Leicester v Derby: No respite for Foxes in FA Cup

"It would take a brave man to put any money on Leicester at the moment, and an even braver one to back them at around even money."

Back Derby Draw no Bet @ 3.00 

Leicester v Derby
Wednesday February 8, 19:45 GMT
Live on BBC One/Betfair Live Video

Leicester

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse for the reigning Premier League champions, they were brushed aside by Manchester United, in front of their own fans. They are now dangerously close to the relegation zone, with just one point between themselves and Hull in 18th.

The Foxes are completely unrecognisable from the team that won the title last season and things aren't getting any better. The players look lacklustre in all areas of the pitch, as the attackers aren't scoring - or creating or chances - and the defence is being sliced open at will.

Claudio Ranieri's men have lost 3-0 in three of their last five outings, with the only non defeat being a 2-2 draw at Pride Park in the original match of this tie. They took the lead that day - thanks to a comedic own goal by Darren Bent - but they were 2-1 down at the break, and it took a late Wes Morgan goal to earn them this replay.

Derby

The Rams saw their promotion hopes suffer a slight setback at the weekend as they were beaten 1-0 at St James' Park. It isn't the worst result in the world, but the Championship is a hugely competitive division and any defeat is a blow.

I'd still back Steve McClaren's side to make the play-offs however as they been excellent since the former England manager returned to the East Midlands - even if a trio of recent losses have checked their momentum.

Tom Ince is this year's top scorer for Derby and he will prove a handful for whoever is marking him. Leicester's defence is lacking in pace and if he can get his final ball right, he could become the player that many expected him to be when he was at Liverpool.

Match Odds
Leicester 2.08 Derby 4.20 The Draw 3.50

It would take a brave man to put any money on Leicester at the moment, and an even braver one to back them at around even money. That price seems crazy to me as they'd struggle to beat a League Two club the way that they are playing.

Admittedly, some of their better performances this season have come in the cup competitions, but they haven't been as low as they are currently and the players are devoid of confidence.

That being said, Derby aren't Manchester United, Chelsea, Everton or even West Brom - the four victors at the KP this term - so I'm cautious about making out that they are a certainty.

After all, the Rams have won just six times on the road in the Championship this season, but then on the other hand, they did beat West Brom at the Hawthorns in the third round of this competition.

On reflection, I'm going to play it slightly safe and offer up the visitors as a healthy draw no bet option at 3.00. You lose just over a point if they win, but you get your money back if it's a draw after 90 minutes.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 2.24 Under 2.5 Goals 1.79

There were four goals in the original tie at Pride Park so some might think that over 2.5 is decent value at 2.24. I'm not overly convinced however as the opener was a freak own goal and that opened things up from an early stage as Derby needed to chase the game.

The hosts haven't look at all like scoring in their two most recent outings on this ground, and in the league they've fired five blanks in a row. I doubt that Derby will push up and allow Jamie Vardy any space in behind, so it's difficult to see Leicester being overly dangerous going forward.

Steve McClaren's team aren't huge scorers either and they have always been much better at the back than they have in attack. I can actually see this game staying goalless for quite a while and I quite fancy under 1.5 goals at a very generous 3.30.

Recommended Bets

Back Derby Draw no Bet @ 3.00
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.30