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Exeter v Lincoln City: Grecians to reach final again

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<strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;">Exeter City v Lincoln City</span><br />Thursday 17th May 2018, 19:45<br />Live on Sky Sports</span></strong></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">A St James' Park swansong for Tisdale?</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This will be the last game at St James' Park for <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Steve Perryman</strong> in his role as Exeter's director of football. Will any pre-match adulation give the Grecians the spur they need to push through from this very tight semi-final to reach Wembley for a second season running?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Similarly, this season could be a swansong for <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Paul Tisdale</strong>, who hasn't clarified his future. English football's longest-serving manager, now Arsene Wenger has finished at Arsenal, is out of contract in October. The comparisons to the Frenchman are startling. Some think Exeter would want to keep him because of his success (getting them back into the Football League and challenging for promotion), but other fans think fresh ideas are needed.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What about the man himself? Does he need a new challenge? MK Dons have been mentioned. The players won't want to miss out on promotion again, as they did when losing to Blackpool in last year's playoff final.</span></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Lincoln defence beset by injuries</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tisdale expected opponents Lincoln to be "purposeful and effective". While neither of the Imps' front pair have scored in double figures this season, <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Michael Bostwick</strong> is an engine room in midfield that the Exeter boss knows has to be contained.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The problem for Danny Cowley's successful cup side is a few injuries, hitting the defence hardest. <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Sam Habergham </strong>remains a doubt, which forced a reshuffle including <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Scott Wharton </strong>from left-back to centre-back and <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Neal Eardley</strong> from the right to left. Will <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Sean Long</strong> be thrown in to give the side an attacking defender?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cowley says the pressure will be on Exeter and expects the Imps to be written off. I wouldn't say that at all. I think this will be a tight affair. I do expect the home team to progress, although I'm not sure it will go to penalties. In the <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;">Qualifying Method</span></strong> market, both sides are <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="7/2"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>4.60</b></span></span> to win in extra time, and both are <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="13/2"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>7.40</b></span></span> to do so on penalties. It could be worth keeping an eye on as the game goes on.</span></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Hosts seem long for victory</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Given that Exeter have a strong home form, with 15 wins and a +15 goal difference, and Lincoln's away goals record is +1, the odds pushing <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="15/8"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>2.90</b></span></span> on the home win in the <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;">match odds</span></strong> market look generous. The away win is a touch shorter at <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="9/5"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>2.82</b></span></span>. Layers therefore make the teams even, with the draw on the shorter side of average, <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="9/4"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>3.30</b></span></span>. Oddly, however, in the <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;">to qualify</span></strong> market there is a marked difference between Exeter's <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="20/21"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>1.94</b></span></span> price and Lincoln's that heads towards <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="11/10"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>2.10</b></span></span>.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Exeter used <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jordan Tillson</strong> to try to contain <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Matt Rhead</strong> on Saturday, but various other talents lie in wait in the form of <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lee Holmes, Jack Sparkes and Matt Jay</strong>.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Centre-back <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Troy Brown</strong>'s return boosts the hosts, although <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jordan Storey</strong> has done well in his place.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tisdale will need to be a little more adventurous than the 4-5-1 employed for the first leg, with <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jayden Stockley</strong> isolated at times up front. Safety first was OK for the first leg. Maybe another <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Troy - Archibald Henville</strong> - can take care of the Imps main attacking threats.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While Exeter are more capable of winning at home than away, Lincoln have progressed through the National League and now into the League Two playoffs by being consistent. But their away form is average (8 wins, 7 draws, 8 defeats). They have a winning mentality and a strong squad which knows that, if it does not perform, cup run money can be spent on replacements.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, the visitors' best finisher <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Matt Green</strong> hasn't found the net since early April, perhaps because of an enforced shift to 4-3-3. Lincoln have struggled, generally, to find goals recently. And I continue to insist that <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Christy Pym</strong>, Exeter's goalkeeper, will continue to be Lincoln's biggest roadblock. Many times over the past couple of seasons, reports have sung his praises.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At the other end, Stockley needs to find that moment of magic, whether or not he truly flourishes in the formation that Exeter put out on the day, to prove that he has class above League Two. The better the striker, the more they make opportunities happen for themselves with their off-ball movement.</span></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Stockley to score first, as consistency prevails.</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">How will Exeter break down stubborn visitors? <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jordan Moore-Taylor</strong>, a key player for the hosts, in defence is hardly likely to feature in the goals but just might (he has two) while <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Pierce Sweeney</strong> at <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="11/1"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>12.50</b></span></span> alongside him on eight and <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jake Taylor</strong> at <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="11/1"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>12.50</b></span></span> has eight from midfield.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I'm still convinced that Stockley's 19 goals make him the most likely <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;">first scorer</span> </strong>and he is unsurprisingly favourite at <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="4/1"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>4.90</b></span></span>. His chances will rise in a freer formation than the restrictive one in the first leg. Opta say he has scored 12 in the calendar year to date and only Colchester's Mo Eisa (14) and Coventry's Marc McNulty (15) have scored more in 2018.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From Lincoln's perspective, the <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="6/1"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>6.80</b></span></span> priced Rhead (8 goals), who arguably came closest to scoring in the first leg, out does Green (13 goals, priced <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="5/1"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>5.90</b></span></span>) as their best chance of a scoring first. Mind you, Elliott Whitehouse scoring the winner in the Football League Trophy final shows that irregular scorers such as <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Tom Pett</strong> could easily prove just as handy. Those two can be taken at <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="16/1"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>17.50</b></span></span> or <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="11/1"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>12.50</b></span></span>, the latter being the same bet as another possible, <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Lee Frecklington</strong>.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></span></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Urgency for goals should result in over 2.5</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The overwhelming temptation when two low-scoring draws take place in the first legs of playoffs is to think that the two home teams are now favourites - and that there must be goals as both teams see the urgency of getting a victory.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tisdale believes the game will come down to "the second half of the second leg". And of course, that is true (unless it goes to extra time), but maybe what he means is: - anything can happen in the last 15 minutes of a football match. Few would have thought Tottenham would come back from 3-1 down to win 5-4 against Leicester on Sunday in that Wembley thriller.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hopefully a goal in the first half will spice up this sell out match. I am convinced both teams will bare their teeth and find a way to score, with Exeter winning, so it only has to be 2-1 to achieve the value of <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;">over 2.5 goals</span> </strong>at <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="6/4"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>2.50</b></span></span>.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Opta remind us that Exeter drew their away leg last season on the way to Wembley, winning the second leg 3-2. However, they did draw that first leg 3-3!</span></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Ref watch</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Darren England </strong>is a Championship referee regularly but has taken charge of some League Two games this season. He'll need to adjust his expectations of players at that level. He's not red card happy, but did issue six and eight yellows in his final two Championships games. There are likely to be more than the one yellow that was issued in the first leg as the intensity grows, so 30-40 points might be likely.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">RECOMMENDED BETS</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Back Exeter to beat Lincoln @ 2.90 (90 minutes)</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Back Jayden Stockley to be first goalscorer @ 4.90</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.50</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPbCyOyNQXfcQ6V_UqQ3a3mMRfROPz0TOkEHes3nrnV6lQ-0KoaVM1QeTlS2EH7R7FYLQtMgwvfDCYd3mbUW9elk-ST4U-WcUN4j5e5RdrlIZO8_QUuOaIxQdPpYxx54c7FK0h7AF-ycE/s1600/Ben-Toner-Referee-1-800x504.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="800" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPbCyOyNQXfcQ6V_UqQ3a3mMRfROPz0TOkEHes3nrnV6lQ-0KoaVM1QeTlS2EH7R7FYLQtMgwvfDCYd3mbUW9elk-ST4U-WcUN4j5e5RdrlIZO8_QUuOaIxQdPpYxx54c7FK0h7AF-ycE/s640/Ben-Toner-Referee-1-800x504.jpg" width="640" /></a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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Exeter v Lincoln City: Grecians to reach final again

Exeter City v Lincoln City Thursday 17th May 2018, 19:45 Live on Sky Sports A St James' Park swansong for Tisdale? This will b...

23:05

Madrid Masters Day 7: Can Anderson's head to head lead be trusted?

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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">semi-finals take place, and our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, is back to discuss the two matches...</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></span></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Nadal steamroller derailed by Thiem</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">50 and out - not the rules of a backyard cricket match, but Rafa Nadal's clay record, as his <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">50 set unbeaten run</strong> was halted by Dominic Thiem in straight sets. Thiem ironically was the last man to beat Nadal on clay, in Rome last year, and is now the man who prevented him from going a year unbeaten, without dropping a set, on his favourite surface.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thiem's reward is a semi-final clash with Kevin Anderson, with this match kicking off proceedings at 15:00 UK time in the Spanish capital.</span></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Anderson head to head lead worth debating</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The first thing I noticed when looking at this match-up is the absurd <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">head to head lead</strong> that Anderson enjoys over his Austrian rival, with the big-server winning all seven meetings. However, one was in an exhibition match, and two were when Thiem was not even close to the top 20, so we can at least discount them and consider it to be a more realistic 4-0 record.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">None of these were on clay, but they all were played at venues which I would not grade as playing particularly slow, and certainly Madrid falls into this category as well, being the quickest clay court on the ATP Tour. The question is this - <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">how much relevance</strong> do we give this Anderson head to head lead? It's a tough question to answer, but I'd lean towards not a great deal.</span></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Value on Anderson depending on head to head lean</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Market prices have Thiem as a strong favourite at <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="2/5"><span style="border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>1.41</b></span></span>, with <span style="border-bottom: 1px dashed rgb(187, 187, 187); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>Anderson a 3.35] underdog</b></span>, and my model made this a little value on the South African, but not enough to <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">warrant recommendation</strong>. Regarding a recommendation for this match, it really boils down to whether you think the head to head record has some relevance to this future match-up. If so, then you may wish to avail yourself of this price on Anderson.</span></div>
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<strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Zverev a heavy favourite to defeat surprise package Shapovalov</span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Following this match, Alexander Zverev <span style="border-bottom: 1px dashed rgb(187, 187, 187); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>is a heavy</b></span> <span class="inline-odds" style="border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="1/4">1.25</span> favourite to make the final, as he faces Denis Shapovalov, who got the better of Kyle Edmund in three sets yesterday. Shapovalov had no record on clay whatsoever prior to this week but is obviously on an <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">upward curve</strong> in his career.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, the Canadian's performances this week have been influenced by him taking his chances - he's converted 47.8% of break point chances in Madrid, which is vastly bigger than his 35.7% return points won percentage. Historical player analysis shows that it's very difficult to maintain such a <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">'clutch' ability</strong>, and perhaps he's over-performed a little this week.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My model largely agreed with the <strong style="border: 0px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">market pricing</strong> in any case - Zverev's level (119.4% combined serve/return points won percentage) this week has been exceptional and it would be very surprising if the German did not make tomorrow's final.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfP7ggiyJ6_cINJqtI99tANJCGiV3Zr7L5ERoQUe-LsH-6QlAvLfLd8oIgeL2-l6-xnVQDRWx5PR56dCanlyi5ENBxKIkduIgFNZdsDubDWy6kBfyqIPb2GyaulatmghsgueCcPY2DJH0/s1600/Anderson-1280.956x538.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="538" data-original-width="956" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfP7ggiyJ6_cINJqtI99tANJCGiV3Zr7L5ERoQUe-LsH-6QlAvLfLd8oIgeL2-l6-xnVQDRWx5PR56dCanlyi5ENBxKIkduIgFNZdsDubDWy6kBfyqIPb2GyaulatmghsgueCcPY2DJH0/s640/Anderson-1280.956x538.jpg" width="640" /></a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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