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Find Me a 100 Winner: A trio of outsider picks for Sea Island

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Last year's RSM Classic was won by a 599-1 shot and Mackenzie Hughes wasn't the first outsider to thrive at Sea Island either. Paul Krishnamurty runs the rule over this year's field in search of picks at 99-1 or better...</div>
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In a busy golfing week, involving tournaments spanning four continents, the highlight from a pedigree perspective is obviously the DP World Tour Championship - previewed here by Steve Rawlings. Fittingly for the Race to Dubai finale, this is one of the most reliable form events on the calendar - always producing a very high-class leaderboard and, to date, obvious champions.</div>
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Utterly terrible trends for outsiders then, but I must at least mention a few that caught the eye for Jumeirah. Considering his good form - second at the Nedbank, sixth at Valderrama - 200.00 about Scott Jamieson looks too big. Plus both my each-way pick George Coetzee and Mike Norman's selection Ryan Fox are trading at 100.00 and 290.00 respectively on the exchange. Despite those enhanced odds, though, I'd rather back them each-way as winning or trading short will be very difficult in this company.</div>
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In complete contrast, historic leaderboards at the RSM Classic are packed with outsiders, including some very unlikely winners - not least Mackenzie Hughes at 600.00 last year. Whilst this column has never had a winner at Sea Island, we did go agonisingly close in 2013, when 500.00 pick Briny Baird lost by a shot after trading below 1.20. As those instances imply, don't be afraid to take huge odds about a fancy here.</div>
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Back Sean O'Hair 2u @ 120.00</div>
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Place order to lay 12u @ 12.00</div>
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Place order to lay 20u @ 3.00</div>
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Sean O'Hair is always liable to be selected here when conditions suit. Though inconsistent, he's high-class at his best and tends to contend strongly at least once or twice per season. It's six years since the last of his four PGA Tour wins (still a fair return for a 35 year-old), but he has finished runner-up in an event in each of the last three seasons.</div>
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He wasn't in terrible form when last seen during the FedEx Cup and makes his seasonal debut at a track where his record is solid, registering four top-20 finishes in five attempts.</div>
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Back Michael Thompson 1u e/w @ 200/1 (1/5 odds, 1-7 places)</div>
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We're taking a chance on well-being here but, from a course form perspective, Thompson is a no-brainer at these odds. Among five visits he's finished third, tenth and 13th. This one-time US Open runner-up would also probably have been much shorter six months ago, after registering a respectable six top-20 finishes early last season.</div>
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The problem is that Thompson went on to miss the summer with injury, only returning a fortnight ago at the Shriners. While 72nd place there hardly excites, hitting 82% of greens in regulation is encouraging.</div>
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Back Tom Hoge 2u @ 220.00</div>
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Place order to lay 10u @ 25.00</div>
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Place order to lay 10u @ 10.00</div>
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Great putting and plenty of birdies are essential to contend at Sea Island and that brings Tom Hoge into the equation. He ranks ninth for putting and seventh for birdie average amongst these over the past year and only seems to thrive in low scoring conditions.</div>
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Easily his best two recent results were in birdie-fests - fourth at the Barracuda and seventh a fortnight ago at the Shriners. Another promising clue is that seven of his ten rounds at Sea Island to date were sub-69.</div>
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There was no shortage of alternatives on the shortlist. Dave Tindall has dug out a very interesting 80/1 each-way bet on J.T. Poston and at 110.00 on the exchange, he falls within our price range. At the same odds, Dave's other recent 100/1 winner Ryan Armour also came in for consideration.</div>
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First reserve is David Lingmerth at 150.00 - a cracking putter who was only excluded because of uncertainty after he withdrew from the OHL. And finally I absolutely wouldn't deter anyone from sticking with last week's profitable pick Brian Gay at 200.00. He's finished fourth here previously and ranks second amongst these for putting over the last three months.</div>
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Find Me a 100 Winner: A trio of outsider picks for Sea Island

Last year's RSM Classic was won by a 599-1 shot and Mackenzie Hughes wasn't the first outsider to thrive at Sea Island either. Paul...

17:26

DP World Tour Championship: Rahm ready to win again at venue likely to suit

The European Tour season ends in Dubai this week with three men gunning to be top dog. Read our man's comprehensive preview of the season finale at the Jumeirah Golf Estates here... 
 
Tournament History 
The DP World Tour Championship was first staged in 2009, when the European Tour replicated the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup with its own version called the Race to Dubai. 
 
The DP World Tour Championship is the eighth and final event of the Rolex Series and it determines who wins the R2D. It's a limited field event for the top-60 in the standings. 
 
Lee Westwood won the inaugural staging and in doing so he won the R2D, having trailed Rory McIlroy in the season long race before the off, but for the next five years the R2D was all sewn up before this tournament began so changes had to be made. 
 
Seven players were in with a chance before the off two years ago, four could still win it last year but only three are in the running this time around -Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose and Sergio Garcia. 
 
Four of the eight winners of this tournament to date, also won the Race to Dubai. 
 
 
Venue 
The Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, UAE. 
 
 
Course Details 
Par 72, 7,831 yards 
Stroke index in 2016 - 70.41 
 
The Greg Norman designed Earth Course has been the event's venue since its inception. It's a long typical desert track with generous fairways. 
 
The Tifeagle Bermuda grass greens are large and undulating, with a lot of run-off areas, and they usually run at around 12.5 on the stimpmeter. Water is in-play on the 6th, 14th and last three holes. 
 
It's a stunning finish that has the potential to produce much drama. The par three 17th has an island green and the par five 18th, with water in play twice if you go for the green and three times if you lay-up, is an intriguing hole, where scores can vary greatly - although players are starting to work out how to play the hole and last year it averaged 4.85 and below par for the third year in-a-row. 
 
 
Weather Forecast 
 
 
TV Coverage 
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 08:00 on Thursday. 
 
 
First Eight DP World Tour Championship Winners 
2009 - Lee Westwood -23 
2010 - Robert Karlsson -14 (playoff)  
2011 - Alvaro Quiros -19 
2012 - Rory McIlroy -23 
2013 - Henrik Stenson -25 
2014 - Henrik Stenson -16 
2015 - Rory McIlroy -21 
2016 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -17 
 
 
What Will it Take to Win the DP World Tour Championship? 
The Earth Course is long and the fairways are generous so hitting it a long way is a distinct advantage and it's no surprise to see that last year's winner, Matthew Fitzpatrick, is the only winner to rank outside the top-eight for Driving Distance but he wasn't that short - ranking 16th for DD. 
 
Fitzpatrick ranked second for Driving Accuracy but that's a largely irrelevant stat. Rory McIlroy only ranked tied for 36th for Driving Accuracy two years ago and when Alvaro Quiros won here in 2011, he ranked 55th for D.A and remember, there were only 60 in the line-up! 
 
McIlroy only ranked tied 25th for Greens In Regulation when he first won the tournament in 2012 and Fitzpatrick only ranked 21st but those two look like the outliers and five of the eight winners have ranked inside the top-four for GIR. 
 
The 2014 renewal produced some strange putting stats (see below) but that looks like a bit of a one-off given Stenson's Putting Average ranking was 16th and every other winner's ranking has been eighth or better. The first three home last year had a PA ranking for the week of second, fourth and fifth and they ranked tied third, first and tied third for Putts Per Round. 
 
1st, Henrik Stenson - Putting Average ranking T16th and Putts per Round ranking 24th 
T2nd, Rory McIlroy - Putting Average ranking T16th and Putts per Round ranking 18th 
T2nd, Justin Rose - Putting Average ranking 14th and Putts per Round ranking 18th 
T2nd, Victor Dubuisson - Putting Average ranking 21st and Putts per Round ranking 30th 
 
 
Is There an Angle In? 
Anyone who plays desert golf well has to be respected and the two events to really concentrate on are the Dubai Desert Classic and the Qatar Masters. 
 
Three of the six players to have won this event in its very short history - Stenson (twice), McIlroy (twice) and Alvaro Quiros - have all won the Dubai Desert Classic and the 2012 DDC winner, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, traded at just 1.48 in this event three years ago before throwing the tournament away at the 16th hole. Cabrera-Bello and the 2015 runner-up here, Andy Sullivan, both finished tied for second at the DDC in the February of 2015. 
 
In addition to winning this title, Robert Karlsson, Stenson and Quiros have also won in Qatar, and Lee Westwood should arguably have won at all three venues. The inaugural winner of this tournament has been in contention numerous times in Qatar and he's twice finished runner-up at the DDC. The same can be said of the infuriating-to-follow, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, who was also runner-up in Qatar last year. 
 
Fitzpatrick was the first winner here that didn't have a really strong desert golf pedigree. 
 
 
Is There an Identikit Winner? 
All eight winners were in form and Stenson, three years ago, is the only winner not to have won an event somewhere earlier in the season. 
 
All the winners have been top-class players and up until last year, when Fitzpatrick won having been matched at a triple-figure price before the off, the 2011 winner, Quiros, who was matched at odds of 44.00, had been, by some distance, the biggest priced winner of the event. 
 
Rory and Stenson, who have both won the event twice in the last five years, were trading at single-figure prices each year so the tournament has a history of going to the fancied players. 
 
 
In-Play Tactics 
Fitzpatrick sat tied for seventh after an opening three-under-par 69 last year and that's the furthest from the front any winner has been after round one but he was still only three off the lead. This is most certainly a front-runners' track and the previous seven winners had all opened up with a round of 68 or better and all seven were inside the top-six places after day one. 
 
Fitzpatrick still trailed by three at halfway and he, Rory (in 2015), and Robert Karlsson, who beat Ian Poulter in a play-off in 2010, are the only winners not to be in front after rounds two and three. The other five winners were all never headed after 36 holes. Bizarrely, Karlsson is the only first round leader to go on to win though. He'd dropped back after a second round 75 before rallying with back-to-back 67s over the weekend to catch Poults. 
 
As they've done in each of the last two weeks on the European Tour, the field will go out in reverse order after round one this week and that might go some way to explaining why the leaders are so hard to catch. 
 
When interviewed by Sky after round two last year, Andy Sullivan talked about how much warmer it was in the afternoons here and how he couldn't reach the second green in two in the morning but that the later starters would get there easily. Maybe the leaders getting more favourable conditions is one of the reasons why it's hard to play catch-up? 
 
If you're betting in-running, beware the tricky finish where we've already witnessed drama aplenty. The 16th is a fairly difficult par four that really caught out Cabrera-Bello in 2014 and the par three 17th is also tough. Having been two clear and having already been matched at a low of just 1.04, Rory hit a stinker of a tee-shot there two years ago to find the water. It looked like it was game on for a few minutes and that he and the eventual runner-up, the aforementioned Sullivan, would go up the 18th tied for the lead. Rory drained his bogey putt from around 30 feet and from that moment on there was only ever going to be one winner but last year was even more dramatic... 
 
Tyrrell Hatton was matched at odds-on on five separate occasions during round four and he hit a low of 1.13 when he made a miraculous par save at the 17th hole but with the event at his mercy, he drove in to the water on the 18th and Fitzpatrick made birdie there to pip him by one. 
 
 
Market Leaders 
It's hard to dismiss the chances of Justin Rose given he's twice finished runner-up here and that he's looking to win his third event in-a-row. As already mentioned above, this is a tournament that tends to go to the fancied runners and I wouldn't attempt to talk anyone out of backing him at an industry-wide best of 7/1 with the Sportsbook. 
 
Despite leading the event at the halfway stage 12 months ago, Sergio Garcia's form around here isn't great and his figures read an uninspiring 7-21-11-9-12-19. We've not seen the US Masters winner since he won at Valderrama last month and I'm more than happy to leave him out of my calculations. At a slightly bigger price, I much prefer the chances of fellow Spaniard, Jon Rahm. 
 
The big hitting world number five has been a bit disappointing of late, missing the cut at Valderrama and failing to get competitive at the WGC HSBC Champions in China last time out and he could be construed as a risky play here given that form and the fact that he's playing here for the first time but at around 15.00, he looks very reasonably priced. 
 
Rahm hasn't got any desert golf experience but he was fifth at the Phoenix Open in just his second start on the PGA Tour and I can see him taking to the Earth Course like a duck to water. 
 
Last week's winner, Branden Grace, has twice won the Qatar Masters and he may well have won it three times had he entered the event in January so he ticks the course correlation box and indeed, he has played well here before, finishing sixth on debut on 2012 and third two years ago. Tyrrell Hatton and Rose have both already won back-to-back this autumn and it's certainly not inconceivable that Grace could emulate them given he's previously won back-to-back tournaments twice before. 
 
 
Selection 
I could very easily have backed both Rose and Grace. I can see the pair going well and I also liked Victor Dubuisson, who has great course and current form but I was on board at 65.00 when he led with a round to go last year at and I just can't back him at less than half that price this time around. 
 
I know the field isn't as strong as it was 12 months ago and that he played well last week but he was third in the Nedbank 12 months ago too so all things considered he's a fraction short so I'm going to begin the week with just a small bet on Rahm. 
 
This looks like a perfect test for the highest ranked player in the field and I thought he was two or three points too big. 
 
Selection: 
Jon Rahm @ 15.50 
 
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DP World Tour Championship: Rahm ready to win again at venue likely to suit

The European Tour season ends in Dubai this week with three men gunning to be top dog. Read our man's comprehensive preview of the seaso...

17:25

Republic of Ireland v Denmark: Another tight encounter likely in Dublin

Martin O'Neil's side head home with their World Cup qualification hopes in the balance, Daniel McDonnell gives his verdict on whether they can book their ticket to Russia... 
 
Republic Of Ireland v Denmark 
Tuesday, 19:45 
Live on Sky Sports Main Event 
 
Martin O'Neill's side enter the return leg of their World Cup qualifier with Denmark knowing that any kind of home win puts them into next summer's finals. They didn't get the away goal they wanted from Saturday's drab first leg in Copenhagen, but they did keep a clean sheet and succeeded in frustrating their hosts. 
 
Danish midfielder Thomas Delaney compared the task of breaking down Ireland to the challenge of opening a tin of baked beans with bare hands. Ireland's approach to the game is best summed up by the fact that the player that made the most passes was goalkeeper Darren Randolph with 31. Safety first was the priority. Instead of the risky through ball, Ireland played the percentages and went long. It wasn't pretty but the players felt it was effective. 
 
They need to produce a performance on home soil that consigns any memories of Denmark to the dustbin. If Denmark succeed in scoring in Dublin, Ireland will need two to advance. Denmark's manager Age Hareide pointed out on Saturday evening that O'Neill's men tend not to do that so often. But they did hit that target in their last play-off decider, the crunch Euro 2016 encounter with Bosnia two years ago. 
 
On that occasion, the Irish had the security of an away goal in the bank - after a 1-1 draw in the away leg - which gave them the knowledge of knowing that a scoreless draw in Dublin would be enough. They did more than that by registering a 2-0 win in an assertive performance where they were aggressive in the opposition half from the outset and got their reward. 
 
The debate ahead of the second game is if O'Neill will encourage his players to really go for it. He welcomes David Meyler back from suspension and his inclusion in midfield would free Jeff Hendrick to move to the right of a 4-5-1. The alternative would be to go with two strikers, which O'Neill has tended to do in home matches. 
 
But he is light on options and selecting both Shane Long and Daryl Murphy would leave him short of an attacker on the bench in case of emergency. The uncapped Scott Hogan is his only other option. Selecting Long ahead of Murphy would freshen things up and leave the bigger man in reserve. Denmark have options in the forward department too, and they lacked subtlety in round one with Christian Eriksen well shackled by a busy Irish midfield. 
 
The Aviva Stadium is not a particularly intimidating venue but there have been exceptions to the rule and a high intensity Irish approach will be required to really get the crowd going and avoid the situation where Hareide's side monopolise possession. 
 
Denmark's status as narrow favourites is most likely drawn from the fact they had the better chances and have a good record away from home. But a score draw will do for them and it's a leap to think that getting involved on a 90 minute win for the away side is the play. 
 
The 3.10 about Ireland is not especially tempting either; they are very much capable of grinding out the result but they are unlikely to go ahead early if they do so. Given the likely in-play movements, laying the visitors at 2.80 appeals as the bet. 
 
 
Recommended Bets 
Half Time - Draw 1.83 
 
The 1.83 about the sides being level at the break stands out. Both sides have spoken about the importance of getting the first goal, but they don't need it inside 15 minutes as much as O'Neill indicated on Monday that his side would try and be more expansive. Certainly, with the crowd on the backs, expect a passionate showing in the early minutes but they are unlikely to throw caution to the wind. 
 
Meanwhile, the Danes are hopeful that they will get more space if Ireland commit bodies. They should have no reason to fear O'Neill's side, but their manager is experienced and they might well take the view that curbing Ireland's enthusiasm and quietening the crowd would be half the battle. That points to the game being all square at the halfway point 
 
To Score: Ciaran Clark 10.50 
 
With the main markets not exactly screaming obvious value with punters wise to the fact this should be low scoring with the potential to go all the way, this is a left field call. 
 
Denmark were very conscious of Shane Duffy's threat from set pieces on Saturday and he was well shackled every time he ventured forward. But Ciaran Clark did wriggle into space on a couple of occasions with Duffy the priority. He's 10.50 to get on the scoresheet and with Ireland sending players forward for every corner and throw-in then a small play should at least give people a run for their money. 
 
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Republic of Ireland v Denmark: Another tight encounter likely in Dublin

Martin O'Neil's side head home with their World Cup qualification hopes in the balance, Daniel McDonnell gives his verdict on whethe...

14:15

Premier League Top 4 Finish Betting: The big six clubs assessed

The final international break of the year is drawing to a close and with it comes arguably the most important period of the Premier League season. The four months between mid-November and the next international break in March sets the standard for the coming matches, which includes the hectic festive period. 
 
After 11 games, the Premier League table is starting to take shape and some feel the current top-4 will finish as it is come May. 
 
Impossible to back City but United look more attractive 
Manchester City lead the way and sit a whopping 12 points above Liverpool in fifth and are favourites to lift the title next year at 1.22, let alone secure a Champions League spot. 
 
City are unbackable at 1.01 on the Exchange to secure a Top 4 Finish, so there is better value elsewhere, even if it is by crossing the Manchester divide, with United looking strong contenders to secure a Champions League berth. 
 
Manchester United were one of the favourites for the title last year, only to labour to a sixth-placed finish as Jose Mourinho focused his attention on the Europa League rather than strive to secure a place in Europe's elite club competition via the league. Following a summer of heavy investment, spending big to secure the likes of Romelu Lukaku and Nemanja Matic, United are primed to make an assault on the Champions League places. 
 
They've conceded fewer goals (5) than any other Premier League team this season and have picked up 23 points of 33 points available. They are available to back at 1.30, which while not the most profitable of odds, is certainly more appealing than City. The only downside is the lingering doubts of Mourinho's future at Old Trafford. The Portuguese boss has been heavily linked with a United exit, with PSG supposedly keeping tabs on the 54-year-old and that could impact the club's form in the pursuit of a Champions League finish. 
 
Solid Spurs can concentrate on Premier League in coming weeks 
Tottenham are level on points with United in the Premier League but can be backed at slightly better odds, with a top-4 finish available at 1.34. Spurs look to be finding their feet at Wembley after an indifferent start to the season at the national stadium. Their away form has also been strong, with a 1-0 defeat at Old Trafford the only blip on the record. 
 
Following a 3-1 win over Real Madrid, Mauricio Pochettino's side have secured a spot in the next round of the Champions League and they can instead focus their attention of maintaining their good league form. 
 
The north London side have also performed well in a testing run of fixtures that culminates with a trip to Arsenal on Saturday. After that, they have a relatively easy set of matches before their visit to Manchester City in mid-December. If you wish to back Spurs for a top-4 finish, then the advice is to do it now as those odds will shorten if they win at Arsenal on Saturday before that 'easier' looking stretch of fixtures. 
 
Kind upcoming fixtures for Blues offset by big European games 
On the back of a 1-0 win over United before the international break, Chelsea make up the current top-4. They fell to defeat before and after the previous domestic hiatus, but have returned to winning ways in the Premier League, winning their last three. 
 
What's more is between now and January, they face just one of last season's top-6, that coming in a trip to Liverpool later this month. Such a favourable run of games means odds of 1.54 could be tempting for punters. 
 
That being said, they have struggled in the Champions League this season and the added pressure in their quest to navigate their group may see their league form suffer. Antonio Conte's side have, however, picked up seven points of a possible 12 in their four league games following a Champions League, including victory in their last two, suggesting they are adjusting accordingly to the additional matches that came with their return to European action. 
 
Liverpool look a better bet than the Gunners 
Chelsea sit just three points above Liverpool and Arsenal, with the Blues' meeting with the former expected to provide another twist in the race for a top-4 finish. 
 
The Reds were boosted by the return of Sadio Mane, with the Senegalese forward influential in the 4-1 win at West Ham, though news of another hamstring injury picked up on international duty won't be music to Jurgen Klopp's ears. 
 
The Reds' defence still requires improvement to ensure a second successive top-4 finish, however. Only Watford (21) have conceded more goals than Liverpool (17) of all teams in the top half of the table this season, but when their attack is on song, they're capable of blowing away any team. At 2.10 to back, they may attract some interest. 
 
Rounding off the top-6 is Arsenal, who are level on points with Liverpool. The Gunners, though, face Spurs, Manchester United and Klopp's men before the year is out. Even if they welcome the trio to the Emirates, where they have won all five league matches this season, all three teams will pose a credible threat to their chances of a return to the Champions League. 
 
With lingering doubts of Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil's futures at the club and the team struggling, it's for this reason they are the outside favourites of the current top-6 to secure a Champions League finish, being available to back at 3.20. 
 
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Premier League Top 4 Finish Betting: The big six clubs assessed

The final international break of the year is drawing to a close and with it comes arguably the most important period of the Premier League s...

14:13

World Cup 2018: Five long odds bets for Russia

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With just two places at next summer's World Cup still up for grabs, the tournament in Russia is taking shape, with the draw on December 1. The usual suspects are favourites in the market, but Martin Laurence has picked out a number of dark horses to keep an eye on at chunky prices...</div>
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They may have needed a play-off with Greece to reach the tournament proper but the early signs under new manager Zlatko Dalic are encouraging for the ever-entertaining Croatia. The 51-year-old had been working in the UAE before replacing Ante Cacic earlier this year but his lack of top level experience hasn't shown thus far, leading the side to crucial wins over Ukraine and Greece to book a spot in Russia.</div>
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With enviable firepower at his disposal, Dalic has left out Mario Mandzukic in recent times, with the likes of Nikola Kalinic and Andrej Kramaric getting the nod. They utilise the flanks very well but their main strength is unquestionably in central midfield, with the Modric-Rakitic partnership among the strongest in the international game.</div>
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Croatia have a squad capable of going deep into the latter stages and <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="37/1">38.00 looks a very good back-to-lay.</div>
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Another side that will look to upset the odds by going on the offensive next summer, Mexico reached the tournament with considerable ease for a record breaking seventh successive time. Their only defeat in the final phase of CONCACAF qualifying came in their last game against Honduras having already confirmed top spot - resting several players - and their experience and firepower is considerable.</div>
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Juan Carlos Osorio's squad is littered with international stalwarts but it's the emergence of a potential superstar that could see the Central Americans go far. Hirving Lozano stole the show in a recent friendly with the well-fancied golden generation of Belgium, which ended 3-3, scoring twice as he continues to build a big reputation. The 22-year-old has been in scintilating form since moving to PSV in the summer, scoring nine goals and registering three assists in nine appearances from the left flank, and is unquestionably one to watch in Russia.</div>
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Given the talent at their disposal it's fair to say that Serbia have underachieved for some time now, though they began to put that right in qualifying, scoring 20 goals in ten matches to top a competitive group. It may not have included one of Europe's big hitters but the likes of Ireland, Wales and Austria all featured at the Euros last summer where Serbia did not. There is the issue of appointing a new head coach to sort following the shock departure of Slavoljub Muslin but if they get the right man there is so much to work with in the ranks.</div>
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Skippered by Branislav Ivanovic, there are plenty of familiar faces in the defence, including former Manchester City duo Kolarov and Nastasic, but as with Croatia it's in midfield where they are really spoilt for choice. Nemanja Matic is of course at it's heart but Sergej Milinkovic-Savic may well be the man to build the team around having only earned his first senior cap last week. The Lazio middle man can play in a deep or advanced role, offering superb physicality in and out of possession to help to make the side a real force. Meanwhile the likes of Adem Ljajic, Dusan Tadic and the exciting Andrija Zivkovic ensure the side is not short of creativity either.</div>
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Having reached the World Cup for only the second time, Senegal will want to improve upon what was a shock progression to the quarter-finals in 2002. Their squad is certainly far stronger than it was fifteen years ago, when Papa Bouba Diop scored and celebrated a famous winner against France in the tournament opener. With impressive options in almost all positions, they are one of those dark horses that will be relatively well backed given the familiarity of their squad.</div>
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Kalidou Koulibaly and Kara form a strong centre-back pairing, while Youssouf Sabaly, who earned his first cap at the weekend having switched allegiances from France, is a very capable right-back. With Cheikhou Kouyate and Idrissa Gueye offering solid protection to what is a strong defence, they should prove hard to beat, while the width offered by Sadio Mane and Keita Balde could be among the most fearsome next summer. At <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="249/1">250.00 on the Exchange, they're perhaps the best priced team out there right now.</div>
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Among the rank outsiders, Morocco have already upset the odds to a degree by qualifying for the tournament ahead of Ivory Coast, and doing so in impressive fashion to boot. Reaching the finals for the first time since the turn of the century, this current crop of players could quite conceivably deliver their best ever finish having failed to make it past the round of 32 in the past.</div>
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Herve Renard, who has had great success in international management in Africa, leading both Zambia [2012) and Ivory Coast [2015] to AFCON glory - the first manager to do so with two different countries - will manage at his first ever World Cup having organised this squad superbly.</div>
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In fact, Morocco didn't concede a single goal in qualifying, which was some feat up against not only his former employers but also Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's Gabon. The defence is captained by the underrated Medhi Benatia and also boasts a star of the future in Real Madrid teenager Achraf Hakimi at right-back. For the time being, though, Ajax's Hakim Ziyech is the real jewel in a side that the likes of Sofiane Boufal and Amine Harit can't force a way into given the depth of attacking options.</div>
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World Cup 2018: Five long odds bets for Russia

With just two places at next summer's World Cup still up for grabs, the tournament in Russia is taking shape, with the draw on December...

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World Cup Qualifier: Socceroos v Honduras (2nd Leg)

WCQ: Australia v Honduras Wednesday 8:00pm (AEDT) at Stadium Australia, Sydney 
 
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The Wolf is the first to admit that he got the first leg very wrong. The 0-0 draw was a great result for the Socceroos and what was even more surprising was their complete dominance. Honduras offered next to nothing in attack and will need to make a sharp improvement if they are to deny the Socceroos. The visitors will be up against it in more ways than one. Australia will have the advantage of additional rest thanks to a chartered flight, a huge home crowd and substantially more depth. Based on the first leg there is no reason why Australia cannot settle this tie in the first half.</div>
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Can there be extra-time?</div>
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There is only one scoreline which would lead to extra time and it is 0-0. Victory for either side would see them qualify and a score draw (1-1, 2-2, 3-3 ect) would result in Honduras qualifying on the away goals rule.</div>
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Where will it be won?</div>
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If the Socceroos can take their chances this one could be over at half time. They were guilty of very several genuine chances in Honduras and cannot afford the same complacency in front of goal. The match will take on a very different complexion to that at the Estadio Olimpico Metropolitano. The surface in Honduras was abysmal with players taking out chunks of grass. In contrast the surface at Homebush is all but perfect. With no rain at all leading into the game The Socceroos will have the ideal pitch for their passing game.</div>
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Midfield again holds the key but The Wolf says we will see several changes. Luongo and Irvine were two of Australia’s best in Honduras but they along with Jedinak are likely to be rotated. Rogic and Milligan are almost certainties to join Mooy in midfield with Leckie and Troisi also likely to play a role. The back trio is likely to remain – especially after the Socceroos maintained their first clean sheet in 10 matches.</div>
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Will we see Tim Cahill?</div>
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Cahill has stated that he is confident that he can take part on Wednesday evening but The Wolf suspects he will start on the bench where he could make an immediate impact if needed in the second half. It would be a massive risk to start him. If he had to come off early it would not only mean an early substitution but would also have an adverse effect on team morale. Conversely, if the game were in the balance and Cahill number were to come up on the board the crowd would go crazy and there would be a huge lift throughout the entire squad. It makes sense for Ange to keep Cahill as the ace up the sleeve.</div>
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Final Verdict</div>
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Australia will take complete control of the centre of the park and on that basis alone they should be able to prevent Honduras from posing any threat. The Wolf was shocked at how easily the Socceroos were able to win the ball back in midfield in the 1st leg and cannot see how Honduras can reverse that pattern. The Socceroos can make life hard for themselves if they are wasteful in front of goal but The Wolf says the initial focus will be on taking control and preventing any counter-attacks. The Wolf doesn’t expect things to open up at any point. The Socceroos should take the lead prior to the hour mark and the nerves will be put to bet with a second goal late on. It’s been a long, hard road but the Socceroos will get it done.</div>
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Recommended Bets</h4>
 
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Best: Australia WIN ($1.60) Other: Under 2.5 goals ($1.61) Value: Teams To Score – Australia Only ($2.25) Correct Score: Australia 2-0 ($6.50)</div>
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World Cup Qualifier: Socceroos v Honduras (2nd Leg)

WCQ: Australia v Honduras Wednesday 8:00pm (AEDT) at Stadium Australia, Sydney The Wolf is the first to admit that he got the first leg v...

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Find Me a 100 Winner: A trio of outsider picks for Sea Island

Last year's RSM Classic was won by a 599-1 shot and Mackenzie Hughes wasn't the first outsider to thrive at Sea Island either. Paul Krishnamurty runs the rule over this year's field in search of picks at 99-1 or better...

In a busy golfing week, involving tournaments spanning four continents, the highlight from a pedigree perspective is obviously the DP World Tour Championship - previewed here by Steve Rawlings. Fittingly for the Race to Dubai finale, this is one of the most reliable form events on the calendar - always producing a very high-class leaderboard and, to date, obvious champions.

Utterly terrible trends for outsiders then, but I must at least mention a few that caught the eye for Jumeirah. Considering his good form - second at the Nedbank, sixth at Valderrama - 200.00 about Scott Jamieson looks too big. Plus both my each-way pick George Coetzee and Mike Norman's selection Ryan Fox are trading at 100.00 and 290.00 respectively on the exchange. Despite those enhanced odds, though, I'd rather back them each-way as winning or trading short will be very difficult in this company.

In complete contrast, historic leaderboards at the RSM Classic are packed with outsiders, including some very unlikely winners - not least Mackenzie Hughes at 600.00 last year. Whilst this column has never had a winner at Sea Island, we did go agonisingly close in 2013, when 500.00 pick Briny Baird lost by a shot after trading below 1.20. As those instances imply, don't be afraid to take huge odds about a fancy here.

Back Sean O'Hair 2u @ 120.00

Place order to lay 12u @ 12.00

Place order to lay 20u @ 3.00

Sean O'Hair is always liable to be selected here when conditions suit. Though inconsistent, he's high-class at his best and tends to contend strongly at least once or twice per season. It's six years since the last of his four PGA Tour wins (still a fair return for a 35 year-old), but he has finished runner-up in an event in each of the last three seasons.

He wasn't in terrible form when last seen during the FedEx Cup and makes his seasonal debut at a track where his record is solid, registering four top-20 finishes in five attempts.

Back Michael Thompson 1u e/w @ 200/1 (1/5 odds, 1-7 places)

We're taking a chance on well-being here but, from a course form perspective, Thompson is a no-brainer at these odds. Among five visits he's finished third, tenth and 13th. This one-time US Open runner-up would also probably have been much shorter six months ago, after registering a respectable six top-20 finishes early last season.

The problem is that Thompson went on to miss the summer with injury, only returning a fortnight ago at the Shriners. While 72nd place there hardly excites, hitting 82% of greens in regulation is encouraging.

Back Tom Hoge 2u @ 220.00

Place order to lay 10u @ 25.00

Place order to lay 10u @ 10.00

Great putting and plenty of birdies are essential to contend at Sea Island and that brings Tom Hoge into the equation. He ranks ninth for putting and seventh for birdie average amongst these over the past year and only seems to thrive in low scoring conditions.

Easily his best two recent results were in birdie-fests - fourth at the Barracuda and seventh a fortnight ago at the Shriners. Another promising clue is that seven of his ten rounds at Sea Island to date were sub-69.

There was no shortage of alternatives on the shortlist. Dave Tindall has dug out a very interesting 80/1 each-way bet on J.T. Poston and at 110.00 on the exchange, he falls within our price range. At the same odds, Dave's other recent 100/1 winner Ryan Armour also came in for consideration.

First reserve is David Lingmerth at 150.00 - a cracking putter who was only excluded because of uncertainty after he withdrew from the OHL. And finally I absolutely wouldn't deter anyone from sticking with last week's profitable pick Brian Gay at 200.00. He's finished fourth here previously and ranks second amongst these for putting over the last three months.

DP World Tour Championship: Rahm ready to win again at venue likely to suit

The European Tour season ends in Dubai this week with three men gunning to be top dog. Read our man's comprehensive preview of the season finale at the Jumeirah Golf Estates here...

Tournament History
The DP World Tour Championship was first staged in 2009, when the European Tour replicated the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup with its own version called the Race to Dubai.

The DP World Tour Championship is the eighth and final event of the Rolex Series and it determines who wins the R2D. It's a limited field event for the top-60 in the standings.

Lee Westwood won the inaugural staging and in doing so he won the R2D, having trailed Rory McIlroy in the season long race before the off, but for the next five years the R2D was all sewn up before this tournament began so changes had to be made.

Seven players were in with a chance before the off two years ago, four could still win it last year but only three are in the running this time around -Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose and Sergio Garcia.

Four of the eight winners of this tournament to date, also won the Race to Dubai.

Venue
The Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, UAE.

Course Details
Par 72, 7,831 yards
Stroke index in 2016 - 70.41

The Greg Norman designed Earth Course has been the event's venue since its inception. It's a long typical desert track with generous fairways.

The Tifeagle Bermuda grass greens are large and undulating, with a lot of run-off areas, and they usually run at around 12.5 on the stimpmeter. Water is in-play on the 6th, 14th and last three holes.

It's a stunning finish that has the potential to produce much drama. The par three 17th has an island green and the par five 18th, with water in play twice if you go for the green and three times if you lay-up, is an intriguing hole, where scores can vary greatly - although players are starting to work out how to play the hole and last year it averaged 4.85 and below par for the third year in-a-row.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 08:00 on Thursday.

First Eight DP World Tour Championship Winners
2009 - Lee Westwood -23
2010 - Robert Karlsson -14 (playoff)
2011 - Alvaro Quiros -19
2012 - Rory McIlroy -23
2013 - Henrik Stenson -25
2014 - Henrik Stenson -16
2015 - Rory McIlroy -21
2016 - Matthew Fitzpatrick -17

What Will it Take to Win the DP World Tour Championship?
The Earth Course is long and the fairways are generous so hitting it a long way is a distinct advantage and it's no surprise to see that last year's winner, Matthew Fitzpatrick, is the only winner to rank outside the top-eight for Driving Distance but he wasn't that short - ranking 16th for DD.

Fitzpatrick ranked second for Driving Accuracy but that's a largely irrelevant stat. Rory McIlroy only ranked tied for 36th for Driving Accuracy two years ago and when Alvaro Quiros won here in 2011, he ranked 55th for D.A and remember, there were only 60 in the line-up!

McIlroy only ranked tied 25th for Greens In Regulation when he first won the tournament in 2012 and Fitzpatrick only ranked 21st but those two look like the outliers and five of the eight winners have ranked inside the top-four for GIR.

The 2014 renewal produced some strange putting stats (see below) but that looks like a bit of a one-off given Stenson's Putting Average ranking was 16th and every other winner's ranking has been eighth or better. The first three home last year had a PA ranking for the week of second, fourth and fifth and they ranked tied third, first and tied third for Putts Per Round.

1st, Henrik Stenson - Putting Average ranking T16th and Putts per Round ranking 24th
T2nd, Rory McIlroy - Putting Average ranking T16th and Putts per Round ranking 18th
T2nd, Justin Rose - Putting Average ranking 14th and Putts per Round ranking 18th
T2nd, Victor Dubuisson - Putting Average ranking 21st and Putts per Round ranking 30th

Is There an Angle In?
Anyone who plays desert golf well has to be respected and the two events to really concentrate on are the Dubai Desert Classic and the Qatar Masters.

Three of the six players to have won this event in its very short history - Stenson (twice), McIlroy (twice) and Alvaro Quiros - have all won the Dubai Desert Classic and the 2012 DDC winner, Rafael Cabrera-Bello, traded at just 1.48 in this event three years ago before throwing the tournament away at the 16th hole. Cabrera-Bello and the 2015 runner-up here, Andy Sullivan, both finished tied for second at the DDC in the February of 2015.

In addition to winning this title, Robert Karlsson, Stenson and Quiros have also won in Qatar, and Lee Westwood should arguably have won at all three venues. The inaugural winner of this tournament has been in contention numerous times in Qatar and he's twice finished runner-up at the DDC. The same can be said of the infuriating-to-follow, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, who was also runner-up in Qatar last year.

Fitzpatrick was the first winner here that didn't have a really strong desert golf pedigree.

Is There an Identikit Winner?
All eight winners were in form and Stenson, three years ago, is the only winner not to have won an event somewhere earlier in the season.

All the winners have been top-class players and up until last year, when Fitzpatrick won having been matched at a triple-figure price before the off, the 2011 winner, Quiros, who was matched at odds of 44.00, had been, by some distance, the biggest priced winner of the event.

Rory and Stenson, who have both won the event twice in the last five years, were trading at single-figure prices each year so the tournament has a history of going to the fancied players.

In-Play Tactics
Fitzpatrick sat tied for seventh after an opening three-under-par 69 last year and that's the furthest from the front any winner has been after round one but he was still only three off the lead. This is most certainly a front-runners' track and the previous seven winners had all opened up with a round of 68 or better and all seven were inside the top-six places after day one.

Fitzpatrick still trailed by three at halfway and he, Rory (in 2015), and Robert Karlsson, who beat Ian Poulter in a play-off in 2010, are the only winners not to be in front after rounds two and three. The other five winners were all never headed after 36 holes. Bizarrely, Karlsson is the only first round leader to go on to win though. He'd dropped back after a second round 75 before rallying with back-to-back 67s over the weekend to catch Poults.

As they've done in each of the last two weeks on the European Tour, the field will go out in reverse order after round one this week and that might go some way to explaining why the leaders are so hard to catch.

When interviewed by Sky after round two last year, Andy Sullivan talked about how much warmer it was in the afternoons here and how he couldn't reach the second green in two in the morning but that the later starters would get there easily. Maybe the leaders getting more favourable conditions is one of the reasons why it's hard to play catch-up?

If you're betting in-running, beware the tricky finish where we've already witnessed drama aplenty. The 16th is a fairly difficult par four that really caught out Cabrera-Bello in 2014 and the par three 17th is also tough. Having been two clear and having already been matched at a low of just 1.04, Rory hit a stinker of a tee-shot there two years ago to find the water. It looked like it was game on for a few minutes and that he and the eventual runner-up, the aforementioned Sullivan, would go up the 18th tied for the lead. Rory drained his bogey putt from around 30 feet and from that moment on there was only ever going to be one winner but last year was even more dramatic...

Tyrrell Hatton was matched at odds-on on five separate occasions during round four and he hit a low of 1.13 when he made a miraculous par save at the 17th hole but with the event at his mercy, he drove in to the water on the 18th and Fitzpatrick made birdie there to pip him by one.

Market Leaders
It's hard to dismiss the chances of Justin Rose given he's twice finished runner-up here and that he's looking to win his third event in-a-row. As already mentioned above, this is a tournament that tends to go to the fancied runners and I wouldn't attempt to talk anyone out of backing him at an industry-wide best of 7/1 with the Sportsbook.

Despite leading the event at the halfway stage 12 months ago, Sergio Garcia's form around here isn't great and his figures read an uninspiring 7-21-11-9-12-19. We've not seen the US Masters winner since he won at Valderrama last month and I'm more than happy to leave him out of my calculations. At a slightly bigger price, I much prefer the chances of fellow Spaniard, Jon Rahm.

The big hitting world number five has been a bit disappointing of late, missing the cut at Valderrama and failing to get competitive at the WGC HSBC Champions in China last time out and he could be construed as a risky play here given that form and the fact that he's playing here for the first time but at around 15.00, he looks very reasonably priced.

Rahm hasn't got any desert golf experience but he was fifth at the Phoenix Open in just his second start on the PGA Tour and I can see him taking to the Earth Course like a duck to water.

Last week's winner, Branden Grace, has twice won the Qatar Masters and he may well have won it three times had he entered the event in January so he ticks the course correlation box and indeed, he has played well here before, finishing sixth on debut on 2012 and third two years ago. Tyrrell Hatton and Rose have both already won back-to-back this autumn and it's certainly not inconceivable that Grace could emulate them given he's previously won back-to-back tournaments twice before.

Selection
I could very easily have backed both Rose and Grace. I can see the pair going well and I also liked Victor Dubuisson, who has great course and current form but I was on board at 65.00 when he led with a round to go last year at and I just can't back him at less than half that price this time around.

I know the field isn't as strong as it was 12 months ago and that he played well last week but he was third in the Nedbank 12 months ago too so all things considered he's a fraction short so I'm going to begin the week with just a small bet on Rahm.

This looks like a perfect test for the highest ranked player in the field and I thought he was two or three points too big.

Selection:
Jon Rahm @ 15.50

Republic of Ireland v Denmark: Another tight encounter likely in Dublin

Martin O'Neil's side head home with their World Cup qualification hopes in the balance, Daniel McDonnell gives his verdict on whether they can book their ticket to Russia...

Republic Of Ireland v Denmark
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Martin O'Neill's side enter the return leg of their World Cup qualifier with Denmark knowing that any kind of home win puts them into next summer's finals. They didn't get the away goal they wanted from Saturday's drab first leg in Copenhagen, but they did keep a clean sheet and succeeded in frustrating their hosts.

Danish midfielder Thomas Delaney compared the task of breaking down Ireland to the challenge of opening a tin of baked beans with bare hands. Ireland's approach to the game is best summed up by the fact that the player that made the most passes was goalkeeper Darren Randolph with 31. Safety first was the priority. Instead of the risky through ball, Ireland played the percentages and went long. It wasn't pretty but the players felt it was effective.

They need to produce a performance on home soil that consigns any memories of Denmark to the dustbin. If Denmark succeed in scoring in Dublin, Ireland will need two to advance. Denmark's manager Age Hareide pointed out on Saturday evening that O'Neill's men tend not to do that so often. But they did hit that target in their last play-off decider, the crunch Euro 2016 encounter with Bosnia two years ago.

On that occasion, the Irish had the security of an away goal in the bank - after a 1-1 draw in the away leg - which gave them the knowledge of knowing that a scoreless draw in Dublin would be enough. They did more than that by registering a 2-0 win in an assertive performance where they were aggressive in the opposition half from the outset and got their reward.

The debate ahead of the second game is if O'Neill will encourage his players to really go for it. He welcomes David Meyler back from suspension and his inclusion in midfield would free Jeff Hendrick to move to the right of a 4-5-1. The alternative would be to go with two strikers, which O'Neill has tended to do in home matches.

But he is light on options and selecting both Shane Long and Daryl Murphy would leave him short of an attacker on the bench in case of emergency. The uncapped Scott Hogan is his only other option. Selecting Long ahead of Murphy would freshen things up and leave the bigger man in reserve. Denmark have options in the forward department too, and they lacked subtlety in round one with Christian Eriksen well shackled by a busy Irish midfield.

The Aviva Stadium is not a particularly intimidating venue but there have been exceptions to the rule and a high intensity Irish approach will be required to really get the crowd going and avoid the situation where Hareide's side monopolise possession.

Denmark's status as narrow favourites is most likely drawn from the fact they had the better chances and have a good record away from home. But a score draw will do for them and it's a leap to think that getting involved on a 90 minute win for the away side is the play.

The 3.10 about Ireland is not especially tempting either; they are very much capable of grinding out the result but they are unlikely to go ahead early if they do so. Given the likely in-play movements, laying the visitors at 2.80 appeals as the bet.

Recommended Bets
Half Time - Draw 1.83

The 1.83 about the sides being level at the break stands out. Both sides have spoken about the importance of getting the first goal, but they don't need it inside 15 minutes as much as O'Neill indicated on Monday that his side would try and be more expansive. Certainly, with the crowd on the backs, expect a passionate showing in the early minutes but they are unlikely to throw caution to the wind.

Meanwhile, the Danes are hopeful that they will get more space if Ireland commit bodies. They should have no reason to fear O'Neill's side, but their manager is experienced and they might well take the view that curbing Ireland's enthusiasm and quietening the crowd would be half the battle. That points to the game being all square at the halfway point

To Score: Ciaran Clark 10.50

With the main markets not exactly screaming obvious value with punters wise to the fact this should be low scoring with the potential to go all the way, this is a left field call.

Denmark were very conscious of Shane Duffy's threat from set pieces on Saturday and he was well shackled every time he ventured forward. But Ciaran Clark did wriggle into space on a couple of occasions with Duffy the priority. He's 10.50 to get on the scoresheet and with Ireland sending players forward for every corner and throw-in then a small play should at least give people a run for their money.

Premier League Top 4 Finish Betting: The big six clubs assessed

The final international break of the year is drawing to a close and with it comes arguably the most important period of the Premier League season. The four months between mid-November and the next international break in March sets the standard for the coming matches, which includes the hectic festive period.

After 11 games, the Premier League table is starting to take shape and some feel the current top-4 will finish as it is come May.

Impossible to back City but United look more attractive
Manchester City lead the way and sit a whopping 12 points above Liverpool in fifth and are favourites to lift the title next year at 1.22, let alone secure a Champions League spot.

City are unbackable at 1.01 on the Exchange to secure a Top 4 Finish, so there is better value elsewhere, even if it is by crossing the Manchester divide, with United looking strong contenders to secure a Champions League berth.

Manchester United were one of the favourites for the title last year, only to labour to a sixth-placed finish as Jose Mourinho focused his attention on the Europa League rather than strive to secure a place in Europe's elite club competition via the league. Following a summer of heavy investment, spending big to secure the likes of Romelu Lukaku and Nemanja Matic, United are primed to make an assault on the Champions League places.

They've conceded fewer goals (5) than any other Premier League team this season and have picked up 23 points of 33 points available. They are available to back at 1.30, which while not the most profitable of odds, is certainly more appealing than City. The only downside is the lingering doubts of Mourinho's future at Old Trafford. The Portuguese boss has been heavily linked with a United exit, with PSG supposedly keeping tabs on the 54-year-old and that could impact the club's form in the pursuit of a Champions League finish.

Solid Spurs can concentrate on Premier League in coming weeks
Tottenham are level on points with United in the Premier League but can be backed at slightly better odds, with a top-4 finish available at 1.34. Spurs look to be finding their feet at Wembley after an indifferent start to the season at the national stadium. Their away form has also been strong, with a 1-0 defeat at Old Trafford the only blip on the record.

Following a 3-1 win over Real Madrid, Mauricio Pochettino's side have secured a spot in the next round of the Champions League and they can instead focus their attention of maintaining their good league form.

The north London side have also performed well in a testing run of fixtures that culminates with a trip to Arsenal on Saturday. After that, they have a relatively easy set of matches before their visit to Manchester City in mid-December. If you wish to back Spurs for a top-4 finish, then the advice is to do it now as those odds will shorten if they win at Arsenal on Saturday before that 'easier' looking stretch of fixtures.

Kind upcoming fixtures for Blues offset by big European games
On the back of a 1-0 win over United before the international break, Chelsea make up the current top-4. They fell to defeat before and after the previous domestic hiatus, but have returned to winning ways in the Premier League, winning their last three.

What's more is between now and January, they face just one of last season's top-6, that coming in a trip to Liverpool later this month. Such a favourable run of games means odds of 1.54 could be tempting for punters.

That being said, they have struggled in the Champions League this season and the added pressure in their quest to navigate their group may see their league form suffer. Antonio Conte's side have, however, picked up seven points of a possible 12 in their four league games following a Champions League, including victory in their last two, suggesting they are adjusting accordingly to the additional matches that came with their return to European action.

Liverpool look a better bet than the Gunners
Chelsea sit just three points above Liverpool and Arsenal, with the Blues' meeting with the former expected to provide another twist in the race for a top-4 finish.

The Reds were boosted by the return of Sadio Mane, with the Senegalese forward influential in the 4-1 win at West Ham, though news of another hamstring injury picked up on international duty won't be music to Jurgen Klopp's ears.

The Reds' defence still requires improvement to ensure a second successive top-4 finish, however. Only Watford (21) have conceded more goals than Liverpool (17) of all teams in the top half of the table this season, but when their attack is on song, they're capable of blowing away any team. At 2.10 to back, they may attract some interest.

Rounding off the top-6 is Arsenal, who are level on points with Liverpool. The Gunners, though, face Spurs, Manchester United and Klopp's men before the year is out. Even if they welcome the trio to the Emirates, where they have won all five league matches this season, all three teams will pose a credible threat to their chances of a return to the Champions League.

With lingering doubts of Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil's futures at the club and the team struggling, it's for this reason they are the outside favourites of the current top-6 to secure a Champions League finish, being available to back at 3.20.

World Cup 2018: Five long odds bets for Russia

With just two places at next summer's World Cup still up for grabs, the tournament in Russia is taking shape, with the draw on December 1. The usual suspects are favourites in the market, but Martin Laurence has picked out a number of dark horses to keep an eye on at chunky prices...

Croatia - 38.00

They may have needed a play-off with Greece to reach the tournament proper but the early signs under new manager Zlatko Dalic are encouraging for the ever-entertaining Croatia. The 51-year-old had been working in the UAE before replacing Ante Cacic earlier this year but his lack of top level experience hasn't shown thus far, leading the side to crucial wins over Ukraine and Greece to book a spot in Russia.

With enviable firepower at his disposal, Dalic has left out Mario Mandzukic in recent times, with the likes of Nikola Kalinic and Andrej Kramaric getting the nod. They utilise the flanks very well but their main strength is unquestionably in central midfield, with the Modric-Rakitic partnership among the strongest in the international game.

Croatia have a squad capable of going deep into the latter stages and 38.00 looks a very good back-to-lay.

Mexico - 100.00

Another side that will look to upset the odds by going on the offensive next summer, Mexico reached the tournament with considerable ease for a record breaking seventh successive time. Their only defeat in the final phase of CONCACAF qualifying came in their last game against Honduras having already confirmed top spot - resting several players - and their experience and firepower is considerable.

Juan Carlos Osorio's squad is littered with international stalwarts but it's the emergence of a potential superstar that could see the Central Americans go far. Hirving Lozano stole the show in a recent friendly with the well-fancied golden generation of Belgium, which ended 3-3, scoring twice as he continues to build a big reputation. The 22-year-old has been in scintilating form since moving to PSV in the summer, scoring nine goals and registering three assists in nine appearances from the left flank, and is unquestionably one to watch in Russia.

Serbia - 140.00

Given the talent at their disposal it's fair to say that Serbia have underachieved for some time now, though they began to put that right in qualifying, scoring 20 goals in ten matches to top a competitive group. It may not have included one of Europe's big hitters but the likes of Ireland, Wales and Austria all featured at the Euros last summer where Serbia did not. There is the issue of appointing a new head coach to sort following the shock departure of Slavoljub Muslin but if they get the right man there is so much to work with in the ranks.

Skippered by Branislav Ivanovic, there are plenty of familiar faces in the defence, including former Manchester City duo Kolarov and Nastasic, but as with Croatia it's in midfield where they are really spoilt for choice. Nemanja Matic is of course at it's heart but Sergej Milinkovic-Savic may well be the man to build the team around having only earned his first senior cap last week. The Lazio middle man can play in a deep or advanced role, offering superb physicality in and out of possession to help to make the side a real force. Meanwhile the likes of Adem Ljajic, Dusan Tadic and the exciting Andrija Zivkovic ensure the side is not short of creativity either.

Senegal - 250.00

Having reached the World Cup for only the second time, Senegal will want to improve upon what was a shock progression to the quarter-finals in 2002. Their squad is certainly far stronger than it was fifteen years ago, when Papa Bouba Diop scored and celebrated a famous winner against France in the tournament opener. With impressive options in almost all positions, they are one of those dark horses that will be relatively well backed given the familiarity of their squad.

Kalidou Koulibaly and Kara form a strong centre-back pairing, while Youssouf Sabaly, who earned his first cap at the weekend having switched allegiances from France, is a very capable right-back. With Cheikhou Kouyate and Idrissa Gueye offering solid protection to what is a strong defence, they should prove hard to beat, while the width offered by Sadio Mane and Keita Balde could be among the most fearsome next summer. At 250.00 on the Exchange, they're perhaps the best priced team out there right now.

Morocco - 300.00

Among the rank outsiders, Morocco have already upset the odds to a degree by qualifying for the tournament ahead of Ivory Coast, and doing so in impressive fashion to boot. Reaching the finals for the first time since the turn of the century, this current crop of players could quite conceivably deliver their best ever finish having failed to make it past the round of 32 in the past.

Herve Renard, who has had great success in international management in Africa, leading both Zambia [2012) and Ivory Coast [2015] to AFCON glory - the first manager to do so with two different countries - will manage at his first ever World Cup having organised this squad superbly.

In fact, Morocco didn't concede a single goal in qualifying, which was some feat up against not only his former employers but also Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's Gabon. The defence is captained by the underrated Medhi Benatia and also boasts a star of the future in Real Madrid teenager Achraf Hakimi at right-back. For the time being, though, Ajax's Hakim Ziyech is the real jewel in a side that the likes of Sofiane Boufal and Amine Harit can't force a way into given the depth of attacking options.

World Cup Qualifier: Socceroos v Honduras (2nd Leg)

WCQ: Australia v Honduras
Wednesday 8:00pm (AEDT) at
Stadium Australia, Sydney

The Wolf is the first to admit that he got the first leg very wrong. The 0-0 draw was a great result for the Socceroos and what was even more surprising was their complete dominance. Honduras offered next to nothing in attack and will need to make a sharp improvement if they are to deny the Socceroos. The visitors will be up against it in more ways than one. Australia will have the advantage of additional rest thanks to a chartered flight, a huge home crowd and substantially more depth. Based on the first leg there is no reason why Australia cannot settle this tie in the first half.

Can there be extra-time?

There is only one scoreline which would lead to extra time and it is 0-0. Victory for either side would see them qualify and a score draw (1-1, 2-2, 3-3 ect) would result in Honduras qualifying on the away goals rule.

Where will it be won?

If the Socceroos can take their chances this one could be over at half time. They were guilty of very several genuine chances in Honduras and cannot afford the same complacency in front of goal. The match will take on a very different complexion to that at the Estadio Olimpico Metropolitano. The surface in Honduras was abysmal with players taking out chunks of grass. In contrast the surface at Homebush is all but perfect. With no rain at all leading into the game The Socceroos will have the ideal pitch for their passing game.

Midfield again holds the key but The Wolf says we will see several changes. Luongo and Irvine were two of Australia’s best in Honduras but they along with Jedinak are likely to be rotated. Rogic and Milligan are almost certainties to join Mooy in midfield with Leckie and Troisi also likely to play a role. The back trio is likely to remain – especially after the Socceroos maintained their first clean sheet in 10 matches.

Will we see Tim Cahill?

Cahill has stated that he is confident that he can take part on Wednesday evening but The Wolf suspects he will start on the bench where he could make an immediate impact if needed in the second half. It would be a massive risk to start him. If he had to come off early it would not only mean an early substitution but would also have an adverse effect on team morale. Conversely, if the game were in the balance and Cahill number were to come up on the board the crowd would go crazy and there would be a huge lift throughout the entire squad. It makes sense for Ange to keep Cahill as the ace up the sleeve.

Final Verdict

Australia will take complete control of the centre of the park and on that basis alone they should be able to prevent Honduras from posing any threat. The Wolf was shocked at how easily the Socceroos were able to win the ball back in midfield in the 1st leg and cannot see how Honduras can reverse that pattern. The Socceroos can make life hard for themselves if they are wasteful in front of goal but The Wolf says the initial focus will be on taking control and preventing any counter-attacks. The Wolf doesn’t expect things to open up at any point. The Socceroos should take the lead prior to the hour mark and the nerves will be put to bet with a second goal late on. It’s been a long, hard road but the Socceroos will get it done.

Recommended Bets

Best: Australia WIN ($1.60)
Other: Under 2.5 goals ($1.61)
Value: Teams To Score – Australia Only ($2.25)
Correct Score: Australia 2-0 ($6.50)

Top

Find Me a 100 Winner: A trio of outsider picks for Sea Island

DP World Tour Championship: Rahm ready to win again at venue likely to suit

Republic of Ireland v Denmark: Another tight encounter likely in Dublin

Premier League Top 4 Finish Betting: The big six clubs assessed

World Cup 2018: Five long odds bets for Russia

World Cup Qualifier: Socceroos v Honduras (2nd Leg)

Friday International Friendlies Tips

AFL Preview: Bombers v Blues

JLT: Fremantle v Carlton

Man City v Newcastle

Argentina v Paraguay: Outsiders can frustrate Messi and company

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Blog Archive

Find Me a 100 Winner: A trio of outsider picks for Sea Island

DP World Tour Championship: Rahm ready to win again at venue likely to suit

Republic of Ireland v Denmark: Another tight encounter likely in Dublin

Premier League Top 4 Finish Betting: The big six clubs assessed

World Cup 2018: Five long odds bets for Russia

Croatia - 38.00

Mexico - 100.00

Serbia - 140.00

Senegal - 250.00

Morocco - 300.00

World Cup Qualifier: Socceroos v Honduras (2nd Leg)

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