Liverpool v Tottenham: Back visitors to avoid defeat in Anfield showdown

Liverpool v Tottenham
Saturday, 17:30
Live on BT Sports 1

Liverpool

Four losses in their last five is pretty shocking stuff and the only thing more surprising than that is that the one match the Reds didn't lose was against the best side in the country. Oh yeah, they should have lost that one too; Chelsea missed a penalty late on.

That Liverpool were always going to concede goals this season was blatantly obvious. Ragnar Klavan and Joel Matip are new to the league, Dejan Lovren has good days and bad days and whereas James Milner has done remarkably well in his new position at left-back this season, it's a big ask for him to take on classy wingers running at him as well as being expected to support the attack. It wouldn't be the worst idea to play him somewhere in midfield and allow Javier Moreno (a natural left-back) to have a run in the side. As for the goalkeepers, the current question isn't who's better but rather: who's less likely to make a bad mistake?

The difference over the last month or so has been that the Liverpool goals have dried up. Yes, Sadio Mane was away for a few games but Philippe Coutinho has been available since mid-January after injury. Daniel Sturridge has also managed that most rare of feats for him and stayed fit for a considerable amount of time so all in all, no excuses.

Defeat here and Dietmar Hamann may have a few more people thinking he's talking sense when he said it made no sense to give Jurgen Klopp a six-year contract.

Tottenham

Tottenham's progress over the last few weeks has been very much a reflection of their own manager: unfussy, uncomplicated and determined.

Harry Kane made the headlines last time out after his goal was enough to beat a gutsy Middlesbrough side. 

Elsewhere, the restraint shown by Dele Alli in the face of completely unnecessary provocation from Boro keeper Victor Valdes shows how far he's come. He's not just a talented starlet anymore, he's a mature player perfectly aware of what his responsibilities are.

But the most consistent player of all over the past few weeks has been Mousa Dembele. You don't notice him that much because he rarely scores goals or does anything remarkable but he's one of those who you notice when he's not there; things just don't click as they normally do when he's absent.

But Tottenham still have injury problems ahead of this match, with key defenders Jan Vertonghen and Danny Rose both out with injury. It means Mauricio Pochettino is likely to stick to four at the back, having ditched 3-4-2-1 at half-time at the Etihad a few weeks' back.

Match Odds

On current form there's no way Liverpool should be 2.30. You really can't see them keeping a first clean sheet in six matches against this potent Spurs attack so if you're going to take that price your best hope is that it will be a wide open match which Liverpool somehow win 3-2 or something. Not for me.

A look at more long-term trends however suggest this is a fixture the Reds enjoy. Opta tell us they're unbeaten in it over their last eight and that only against Newcastle have they scored more Premier League goals. They add that Pochettino has never beaten them as Spurs manager (though he did as Southampton boss).

Still, the contrast in both teams' form means we simply have to take Liverpool on. But how?

Asian Handicap

The answer might be in the Asian Handicap market. Backing Tottenham 0 & +0.5 at 2.00 means you'd win at even money if they win and at odds of 1.50 if they draw. That looks the best option.

To Score

It's normal that Sadio Mane hasn't yet been at his best after returning from the African Cup of Nations but he's their key man here and reserve left-back Ben Davies knows he's in for a busy afternoon. Mane should be around 3.00, a similar price to Roberto Firmino and Philippe Coutinho though the Southampton man would be the selection if you were looking for a Liverpool scorer.

Alli let me down the last time I tipped him but he always seems to get at least a couple of chances a game so if you can get 4.00 on him, he should give you a good run for your money.

But the most likely scorer in the game is of course Kane. Opta tell us he's scored more goals in the Premier League in 2017 than anyone else bar Romelu Lukaku. They both have six. Kane will be around 2.60 to score here and I've seen far worse bets than that this week.

Penalty taken?

Take your pick from the numerous stats that suggest there may well be a penalty in the match. Opta point out that no side has scored more penalties against anyone in the Premier League than Liverpool's 12 against Tottenham. And no-one this season has scored more penalties than Milner, a perfect six from six. One of those was on August 27 against...Spurs.

Oh and Spurs did of course win their last match 1-0 thanks to a Kane goal scored from...the penalty spot. The 3.80 on offer is just too good to resist.

Ref Watch

Anthony Taylor is quickly becoming one of the league's most consistent referees. He averages just under four yellows a game but don't expect to see a red here. He's only dished out three in 27 matches and two of them were in Man City v Chelsea, where Fernandinho and Sergio Aguero's actions really gave him no choice.

Recommended Bets

1.5 points Back Tottenham 0 & +0.5 on Asian Handicap market @ 2.00
0.5pts Back 'yes' on penalty taken @ 3.80