Bundesliga Betting: Wavering Wolves shouldn't be favourites

Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
Sunday February 12, 14:30
Live on BT Sport

The great Wolfsburg revival didn't last, and back-to-back defeats against Augsburg and Koln have plunged the Wolves back into relegation trouble. Despite a collection of exciting attacking talents like Mario Gomez, Paul-Georges Ntep and Yunus Malli, the Wolves have scored just one goal in their last three games, if you include the 1-0 midweek defeat at Bayern Munich in the German Cup.

Wolfsburg have netted just 17 goals in 19 league games, and there are problems elsewhere. Keeper and captain Diego Benaglio's form has nosedived. He gave away an awful goal in the 2-1 home defeat to Augsburg, and conceded a late match-winning penalty in Cologne last weekend. Also, I just don't think coach Valerien Ismael is up to the job at this early stage of his coaching career. There has been no discernible improvement since the experienced Dieter Hecking was jettisoned, and there doesn't seem to be a consistent plan.

Hoffenheim are the total opposite. 29-year-old coach Julian Nagelsmann is a genius (I declare now that I'm a card-carrying member of the fan club), and the Sinsheim club are still on course for their first ever European qualification. Hoffe destroyed Mainz 4-0 last week, and they have lost just one of their first 19 league games this term. Even though top scorer Sandro Wagner is still suspended, the likes of Mark Uth and Adam Szalai stepped up in his absence last week.

I can find no justification for making Wolfsburg favourites here. They have won two home matches all season, and are up against one of the most consistent sides in the league.

Recommended Bet
Back Hoffenheim Draw No Bet at 2.10

RB Leipzig v Hamburg
Saturday February 11, 14:30

RB Leipzig suffered only their third Bundesliga defeat of the season last weekend, but it wasn't just a narrow loss that stung. Some of their travelling supporters were subject to horrific abuse from some supposed Dortmund fans, who were protesting against Leipzig's Red Bull-backed rise up the German football ladder. BVB apologised, and have since been fined, although that was just for what went on inside Signal Iduna Park.

If I know Leipzig coach Ralph Hasenhuttl, he will use the injustice suffered by some of the club's fans to fire up his young squad. His cause is helped by the return from illness of top scorer Timo Werner, and the availability after suspension of superb playmaker Emil Forsberg.

Hamburg have had a great week. An emotional home win against Leverkusen (their third straight home win in the league) was followed by a superb 2-0 win against Koln in the German Cup. The recent arrival of centre-backs Mergim Mavraj and Kyriakos Papadopoulos has made a huge difference to HSV's defending, but I'm still not convinced about the team away from home. The relegation-threatened Redshorts have lost three on the spin on the road, and I think a motivated RBL will extend that sequence to four.

Recommended Bet
Back RB Leipzig -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.92

Werder Bremen v Borussia Monchengladbach
Saturday January 11, 14:30

Last Sunday we saw the good and the bad when it comes to Werder Bremen, and we saw why they are such a good team to follow in the Both Teams To Score market. The northerners are a threat going forwards, and scored twice at Augsburg. However, until Werder fix their perennially leaky defence (they have the worst record in the division, with 41 goals leaked in 19 games), they will continue to be in serious relegation danger. Alexander Nouri's men lost 3-2 in a game they should have at least taken a point from, and they are only out of the relegation playoff spot by virtue of goal difference.

Borussia Monchengladbach are pulling clear of the mire thanks to a post-Christmas surge. Former Wolfsburg and Nurnberg coach Dieter Hecking took up the reins after his predecessor Andre Schubert ran out of ideas and allies, and a hitherto underperforming team suddenly has its sparkle back. Seven points from three league games is a great return, and a 2-0 win at second-tier Greuther Furth in midweek set up a German Cup quarter-final visit to Hamburg.

Even though Gladbach's in-form skipper Lars Stindl is suspended, both teams have enough firepower to make this an entertaining encounter. Two of Hecking's three league games in charge have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land, and Werder have scored in 21 consecutive Bundesliga home matches. 16 of SVW's 19 Bundesliga outings have featured at least three goals, so that's the way we're heading again.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.74

Darmstadt v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday January 11, 14:30

All fairytales have an ending (even the Neverending Story), and Darmstadt's Bundesliga adventure looks to be reaching its final chapters. Last weekend's Hessen derby defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt summed up the Lilies' predicament. They will rarely be found wanting in terms of effort, but there simply isn't enough talent at new coach Torsten Frings' disposal. Darmstadt are bottom, with just nine points from 19 games, and they have taken just a solitary point from their last 11 matches.

A limited FC Koln attack secured a 6-1 win in Darmstadt's most recent home match, and I shudder to think what Borussia Dortmund could do to them. However, BVB coach Thomas Tuchel knows his side must start putting away chances, and must start playing with a bit more rhythm. At Mainz a fortnight ago they stopped playing after taking a 1-0 lead on three minutes, only to draw 1-1. Last week against RB Leipzig, they should've added to Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's goal, and only a linesman's flag (correctly raised) spared them from conceding a late leveller.

Even though Dortmund have a big Champions League trip to Benfica on the horizon, they have a strong enough squad to be able to field an impressive array of attacking players. A Dortmund win by two goals or more is odds-against, and I don't think it should be.

Recommended Bet
Back Borussia Dortmund -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at [2.13]