Arsenal v Hull: Tigers to be tenacious again

Arsenal v Hull City
Saturday February 11, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Arsenal

So here we are again. We have reached another February, and it appears that Arsenal's title challenge is once again dust and dreams. A tough Champions League last-16 tie against Bayern Munich looms on the horizon (although Bayern aren't playing that well, truth be told), and a fierce battle for a place in next season's competition awaits.

Whether you are an Arsene Wenger loyalist or an advocate for change, the bare facts tell a brutal truth. Arsenal were ten points off top spot at the end of last season, 12 points behind at the conclusion of the previous campaign, and they trailed by seven points the season before that. They haven't been within five points of the eventual winners since 2008.

Wenger has pleaded with fans to remain united and support the team, perhaps unwisely citing the Spurs faithful as an example for Gunners supporters to ape. Even the most ardent Arsenal fan would've had their patience stretched by a feeble home defeat to Watford, followed by yet another surrender away from home against the leaders and champions-elect Chelsea.

At least the Opta stats make good reading ahead of Saturday lunchtime's clash with Hull City. Arsenal have won their last seven Premier League games against the Tigers, they haven't lost to the men from Humberside in 13 meetings, and they have won 15 of their last 17 Premier League home matches against newly-promoted opposition.

Speedy right-back Hector Bellerin is a doubt after picking up a head injury against Chelsea, but Mohamed Elneny should be available after AFCON duty with Egypt. Granit Xhaka is still suspended.

Hull City

Although it's only early days, new Hull City Marco Silva is having a good old go at exploding the "Premier League experience" myth. Pundits often talk of the necessity for players or managers to know the Premier League before they arrive. A lack of experience didn't seem to do Arsene Wenger much harm when he arrived at Highbury (nor Dennis Bergkamp, Patrick Vieira and Thierry Henry for that matter), and Antonio Conte seems to have got things sussed down at Chelsea.

Silva has done a terrific job so far. The Tigers have won every single home game since the former Estoril, Sporting and Olympiakos boss arrived, the most recent of which was a fully deserved 2-0 win over Liverpool. Against Jurgen Klopp's men, Hull were happy to cede possession, and were dangerous on the counter-attack. New signings Kamil Grosicki and Andrea Ranocchia shone - Grosicki showed his pace and intelligence out wide, while on-loan Inter defender Ranocchia was man of the match. If he can continue on this path rather than returning to the error-prone nervous wreck he became in Milan, Hull will have made a very smart acquisition.

Now that he has turned around Hull's home form, Silva must now find a way to get results on the road. Although a recent goalless draw at Manchester United was a fine result, the general picture is concerning. Hull have lost nine of their last ten games away from home, and they've failed to score in eight of those matches.

That said, Silva does have experience of leading a team to victory against Arsenal at the Emirates. He was in charge of the Olympiakos side that stunned the Gunners with a 3-2 victory in the group stage of the Champions League.

Striker Abel Hernandez and experienced defender Michael Dawson are both out, but on-loan Liverpool winger Lazar Markovic is back after missing the game against his parent club.

Match Odds

Despite Arsenal's slump and Hull City's revival, the Gunners are still pretty short at 1.31. I can see the logic in this. Hull are still in the bottom three, and despite their battling draw at Manchester United, their overall away record is the second-worst in the division.

Arsenal are having a major wobble, but with their title hopes realistically up in smoke, they might start to play with a bit more freedom. Wenger's side have won eight of their 12 home games in the league, and even though they face a good coach with a determined squad, Arsenal's extra quality should eventually shine through here. This could be a backlash after a damaging week.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Unders is the outsider here at 2.66, but if you wanted to make a case for that, it's worth considering the following. Hull haven't been scoring away from home all season, and five of their last eight Premier League away matches have featured fewer than three goals.

An unders bet on Arsenal is always a bit dangerous, as they have an attack that could catch fire in any given match, but they may start a little tentatively after recent defeats. Four of their last eight home games in the league have seen an unders bet land, and the recent 2-1 win against Burnley was 1-0 until a crazy finale. If it takes the Gunners a while to pick the lock, then you at least might have a good opportunity to cash out.

First Goalscorer

Alexis Sanchez seems to just love playing against Hull City. Opta tell us that in his three league games against them, he has five goals and one assist. He is trading at 4.20 to score the first goal.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.66