Chelsea v Tottenham: Spurs to bounce back at the Bridge

Chelsea v Tottenham
Wednesday February 27, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Sarri's last stand?

So where do we start with Chelsea? They actually acquitted themselves well for approximately 118 minutes in the EFL Cup Final on Sunday, showing great heart to hold Manchester City to a goalless draw, following their 6-0 beating just two weeks prior.

The Kepa incident then occurred, and Maurizio Sarri's management was undermined on the most public of stages. There has been plenty of backtracking since, and it was announced yesterday that the young goalkeeper had apologised and been fined one week's wages, but all cannot be right in the Chelsea camp.

The atmosphere inside Stamford Bridge could quite easily turn toxic on Wednesday, and we have to remember that this is a Chelsea side who have lost three of their last four in the Premier League, and have now dropped to sixth place - albeit with a game in hand.

It will be interesting to see what starting XI, Sarri puts out against Spurs, but I expect Gonzalo Higuain to return to the team, with Eden Hazard shifting out wide. The curveball would be Kepa being dropped to the bench, but when the alternative is Caballero, the manager is kind of between a rock and a hard place.

Spurs still in the title race - but only just

Tottenham had their own struggles at the weekend, as after riding a wave of momentum into their fixture at Turf Moor, they went and lost it. Liverpool's draw at Old Trafford means that they only fell one point behind the leaders, but with Manchester City stepping on the gas, you felt it was a must win game for Spurs.

That being said, Mauricio Pochettino's men have been written off before this season before bouncing back, as they are still in third place, despite having lost seven Premier League games this term.

Harry Kane was back in the squad for the Burnley match, and he signalled his well-being by coming off the bench to score, so I would imagine that he will start the game against Chelsea, even if he isn't able to finish it. Dele Alli remains out, but other than him, Spurs have all of their first-teamers back.

All the value on the away win

This has to go down as an away win for me, especially at the prices. The visitors are a hugely tempting 3.40 to take the three points at the Bridge, and that's something that they have achieved in 11 of their 14 away games this season.

I appreciate that their record on this ground is pretty abysmal, but they won here last year, and there wouldn't be much of a better time to face the Blues than now.

I also like the fact that Tottenham haven't drawn any matches in the league this season. It's quite astonishing really, and their run of 31 games without a draw (since the back end of the last campaign) is a Premier League record. It's also a positive that most of the games that appeared to be heading for a draw, were avoided by Spurs goals, as opposed to their opponents taking the three points.

The draw is trading at around the 3.50 mark if you think that they will have their first of the campaign, but I'd much rather back the away win at basically the same price. I also wouldn't go anywhere near the ridiculous 2.34 for the home win.

Goals will be tough to call

The Goal Markets are quite tight, with no strong favourite emerging in the Over/Under 2.5. The Over is a marginal favourite at 1.90, while the Under is 2.08.

I don't particularly have much of an opinion here, so I will just lay out the stats. Chelsea ended a run of five straight home games to go Under 2.5 in their 2-1 victory over Newcastle, and they followed that up with a 5-0 thrashing of Huddersfield. After struggling to keep clean sheets in front of their own fans early on, they have since kept five in their last seven - but they only faced one top six team during that period.

Spurs meanwhile have seen their last four away from Wembley end with three goals or more, and they are yet to fail to score on their travels this year. In total, 10 of their 14 on the road have seen Over 2.5 backers collect, and they are the top scorers away from home in the league - four clear of Man City, albeit having played a game more.

If I was pushed, I would lean towards Overs, as I don't think that a draw does either side much good. However I would much rather back a Correct Score of 1-2 at odds of 12.50 though.

Same Game Multi

My Same Game Multi on the Betfair Sportsbook is a very simple one - Tottenham to win and Harry Kane to score. It is coming in at odds of [9.91] and you get the feeling that the England captain is going to make up for lost time in his pursuit of the Golden Boot. 

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Tottenham @ 3.40

Back Tottenham to win 2-1 @ 12.50