Burnley 2.90 v Crystal Palace 2.78; The Draw 3.30 Saturday 2 March, 15:00
Clarets come up short
Burnley's fine run of form came to an end in midweek when they lost 2-0 at Newcastle.
The defeat brought an end to an eight game unbeaten run in the Premier League that had seen Burnley distance themselves from the relegation zone (W5 D3). Given this improvement, it was a surprise to see Burnley surrender so meekly to Newcastle, in a match in which Sean Dyche's team struggled to create chances.
Having hit a high with their 2-1 win over Spurs last weekend, Burnley were brought back down to earth against the Magpies. Their direct, robust style had little effect against a Newcastle side adept at sitting back and defending. The danger going into this game is that Crystal Palace have similar strengths to Newcastle, when it comes to being tough to break down.
Ashley Westwood was missing for the trip to St James' Park through illness, but could return at the weekend. Definitely out are Steven Defour, Aaron Lennon and Jonathan Walters.
Unpolished Palace need a trip to finishing school
Crystal Palace are another team that saw a positive run halted in midweek, with the Eagles being beaten 3-1 at home to Manchester United.
Palace had previously been unbeaten in six (W4 D2). To lose to an in-form Manchester United side is hardly a disgrace, but with the visitors suffering with something of an injury crisis, Palace would have hoped to have won at least a point at home.
Roy Hodgson's side created chances in that match, only to once again see their opponents' superior finishing prove to be the difference. With opportunities likely to be rare against Burnley's disciplined defence, Palace will need to be more clinical if they are to return to winning ways.
The injured Mamadou Sakho was a big loss for Palace against Manchester United and the French central defender may well be missing again. Definitely out are Pape Souare, Julian Speroni and Aaron Wan-Bissaka.
Visitors unworthy favourites
Crystal Palace are the 2.80favourites, just ahead of Burnley at 2.90 and the draw at 3.30.
It's curious to see Palace at the shorter price, given Burnley's home advantage. The Clarets have not lost at Turf Moor in five matches (W4 D1).
Palace have been strong on the road over the same period, but their recent successes have mainly come against sides that were expected to win and took the game to them. There is a suspicion that Burnley and Palace will cancel each other out and as the outsider, there is appeal in the draw.
Slow starters don't like the first-half
A low scoring match seems likely, with under 2.5 goals the justified favourite at 1.76, ahead of overs at 2.20.
Burnley have only scored one first-half goal in their last seven outings. The 0-0 half-time score is 2.76, while under 1.5 goals is worth considering at 3.30.
Corner kings Palace should win out
One area in which Crystal Palace are justified favourites is in the corner match betting, though their price is perhaps a little more generous than it might be.
Palace are 1.95 to record the most corners, with Burnley at 2.20 and the draw at 7.00. On average, only three teams in the Premier League typically enjoy more corners in a match than Crystal Palace, while Burnley not only rank bottom, but also concede more corners on average than any other team.
Back Burnley and Crystal Palace to be 0-0 at half-time at 2.76
Back Crystal Palace to win corner match bet against Burnley at 1.95