Reading v QPR: Hoops the value to step up play-off push

Reading v QPR
Thursday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Reading

A disappointing 3-1 defeat at Nottingham Forest last week despite taking an early lead illustrated the Royals inconsistency and once again the topsy-turvy nature of the second tier. Manager Steve Clarke, who turned down an approach by Fulham to move to Craven Cottage, knows his side have a good record at home this season though, with their only loss coming at the hands of high-flying Derby.

Despite some disquiet among fans at their recent form and tactics, as well as Clarke's willingness to consider leaving the Madejski Stadium, they are currently just a point off sixth-place and if they can start picking up some points on their travels, should be right in the midst of the battle for play-off places in the New Year. Skipper Paul McShane, who picked up a nasty facial injury at Forest, and Gareth McCleary, who missed the trip with a hamstring problem, are both likely to miss out here.

QPR

Charlie Austin came off the bench to score with his first touch at home to Leeds on Saturday and earn Rangers a first win in five games and a first for interim manager Neil Warnock. Victory keeps them within touching distance of the play-off spots (they are just five points off sixth-placed Birmingham) and a good run during the busy festive period will have them right back in the mix.

Austin's fitness will be key to that with the latest indications that, despite likely interest from Aston Villa and others in January, he is happy to stay at Loftus Road until he becomes a free agent at the end of the season. The other factor will be the Hoops' away form - they have won just two and lost six times in their nine games on the road this season.

Match Odds

The Royals home form means they aren't much better than evens here at 2.14 with Rangers3.85 if you think they can get a first away win since the end of August, while the draw's available at 3.50.

Although these prices are probably about right it's the visitors that I'm interested in. Influential but injury-plagued midfielder Alejandro Faurlin was Man of the Match in the win over Leeds and having been eased back to full fitness, if he and Austin can both start regularly Warnock's side have the ability to match any side in this division.

There's a suspicion that Reading's recent results have flattered them a bit - wins by a single goal over struggling Charlton and Bolton and a lucky 2-2 draw against Huddersfield making up three of their last four games at the Madejski. In that period they've also been beaten at Fulham, Cardiff and Forest - hardly the division's shining lights.

Warnock knows exactly what you need to do to get results at this level and I'd like his men onside here - the 2.82 available in the draw no bet market catches my eye and that's the first recommended bet.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Unders is 1.71 and overs 2.30 with the market reflecting the fact QPR have tightened up considerably at the back after they had the worst defensive record in the division by mid-October. Each of their last five games has actually featured under 1.5 goals and Austin's winner over Leeds was their first goal for four and a half matches.

Warnock has said that he doesn't think there are too many goals in Rangers' side - slightly surprising when you look at the talent he has at his disposal - and is therefore setting them up to give nothing away and hope to nick something or rely on his star striker's quality in the opposition's penalty-box.

That might change a little following Saturday's much improved performance and the Royals do have goals in their side with Nick Blackman on nine for the season so it looks a market to give a swerve on this occasion.

To Score

Backing Andre Gray and Daryl Murphy in this market over at the Sportsbook has paid dividends in recent weeks and I'm going for the hat-trick with Austin. Now back to full fitness it's hard to argue with the assertion that he is a Premier League striker playing in the second tier.

Only a great save from Leeds keeper Marco Silvestri denied him a double and the former Burnley man has netted eight times in 13 appearances (11 starts) this season, which makes the 3.10 available about him getting on the scoresheet here look good value.

Recommended Bets

Back QPR draw no bet @ 2.82