Bolton v Brentford: Unders the best Monday night bet

Bolton v Brentford
Monday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Bolton

Poor Wanderers sit rock-bottom of the table with just one win from 17 games and Neil Lennon's hands seemingly tied in the transfer market until the club is sold to new owners and their debt (believed to anywhere between £100m and £200m) written off by benefactor Eddie Davies.

Their home form is actually not quite as terrible as you might think with one win, six draws and just the single defeat from those eight fixtures at the Macron Stadium.

Where they have come up short is easy to see though - 11 goals from those 17 matches is the lowest in the division and Lennon's attacking options consist of limited trier Gary Madine, veteran Emile Heskey and Shola Ameobi who is nearly as old as the former England man. Withno money available even for loan signings until new owners come in Lennon has to try and conjure what he can from his current squad.

Brentford

The Bees have managerial uncertainty of their own but it doesn't seem to have affected performances on the pitch with a home defeat to high flying Hull the only blemish on their record in the last seven games.

Lee Carsley said that last week's 2-1 win against Nottingham Forest was his last in charge but with nobody appointed yet he seems likely to be picking the side again here. Swansea assistant Pep Clotet had been hotly linked with the job but it now appears Walsall boss Dean Smith is right in the frame.

That impressive recent run has included wins at Charlton and Wolves as well as a draw at Blackburn to move them back up into the top half of the table. Defender Harlee Dean will sit this one out as he serves a three-match ban for his dismissal against Forest and it's unlikely either Josh McEachran or Jota will be full fit in time to make the squad as the Bees look for a win which would move them to within a point of the play-off spots.

Match Odds

Wanderers can be backed at 2.78 to earn just a second win of the season with the visitors judged slight favourites by the market at 2.72, with the draw available to back at 3.55. As the market indicates, this does look a tricky game to call with the home side probably a bit betterthan their bare form suggest - particularly on their patch - and due a slice of luck from somewhere. But the Bees do look like a team on an upward curve.

In fact, the Londoners' away form also looks more impressive than their results read, if you consider the three defeats came at Derby, Middlesbrough and Burnley (all in the top five) and they've not lost any of their other five trips. If pushed I'd probably plump for yet another draw at the Macron, unoriginal as that may be, but in this game I think it'll pay to look elsewhere for some better value.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

This is also a coin-flip according to the market with overs priced at 1.95 and unders 1.97 but I do think that there is some value about backing under 2.5 goals.

Wanderers aren't the worst team in the division in two-thirds of the pitch - it's just when they get towards their opponents' goal that the problems begin. Lennon's men have only conceded twice in their last three home games and they have kept clean sheets against the likes of Sheffield Wednesday and Derby this season.

What we do know is that they are going to struggle to score more than once in a game and that keeping it very tight at the back represents their best chance of getting anything from the game and closing the four-point gap that has opened up to 23rd-placed Rotherham. Of Wanderers' eight home games, six have gone under the line and backing this to be the seventh looks the best bet to me in this one.

Recommended Bet
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.97