Stoke v Man City: Potters offer value as leaders travel to Britannia

Stoke v Man City
Saturday December 5, 12:45 KO
Live on BT Sport 1

Stoke

I'm finding it difficult to place exactly where Stoke are at right now, or indeed where they are going under Mark Hughes. It's become fashionable to say that they've improved since Tony Pulis was replaced, and perhaps they have, at least aesthetically. But they still remaininconsistent and nothing more than a comfortable mid-table side.

On the flip side, perhaps there is no shame in being a mid-table club playing out the season comfortably clear of the relegation zone throughout. Throw in the occasional cup run - case in point being this season's Capital One Cup - and you're the envy of 90% of football league clubs in the country.

I guess my point is that I don't see any reason to wax lyrical about what Hughes has done at the Britannia since joining the club. For me they're still in a very similar position to what they were before Pulis was harshly ushered out of the door.

The Potters come into this game on the back of a 2-0 win against Sheffield Wednesday in midweek, but were previously beaten 2-0 by Sunderland at the Stadium Of Light following a pair of 1-0 wins against Chelsea and Southampton.

Manchester City

City also booked their place in the Capital One Cup semi-finals in midweek after they beat Hull 4-1 at the Etihad. That result made it back-to-back victories for the Citizens following a run of three games without a win, having moved back to the top of the Premier League table with three points against Southampton at the weekend.

Similarly to Stoke, I'm not quite sure how to take Manchester City right now. One week they can look world-beaters, then the next paupers. For me, the defeat to Liverpool a few weeks ago really exposed Manuel Pellegrini's weaknesses as a manager. I find that when he comes up against a side that know how to counteract City then he doesn't have a plan B, and he often simply relies on his big players to put in big performances. Poor Champions League results being another case in point.

City also come into this game having only kept two clean sheets in their last 15 matches and with only one win on their last seven Premier League visits to the Britannia.

Match Odds

This is a difficult one for me, because at the prices I can see how either side could be considered a value bet. If City get it right and play as they can then they could well win this one comfortably and make odds of 1.70 about the league leaders look particularly generous.

But then Stoke are also more than capable of beating City on their day and if everything clicks for them and the visitors aren't up to task then 6.00 about a home win could look huge.

In conclusion though, I'd much rather take a bet that I am unsure about at odds of 6.00 than I would one at odds of 1.70. Therefore I'm sticking my neck on the line and going for a home win here.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

By contrast, picking out a bet on the goals market doesn't require too much deliberation. Stoke have scored fewer goals than every other team in the Premier League, while no team outside the top six has conceded fewer.

Each of the Potters' last nine matches have had two goals or less, and 15 of their 18 matches in all competitions this season have failed to breach the 2.5 goal barrier.

In addition, four of the last five head-to-heads have also had Under 2.5 goals. And so it is with little hesitation that I suggest a bet on Under 2.5 Goals here at odds of 2.10.

Recommended Bets

1pt Back Stoke to win @ 6.00
3pts Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.10