Saturday 17:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Atletico 1.45 Athletic 9.60 draw 4.70
If Barcelona win at bottom-of-the-table Cordoba in Saturday's 15:00 game, third-placed Atletico Madrid's title chances will be next to zero: they'll be 12 points behind with just 12 points still available to them.
Diego Simeone will want to maintain the six-point gap to Valencia and Sevilla because third means you avoid a Champions League playoff and fourth means you walk right into one.
So we're expecting a full-strength Atletico at full intensity, which means we're expecting them to win and - partly because Athletic are still missing some important attackers (Muniain, Ibai Gomez) - to keep a clean sheet.
Even at full strength, eighth-placed Athletic have scored fewer goals than anyone else in the top 12. On the road, their record of 11 strikes in 17 matches is worse than anyone's outside the bottom four. Thirteen of those 17 games produced Under 2.5 Goals in total.
Home and away, Atletico Madrid have kept clean sheets in 8/11, conceding just two goals in their last eight at the Vicente Calderon, where they have also won 10 in a row against teams from outside the top six.
Five of Atletico's 17 previous home games have finished 2-0 and that's exactly the sort of scoreline we're looking for this weekend.
Recommended Bet
Back Atletico Madrid / Under 2.5 Goals @ 3.40
Sevilla v Real Madrid
Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Sevilla 3.65 Real 2.08 draw 3.95
No question this is the game of the weekend.
Real Madrid must win to keep the pressure up on Barcelona, who still have a trip to Atletico to negiotiate.
However, Champions League-chasing Sevilla are unbeaten in 25 at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan (W18-D7-L0).
Since Unai Emery took over, they are an even W1-D1-L1 hosting the Big Two, winning this fixture 2-1 last term.
Under Carlo Ancelotti, Real are W1-D3-L5 on their travels to last season's top-six finishers and this season's current top six.
This weekend, he is without Luka Modric, Karim Benzema and perhaps Gareth Bale.
We'd take Sevilla to win, if only they hadn't drawn each of their three home games with the rest of this season's top four. So we'll give them a little boost on the Asian Handicap instead.
Also of note: in the Emery era, both teams have scored in all nine of Sevilla's meetings - at home and away - with one of the Big Two. Six of the nine produced Over 3.5 Goals.
Both teams have also scored on 7/9 of Ancelotti's trips to top sixers, but that bet is prohibitively short for our portfolio.
Recommended Bet
Back Sevilla +0.5 on the Asian Handicap @ 1.96
Valencia v Eibar
Sunday 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Valencia 1.24 Eibar 18.00 draw 6.80
Valencia have won 10/10 at home teams now 10th and below. Against all-comers they've kept six straight clean sheets at the Mestalla.
Eibar have scored once in seven away games, avoiding defeat only on a trip to second-bottom Granada.
We'd take the Valencia Win to Nil, but it'll most likely be odds-on, even at kick-off.
With Eibar having conceded notably fewer away goals than anyone else outside the top eight, we'll take the much longer price about the Valencia / Under 2.5 Goals double, which pays out if the home side win either 1-0 or 2-0.
Recommended Bet
Back Valencia / Under 2.5 Goals @ 3.50
Malaga v Elche
Sunday 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Malaga 1.62 Elche 6.20 draw 4.10
Seventh-placed Malaga are on a winless streak of seven, drawing their last three at La Rosaleda with opposition ranging from third-top Atletico Madrid to third-bottom Deportivo La Coruna.
Elche have recently won 3/4 home and away to lift themselves clear of the drop zone.
Remove their results against the runaway top five and Elche are W4-D4-L3 on the road this season, only once losing by more than a single goal.
Malaga, who have only won 2/17 by more than the odd goal this season, look too short in the outright market.
Recommended Bet
Back Elche +1.0 on the Asian Handicap @ 1.82
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