villa.

Bruce has also brought in defenders Ahmed Elmohamady and Chris Samba, plus defensive midfielder Glenn Whelan, so it looks at this stage that the Villa boss is putting a huge emphasis on making his side difficult to beat. But you have to have concerns about Villa's scoring ability at the other end.

Jonathan Kodjia was Villa's top goalscorer last season with 19 strikes, but no other player in Bruce's squad managed more than five goals. Surely this an area that Bruce has to strengthen. Kodjia is very capable of improving on last season's tally, but a few months out through injury, or a loss of form, and Villa will need another striker to step up to the plate. Scott Hogan might be it, but I know some Villa fans are crying out for more strength in depth in attack.

In contrast, the goal-shy Middlesbrough that we witnessed in last season's Premier League promises to be a different animal in the Championship. Garry Monk - who has done very little wrong in his brief managerial career - is the man charged with getting Boro back into the Premier League at the first time of asking and with in the region of £40m spent already he looks to have strengthened in all the right areas.

If Middlesbrough can retain the services of Ben Gibson then they will practically have the same back line that had the best defensive record in the country during their promotion season two years ago, with George Friend among the best full-backs in the division and new addition Cyrus Christie on the opposite flank also possessing an attacking mentality.

It's fair to say that Middlesbrough's foreign signings were a bit of a write off last term, but undoubtedly the one that shone was central midfielder Marten de Roon, and he should revel in this division, while Monk's attacking signings look to have plenty of goals in them.

Britt Assombalonga, proven at Championship level with 30 goals in two seasons at Nottingham Forest, has been brought in for a fee of £15m to lead the Boro attack, while £12m capture Martin Braithwaite, former Leeds and Norwich star Jonathan Howson, and recent £6.5m signing Ashley Fletcher can all play a number of roles in attacking midfield, wide, or striking positions.

And it's worth pointing out that Middlesbrough still retain the services of target man Rudy Gestede, proven Championship performer Patrick Bamford, and - at the time of writing - the hugely talented, if somewhat troublesome, Gaston Ramirez.

Middlesbrough possess a lot of similarities to Newcastle last term; recently relegated from the Premier League, a lot of their better players retained, a new manager at the helm, and £40m spent in the transfer market. Newcastle were no bigger than 3.00 to win the Championship, so Middlesbrough at 8.20 have to be the selection.

I called Fulham completely wrong last term, suggesting that they could be an outside bet to be relegated early in the season, so the fact that they finished sixth either says I was massively wide of the mark or that the Cottagers over-achieved somewhat.

I'm hoping the answer is closer to the latter as I'm dead against Slavisa Jokanovic's men again this term at what I believe to be a ridiculously short price. They've brought in a few players, defender Marcelo Djalo and midfielder Ibrahima Cisse, but their squad much resembles what it was last term and I'm of the opinion it will fall some way short of being title contenders.

The Next Wave

- Wolves 12.00

- Sheffield Wednesday 12.50

- Norwich 12.50

- Derby 16.00

Wolves were a huge gamble 12 months ago, being backed in from 100.00 to around the 20.00 mark to win the title, and as I wrote at the time, I didn't understand that one bit. Thankfully I was proved correct as Wolves were never out of the bottom half of the table and eventually finished 15th.

Nuno Espírito Santo - often referred to as just Nuno - is the new man in charge at Molineux and he comes with a decent reputation having led Valencia to a fourth place finish in La Liga a few seasons back. However, he is out to repair a bit of damage to that reputation after he was sacked by Porto at the end of last season for failing to win any silverware.

Wolves have money to spend, evidenced by the near £16m capture of highly promising 20-year-old midfielder Ruben Neves, but for a club that was rated 20/1 shots to win the title last season - and yet finished just 15th - I have little interest in backing them at almost half those odds this term.

Having finished sixth and fourth in the last two seasons, and only missing out on promotion when losing to Hull in the 2015/16 play-off final, Sheffield Wednesday look destined to be on the scene again this term.

Carlos Carvalhal has retained much of the squad that he's worked with for the last two seasons, has made prolific striker Jordan Rhodes a £10m permanent signing from Middlesbrough, and also brought in highly experienced midfielder George Boyd from Premier League outfit Burnley.

Fernando Forestieri will once again be a pivotal player for the Owls, but if he performs consistently well then Wednesday look like a team that has the ability to contend at the top of the table. With my doubts about Villa and Fulham, and Wolves again looking too short in the markets, then backing Carvalhal's men in the Promotion market at 4.40 should provide a lot of interest throughout the season. Remember, finishing sixth in the table still gives you a chance of promotion.

At the prices, I much prefer Derby for a run at promotion than Norwich, and to a large extent it's because of the man in charge at the Ipro Stadium.

Gary Rowett was doing a fine job on a shoestring budget at Birmingham before inexplicably being sacked, but he wasn't out of work long and guided the Rams to four wins and three draws from his nine games in charge at the end of last season.

Derby were favourites to win the title two seasons ago and they were one of the market leaders last term, so even though they've lost their key player Tom Ince to Huddersfield - they've brought in Andre Wisdom from Liverpool and Tom Huddlestone from Hull - they make a bit of appeal at 5.40 to be promoted and/or at the 3.20 mark in the Top 6 Finish market.

It's hard to fancy Norwich given they've been far from busy in the transfer market so far and they've recruited a manager - Daniel Farke - with no experience of managing at this level. He was in charge of Borussia Dortmund's reserve side however, and we saw last season that recruiting a manager from that club worked wonders for Huddersfield Town when David Wagner led the Terriers to the Premier League.

Best of the Rest

I feel like there's a lot of under-priced clubs in the Winner market, and while I'm not saying they won't perform well - Villa could easily finish third or fourth for example, but look too short to win the title, Fulham could have another solid season without getting into a position to challenge for automatic promotion etc - I do sense there might be some trading value a bit further down.

Eyes are instantly drawn towards the likes of Hull, Leeds, and Sunderland for example, all of which are available to back at around the 20.00 mark to win the title and at approximately 6.40 in the Promotion market.

Even though neither have made any eye-catching summer signings, it's very rare that a relegated club from the Premier League trades at 20/1 to make an instant return, therefore the Tigers and the Black Cats must be considered.

Both will have money to spend should they get onto the coattails of the top six, and they have plenty of experience of Championship football being two of the clubs that have been promoted the most times from this division in the Premier League era. Either, or both, could easily trade much shorter in various markets throughout the season.

Leeds enjoyed a good finish to the 2015/16 campaign and looked set to finish in the top six last term but some poor end of season form cost them dear. They could easily contend again under new boss Thomas Christiansen.

Keep an eye out also for Brentford. They've performed with huge credit in recent seasons since coming up from League One and Griffin Park is always a hard place to take points from. Dean Smith's men have finished 5th, 9th, and 10th in the last three Championship seasons, they have a very good striker in Lasse Vibe, and attacking midfielder Jota looks to be a player who will get better and better.

The Bees look worth chancing in the Top 6 Finish market at anywhere around the 4.00 mark.

Recommended Bets

Back Middlesbrough in Winner market @ 8.20

Back Sheffield Wednesday in Promotion market @ 4.40

Back Brentford in Top 6 Finish market @ 4.00

The Daily Acca: Score with the Swedes in the Allsvenskan

Bet 1: Back BTTS in AFC United v Djurgardens @ 4/5

This is a Swedish Allsvenskan fixture that sees bottom of the table, AFC Eskilstuna take on the fourth placed, Djurgardens.
The hosts are struggling following their promotion from the second tier as they have amassed a mere seven points from their opening 16 matches. Conversely, the visitors have won three of their last four to boost their hopes of a top three finish.

Despite their lack of points, Michael Jolley's side have still found the net in five of their seven home games this term. Unfortunately for them, their opponents also scored at least once in those matches and that has of course led to this selection landing in over 71% of their games in front of their own fans.

Djurgarden fired a blank in their opening away outing of the campaign but since then they have scored at least once in each of their six fixtures on the road. They did keep a couple of clean sheets during that period, but their three most recent efforts have seen them concede six times in total - with two of their opponents being in the bottom half of the division.

Bet 2: Hacken @ 3/4

The second leg of today's Acca comes from the same division as BK Hacken should prove too strong for the visit of Orebro SK.

Mikael Stahre's men are up in eighth place in the Swedish top flight and they come into the game on the back of two decent away results - a victory over Jonkopings Sodra and a draw at the second placed, Sirius.

They did lose when they last turned out at this ground, but that was a narrow 1-0 defeat against runaway leaders, Malmo FF, and prior to that it was three wins from five at home.

Orebro also come into the game having taken four points from a possible six as they played a home and away double header against IFK Goteborg. It is worth noting however that the 2-2 draw that they achieved in the away match was facilitated by a red card for the hosts, as the score was 2-0 with just nine minutes left when Goteborg were reduced to 10 men.

Bet 3: Under 2.5 Goals in Auxerre v Lens @ 8/13
The third and final selection today comes from France as Auxerre and Lens begin their Ligue Two campaigns in what should end up being a relatively low-scoring affair.

Given that this is the first game of the season for both clubs, I can't really give you many recent stats to highlight why under 2.5 goals is decent value. What I can do however, is point out the trends from last year.

Auxerre narrowly avoided relegation and it was solely down to their inability to score often enough. They were the division's lowest scorers and their matches just 1.79 goals each time - leading to 29 of their 38 fixtures seeing under 2.5 backers collect.

Lens had a much higher average at the 2.61 mark, but that was aided by a few very high-scoring games at the tail-end of the year when they were pushing for a promotion place. Over half of their games still saw the ball hit the net on two occasions or fewer and they scored one or less in five of their six pre-season friendlies.

Recommended Acca
Back BTTS in AFC United v Djurgardens @ 4/5
Back Hacken @ 3/4
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Auxerre v Lens @ 8/13

League Two 2017/18 Season Preview: Get your loot on Luton to take the title

Two teams occupy more than a quarter of the League Two outright book and a strong case can be made to say that's not enough.

Over the summer, a couple of chief executives referred to a document that did the rounds in May, showing last season's playing budget for all 24 clubs in descending order. The identity of specific clubs was protected but Portsmouth and Doncaster were immediately identified as the two standing head and shoulders above the rest, while conventional wisdom agreed that Plymouth and Luton were the next two on the list, bridging a sizeable gap between the haves and the have-nots.

Money makes Mansfield the rightful favourites

So basically, the top four spenders occupied the top four places and you don't need to be a private detective to work out that antepost favourites Mansfield are top dogs in the salary stakes this time around, while Luton have responded to their near miss by pumping most of the money received for Cameron McGeehan and Jack Marriott back into their wage bill. Both clubs clearly mean business.

Not much is secret nowadays because agents are hardly renowned for their confidentiality when trying to cut the best deal for their clients. And once it became apparent what certain players were commanding, and that Mansfield were willing to pay it, everybody else effectively took a back seat and waited for Steve Evans to finish his business. There was no point even trying to compete.

By the end of May, the Stags had completed 11 incoming transfers, a cast of stellar names bolstering a squad that would be on course for 72 points if they only maintained the standards set over the last 30 matches with Evans at the helm. Now, on any given weekend, the Glaswegian will name a bench that consists of seven players who would walk into almost any other team in the division, and maybe one or two outside of the 18 as well.

Ordinarily, this scenario might create its own set of problems but Evans is as ruthless as they come. He likes a variety of options and loves milking competition for places. Anyone spitting their dummy out runs the risk of humiliation - both in private and in public. They've all taken good money and when you dance with the devil, you wait for the music to stop.

So if you plan on trading the exchange market over the next nine months, you might want to keep Mansfield onside - they could walk it. But as an ante-post punt, Luton arguably represent the better title value at 8.00.

Jones could make Luton spectacular

So far, Nathan Jones has underwhelmed in relation to his billing as a top-notch managerial prospect but he has made enough progress to suggest the Hatters will set the benchmark. Last season, they had everything but a cutting edge. They might have lost McGeehan and Marriott but they've gained bucketloads of experience in Marek Stech, Alan McCormack and Andrew Shinnie, plus a 20-goal striker in James Collins.

With Jones, much like Pep Guardiola, you get the impression his intensity can have a draining effect on unassuming players but his ideas are constantly building towards something bigger. If those ideas are now fully ingrained and Luton start to play off the cuff, the results could be spectacular. Ninety points wouldn't be a stretch.

Stevenage a promotion selection with question marks over chasing pack

The case for the top two is only made stronger by question marks residing over the next three teams in the betting, all of whom are new to the division and must adjust to circumstances and surroundings. In the past decade, only eight out of 40 teams coming down from League One and four out of 20 teams coming up from non-league have finished in the top seven - a 4/1 shot in both cases.

Coventry might be a big name but operate on a shoestring under SISU and Mark Robins, although highly capable of steadying the rockiest of ships, has no prior experience of mounting a genuine promotion charge or any track record of top-end league success. The Sky Blues must also confront a potential home advantage problem, as most visiting teams will treat their trip to the Ricoh as a monumental event.

Swindon have changed their ethos and start from scratch under David Flitcroft. The Robins have waved goodbye to three of their biggest stalwarts in Nathan Thompson, Yaser Kasim and Jonathan Obika, removing the spine on which an instant challenge might otherwise have been built, and the jury is out on nearly all of the new arrivals. Flitcroft spent big money in his last job at Bury but only sneaked automatic through the back door on the final day of the 2014/15 season.

Lincoln are building on much stronger foundations but their glorious FA Cup run might come back to haunt them, as the media exposure that came with it revealed so much about how they operate. Danny Cowley might be an impressive marginal gains exponent but he's about to encounter a level of tactical nuance he is simply unaccustomed to.

All of which means there's ample value to be found in the middle order and Stevenage look like the standout bet in the promotion market at 7.00. The Boro made giant strides under Darren Sarll last season, looking like genuine challengers for automatic when posting ten wins in 13 matches from late January before running out of steam.

Sarll is a shrewd operator. He has created a whole greater than the sum of its parts at Broadhall Way and he was crystal clear in his thinking going into the close-season that stamina was the issue. That clear focus should serve them well. If Stevenage can impose themselves sooner and sustain it for longer, they will be there or thereabouts.

Sliding Yeovil heading out of the division

Finally, stick a point on Yeovil for relegation at 4/1. The Glovers have been on a downward spiral for the past four years, dropping down two divisions and finishing in the bottom six of the basement for the past two seasons. Their win ratio in that time is just 22 per cent and they finished last season with just three wins in 27.

Recommended Bets
1pt Luton to win the title at 8.00
1pt Stevenage to win promotion at 7.00
1pt Yeovil to be relegated at 5.00

League One 2017/18 Season Preview: Massive ante-post price for Argyle to go well

The ante-post League One column has seen some near misses (and some misses) in the last two seasons. We went pretty close with Burton Albion at 31/1 two years ago, although the pick of Bolton last term can hardly be described as 'near' - they were 14 points behind Sheffield United who finally justified their price as favourites in the third tier. The Blades hit a run of form after a shocking start and were the best team by miles.

The importance of having a striker who scores is crucial in this division. United's Billy Sharp hit 30 last year compared to the ten of Bolton's Gary Madine. That's the difference.

Last season was profitable for the backers of favourites and fancied teams of course. Chelsea and Newcastle done the business in the higher leagues, whilst the Blades and Portsmouth ensured the big names got out of their divisions.

This season we have Championship relegated teams Wigan Athletic, Rotherham and Blackburn Rovers, whilst the promoted sides include League Two title winners Portsmouth. Also up are Doncaster, Blackpool and Plymouth.

Winner Odds

The top of the market is dominated by two teams dropping down a level in Blackburn Rovers (4/1) and Wigan Athletic (7/1), whilst Portsmouth's price at 8/1 looks short enough.

Let's deal with Rovers first, who had a torrid time in the Championship last term. The worry is obviously the club's freefall current state, but manager Tony Mowbray has been backed in the transfer market in signing Bradley Dack for £750,000. The other major 'in' of note is Peter Whittingham from Cardiff. I've always enjoyed watching the silky midfielder and his cultured left foot - and he could be a cut above at this level. The goals should come from experienced striker Danny Graham.

Mowbray wasn't a massive success at Coventry but at least he knows the division. Considering Sheffield United were 6.80 to win the league last year, the 4/1 Sportsbook price of Rovers offers no value.

The same comments apply to Wigan at 7/1. Surely there are better bets around?

Former Portsmouth boss Paul Cook has taken over at the north west club despite guiding Pompey to the League Two title last term. His move took me by surprise, but as a former player, his understanding of the club ethos was important. As will be his knowledge of the lower leagues.

Signings however of Terrell Thomas, Gavin Massey and Chey Dunkley are not exactly big names, and Cook will have a job in trying to fend off Championship interest in Sam Morsy and Max Power.

If Pompey's price was around the 14 mark, I would be interested, as I like the appointment of Kenny Jackett. The 55-year-old has twice led sides to promotion out of this division and he knows how to manage a club with big expectations. A massive 14,500 season tickets have been sold at Fratton Park - and I for one am pleased they are back at this level.

I've stated before that promoted sides do well and the gap isn't massive. Oxford and Bristol Rovers were solid last year but never really kicked into the play-off places. If they were 14/1 or more I would be interested, the price at 8/1, though, is too short.

For that money we can have the same bet with Bradford - a rock solid, proven team at this level who were beaten in the play-off final last season. However, they have lost a couple of key players in Billy Clarke and James Meredith. It was a surprise they were allowed to leave. Manager Stuart McCall confirmed his commitment in staying at the club following a bit of speculation - but surely this summer should have been the time to strengthen rather than wave goodbye to big names.

Their transfer dealings have been less than spectacular and they drew too many games last term (19).

Of the promoted sides, Plymouth Argyle are worth a punt at a big price 28/1. I've seen them a couple of times at Leyton Orient (ah those were the days!), and they were a big, physical unit. The best possible news was the new deal for Graham Carey - I like his creativity.

The manager Derek Adams brings an air of stability and good team spirit, and I would never be put off by backing a promoted side - those qualities went a long way to Burton's success two seasons ago. Motherwell winger Lionel Ainsworth is an interesting addition, and it seems they have been written off before a ball has been kicked. They had 87 points alongside Pompey in League Two - yet we can back them at over three times the price.

Top Six Finish

Phil Brown's Southend United are definitely worth a poke at 20/1 as an outside bet for the title, but they represent a fair 3/1 price to finish in the top six.

They were not too far away last term and at several points were on the cusp of the play-offs. However, like so many teams at this level, when that talk airs itself, players tend to get nosebleeds and panic for some reason. Walsall and Rochdale have been classic examples in the past.

The Shrimpers played some decent stuff in patches last season, and I like the way Phil Brown kept at it despite a poor start last August. Their form in April when they needed to make a proper charge also tailed off, but generally they were a good side at home and they had a bit of presence up front with Nile Ranger. He hit eight goals in 27 appearances - and they always looked a better team when he started.

Ranger was jailed for eight months back in May but will get the chance to relaunch his career looking at the latest quotes from manager Brown.

Summer transfer activity has seen moves to bring in Michael Turner and Michael Kightly, and those additions look excellent business. We should see better from former West Ham left-back Stephen Hendrie too. I like them as a team.

I am watching Peterborough closely over the next couple of weeks, as they are priced up at 5/2 for a top six finish.

This is a big season at the ABAX and they need a fast start - which hasn't always been the case. However, I like watching Posh and always enjoy them for their entertaining football.

The question is will they keep hold of Marcus Maddison? Chairman Darragh MacAnthony has said he won't leave for less than £1million, and on his day I agree with MacAthony that he is the best player in the division.

My old favourites Rochdale didn't quite make the short list, but Keith Hill is a brilliant manager with the resources at his disposal. He's also one of the most entertaining with his quotes. He's a bit of a magician the way he conjures a top-half finish.

Relegation Market

The surprising name at such short odds are Gillingham at 13/8. They were awful last term and only just survived by the skin of their teeth. Losing Bradley Dack was a blow - but the £750,000 should offset that. He wasn't quite the same player in the last campaign for whatever reason, but it was at the back where the Kent club had big problems.

New director of football Peter Taylor will work with head coach Aidy Pennock, and it will be interesting to see if they will spend any of the Dack cash.

Bury are usually there or thereabouts in this market - although I did recommend laying them at around 6/4 for last term's preview. They survived, but it isn't the most exciting long term bet to tie up money for 10 months by laying 6/4 shots!

The Shakers should be safe despite being 4/1 for this, as I'm a fan of their manager Lee Clark. I also like their strike force of Nicky Ajose and Jermaine Beckford - and I'll be looking at Over 2.5 Goals in their early matches. They need to replace James Vaughan's 24 goals last term, but I think they can do it. Vaughan was surprisingly signed by Sunderland.

My tentative selection here is Walsall at 5/2. I wasn't massively convinced by manager Jon Whitney last term, and a final position of finishing 14th was way down from reaching the play-off finals the season before. They finished with just one victory from their last ten games and I haven't exactly been blown away with their transfers so far.

League One Ante-Post Recommended Bets
Back Plymouth Argyle @ 28/1 to win the title (Sportsbook price)
Back Southend United Top Six @ 3/1 (Sportsbook price)
Back Walsall for Relegation @ 5/2 (Sportsbook price)

ATP Tour Week 24: Dimitrov with little to fear in Washington

High quality field in Washington this week

With last week's event in Atlanta seeing the commencement of the US summer hard court season, the main focus this week is the Washington 500 event, which at around $2m offers considerably the most prize money of this week's three events.

The format in the American capital is a strange 48 man field, with 16 first round matches and 16 players receiving first round byes, and the prize money has attracted a decent quality field, with Dominic Thiem top seed among four top ten players.

Conditions expected to be quick, and similar to Atlanta last week

Conditions at Rock Creek Park are expected to be very quick indeed, with 83.9% of service games being held in the last three years at the venue - over 4% above the ATP hard court mean, and decent servers certainly benefit with a high 0.69 aces per game count.

On this basis, it's pretty fair to assume that conditions will be very similar to those experienced at Atlanta this week, where John Isner took the title at his second home - his second consecutive title in as many weeks. While this form is an obvious positive for the big American, it should be tempered by the fact that the quality of his opponents in the last fortnight has been extremely weak, and he may be getting fatigued.

Despite conditions being similar to those in Georgia, the recent event winners don't fit quite as neatly into the American, big-server profile, although big-servers have claimed five titles in the last ten years - Andy Roddick, Milos Raonic and Juan Martin del Potro (on three occasions). Isner has been runner-up three times, while Ivo Karlovic and Vasek Pospisil also are big-servers who have lost in the final in recent years.

Fitness doubts around many of the market leaders

Even with the slight bias towards big-servers, we can certainly swerve Raonic and Del Potro, despite their venue success - both have questionable fitness while Nick Kyrgios and Kei Nishikori also fit into this category. Top seed Thiem has performed much worse post-Wimbledon in his young career so far, almost definitely due to his arduous scheduling resulting in fatigue in the latter stages of the season.

This leaves us with the likes of Kevin Anderson, Alexander Zverev, Jack Sock, Steve Johnson, Grigor Dimitrov, Gilles Muller and the aforementioned Isner as the big-servers with a realistic chance of success, and of these, it is Dimitrov (2017 combined hold/break on hard court of 113.7%) and Zverev (106.6%) with the best hard court data this year.

Dimitrov with high expectations based on strong data

However, in the case of the younger Zverev brother, available at 15/2, his data is flattered by key point over performance, and on this basis, Dimitrov at 14/1 looks a better choice at bigger odds, with Sock (105.0%) another worth looking at in further detail given he has under-performed by 5.7% on break points on return on hard courts this year, and therefore should have plenty of upside - the American is available at 14.50 on the Exchange.

Assessing the draw, Dimitrov's segment features Steve Johnson as the seed, and contains dangerous young prospects Daniil Medvedev, Reilly Opelka, Hyeon Chung and Kyle Edmund, but he'd be a heavy favourite against all of these. He'd then be likely to face either Alexander Zverev or Nick Kyrgios - who is almost certainly not fully fit - and is in the bottom half of the draw with fellow fitness doubts Del Potro and Nishikori.

Given this, the draw could easily open up for the Bulgarian and he can be backed at 14/1 to take the title - he shouldn't fear anyone in this field.

Weak event anticipated in Los Cabos

The other hard court event this week takes place in Los Cabos, Mexico, a purpose-built tourist hot-spot, and the quality of the field is utterly woeful, with many players ranked over the 100 mark being able to take spots in the main draw.

Tomas Berdych, at 11/5, is the event favourite, with Sam Querrey and defending champion Ivo Karlovic slightly further back in the betting. Fernando Verdasco, Adrian Mannarino and Albert Ramos are further market contenders.

With the event new on tour last year, we have a smaller sample than ideal to work with regarding assessing court speed, but 80.1% of service games were held in 2016, slightly higher than the ATP hard court mean, and with the aces per game count marginally higher than average too, I'm happy to grade venue conditions slightly faster than average, and unlikely to particularly benefit any specific player genre.

I'm rather unenthused by the market prices on players here, with no outstanding value, although the 33/1 on Taylor Fritz could provide some interest this week if the young American gets back to his best.

Alpine specialist Haase with potential in Kitzbuhel

Back in Europe, the Alpine town of Kitzbuhel plays out the final clay court event of the season, and at almost 800m above sea level, altitude comes into play. Despite this, there is little historical evidence of this fact when looking at data on serving - just 73.4% of service games have been held at the venue in the last three years - and any effects certainly are not as profound as in tournaments such as Bogota or Quito in South America.

Field quality is stronger this year than is often the case, with few players historically being keen on prioritising a European clay event with the main American hard court swing starting next week.

Robin Haase has taken advantage of this, with a magnificent 13-3 venue record here, winning in consecutive years in 2011 and 2012, and performed well in similar conditions in Gstaad last week, making the semi-finals. With good clay data this year (107.4% combined hold/break percentage) he looks to be a very solid outside pick at 12/1 with the Sportsbook. The out of form duo of Santiago Giraldo and Carlos Berlocq stand in the way of the Dutchman and a potential quarter-final with defending champion Paolo Lorenzi.

Fitness doubts surround tournament favourite Cuevas

This quarter is the second in the draw, in the same half as the top seed and 5/1 tournament favourite Pablo Cuevas, and I'm viewing this as a huge positive also - since missing the entire grass season with injury, the Uruguayan has yet to win a match on his favoured clay, losing to Henri Laaksonen in Bastad, and Andrey Kuznetsov last week in Bastad. Cuevas, this year, has also not hit the heights of his 2015 and 2016 clay campaigns, and doesn't look to represent much value at this price.

In the bottom half of the draw, 2015 champion Philipp Kohlschreiber - another with a solid venue record - is unlikely to be fit after he retired with a muscle injury in his semi-final defeat to Florian Mayer in Hamburg on Saturday, and Jiri Vesely could take advantage in a weak quarter - although odds of 13.50 about the Czech don't particularly represent huge value, in my opinion.

Finally, in the bottom quarter, second seed Fabio Fognini, at 13/2, has a tricky-looking bracket, with Andrey Kuznetsov, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Jan-Lennard Struff and another altitude specialist Thomaz Bellucci all obvious threats. The Italian has shown some ability in past years regarding backing up a tournament win with another, but this price doesn't strike me as being particularly noteworthy.

Recommended Bets

Back Grigor Dimitrov at 14/1 to win ATP Washington
Back Robin Haase each-way at 12/1 to win ATP Kitzbuhel

The Punter's De-Brief: Market carnage as long-odds on shot Levy loses

After a humdinger of a final round in Hamburg, my pre-event pick and defending champ, Alexander Levy, stood on the 18th tee at the Porsche European Open with a one stroke lead yesterday afternoon but he couldn't match playing partner Jordan Smith's birdie four and the tournament went in to extra time.

Smith, who was generally a 48.00 chance, made a fantastic up-and down from the rough behind the green to get into the playoff but he looked doomed at the first extra hole, when after a heavy-handed chip, he missed a 20 foot birdie putt. Levy was left with three feet for birdie to make a successful defence of the title but, as you'll see in the below clip, it wasn't to be.

Over £17k was matched on Levy at the minimum odds of 1.01 but he was visibly shaken by his missed opportunity. It felt inevitable that Smith would go on to win and he did at the very next hole, making a brilliant birdie despite finding the rough off the tee.

Smith's rise has been fast and impressive. He only turned pro three years ago and yesterday's victory is the fourth of his career after two wins on the EuroPro Tour in 2015 and victory on the Challenge Tour last year. He's on an upward curve and I don't think he's reached the apex just yet.

Over at the RBC Canadian Open, defending champions, Jhonattan Vegas, who was generally a 180.00 chance before the off, although he did touch a high of 220.00, retained the title in extra time after he and Dave Tindall's fancy, Charley Hoffman, both finished the tournament on 21-under-par. Vegas came from five back to win last year and from three adrift this time around.

Hoffman, who had led with a round to go, began the final round with a pair of birdies and he was matched at a low of 1.80 when he had five foot for birdie at the third to increase his lead but he missed that and he needed to birdie two of the last three holes to take the tournament in to extra time.

Vegas is the third player to defend his title on the PGA Tour this season following successful defences by Justin Thomas at the CIMB Classic and by Daniel Berger at the FedEx St Jude Classic.

My Bets

It's always nice to see a pre-tournament pick win so Levy losing left a bit of a nasty taste but I never complain when you get plenty of chances to profit in-running. I didn't lay any of the 1.01 unfortunately but I got him layed at 2.10 early on and I layed him again for plenty at 1.20 so although he got beat; it was a great result really. And having my each-way pick, Zander Lombard, place at 150/1 was the icing on the cake.

I layed the winner at the Senior Open, Bernhard Langer, for a few quid at very long odds-on in-running and I drew a blank at the RBC Canadian Open but I layed Hoffman at 1.90 as he played the third hole so some of my losses at that event were recouped. I backed him back a few holes later at 2.90 to clear the liability and I finished up trading him and the winner back and fore throughout the final round. I still lost on the tournament but only modestly and it's been a decent enough week.

The Perils of a New Course

For the second time this season we've had a new course hit the European Tour rota with a monstrous yardage and for a second time, it hasn't played anywhere close to its advertised length.

Back in March, short-hitter, SSP Chawrasia, who currently ranks 216th for Driving Distance on the European Tour, successfully defended his Indian Open title on a course that was supposed to be 7,650 yards long and then this week, Siddikur Rahman, who's every bit as short off the tee as SSP, finished third at a track with an official yardage of 7,831 yards!

Before the off, the North Course at the Glen Eagle Resort was described as "the longest used on the European Tour" and it was reported to be "one of the 10 longest worldwide." So how on earth did someone unable to drive much further than 260 yards manage to compete this week?

Back in March, the tournament officials reduced the yardage significantly because the Gary Player designed DLF Golf and Country Club was deemed to be just too difficult to be played at its full distance and the yardage was dramatically reduced this week because of the wet conditions.

It's very difficult to know how a brand new venue is going to play and the task is made so much harder when the European Tour website offers up no information but what these two results tell us is that we can't just assume the course is going to be set up as long as the yardage suggests it will.

I'll be back tomorrow with my previews for both this week's events - the Barracuda Championship and the WGC Bridgestone Invitational, where Rory McIlroy will be playing with a new caddie!.

Top

The Championship 2017/18 Season Preview: Big-spending Boro to bounce back

The Daily Acca: Score with the Swedes in the Allsvenskan

League Two 2017/18 Season Preview: Get your loot on Luton to take the title

League One 2017/18 Season Preview: Massive ante-post price for Argyle to go well

ATP Tour Week 24: Dimitrov with little to fear in Washington

The Punter's De-Brief: Market carnage as long-odds on shot Levy loses

Arsenal v Aston Villa: Fragile Gunners struggling to shine

Gremio to take advantage of a distracted Flamengo

Euro 2020 Qualifiers Sunday Tips: French resistance is weakening

ATP Tour Finals Day Eight: Not much to split Tsitsipas and Thiem

Saturday Premier League Tipsheet: Back goals at West Brom in pre-Christmas cracker

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Blog Archive

The Championship 2017/18 Season Preview: Big-spending Boro to bounce back

The Daily Acca: Score with the Swedes in the Allsvenskan

League Two 2017/18 Season Preview: Get your loot on Luton to take the title

League One 2017/18 Season Preview: Massive ante-post price for Argyle to go well

ATP Tour Week 24: Dimitrov with little to fear in Washington

The Punter's De-Brief: Market carnage as long-odds on shot Levy loses