Serie A Betting: Non-stop Napoli to deliver goal rush again

Napoli v Genoa
Friday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 2

It may seem like an obvious route to go down, but a price is a price, and given the likelihood of goals in Friday night's Serie A game, I think we have to take a risk and hope for a more than lively start to the weekend.

After their 7-1 win at Bologna last weekend, Napoli will be keen to bring that form to the San Paolo: they were equally as threatening in their last home game against Palermo, but failed to finish their chances quite as adeptly, and were frustrated in a 1-1 draw.

They'll have to do without the influential Jose Maria Callejon against Genoa, but the likes of Emanuele Giaccherini have been waiting a long time for a chance to shine, and so I wouldn't worry too much about that.

I wrote about the propensity of Genoa games to have goals last week in a losing tip ahead of their match against Sassuolo, but it's worth remembering those stats: two of their last five games in all competitions have had Over 5.5 Goals, and two of the others have featured four and five goals.

Ivan Juric's team can be abject, as they were last week, but can also be involved in really entertaining matches, and I think that we're set for one on Friday, given the nature of the way that Napoli are playing at the moment.

I don't often tip Over 5.5 Goals, as it always feels a bit like a shot in the dark, but I do think that they're a little overpriced here, trading at around 8.20. We run the risk of being frustrated by a 3-2 or 4-1 scoreline, but this time it's a risk worth taking.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 5.5 Goals in Napoli v Genoa @ 8.20

Cagliari v Juventus
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Juve are starting to look frightening again: four consecutive Serie A wins, seven points clear, and in the mood to pull away. They travel to Sardinia this weekend to face a Cagliari side that they'll probably beat, but who may just cause them a problem or two.

The last Serie A goals that Juventus conceded were in the 2-1 defeat to Fiorentina at the start of January, and the market feels that they'll win to nil here. Cagliari, though, are a considerable attacking threat, and only once this season (in the 5-0 humbling by Napoli) have they failed to score in a home game.

I know that I applied a similar logic to Juve's trip to Sassuolo two weeks ago, and the bet came up annoyingly short, but I don't think that "Yes" in the Both Teams to Score market should be trading as the outsider.

Cagliari are a long way from perfection, as their position in the table suggests, but they can find a route to goal, and I expect them to get at least one against Juve. The Champions, of course, will more than likely to get two or three, and march on, but that needn't concern us.

Recommended Bet
Back "Yes" to Both Teams to Score in Cagliari v Juventus @ 2.04

Lazio v Milan
Monday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 3

I was sorely tempted to pick Sassuolo to beat Chievo at 1.99 as my third tip, but will focus instead on Milan's trip to Lazio. Lazio are flying after their 6-2 win against Pescara, and Milan will at least be relieved as they grabbed that victory in Bologna in midweek when down to nine men.

I still favour Lazio to win this, though, and win it fairly comfortably. I was hoping to see them available at a slightly bigger price, but the 1.86 which is there is perfectly fair.

Lazio are a little inconsistent, throwing in performances like the one that saw them lose at home against Chievo in their previous home game, but I trust them a lot more than I do Milan at the moment. It was one thing for Vincenzo Montella's team to keep Bologna out, quite another to stop free-scoring Lazio.

Alessio Romagnoli is likely to miss out through injury, joining Mattia De Sciglio, Luca Antonelli and Giacomo Bonaventura, while Gabriel Paletta and Juraj Kucka are suspended. Gerard Deulofeu has already made an impact on Serie A and is arguably their biggest danger man.

Milan have lost only three of their last 37 games against Lazio in Serie A, but all three of those were recent: and I firmly expect Lazio to have another to add to the column come Monday night.

Recommended Bet
Back Lazio to beat Milan @ 1.86