Porto v Benfica: Visitors can slay the Dragon

Porto v Benfica 
Saturday March 2, 20:30

Porto should have been more comfortable

The good news is that they're top of the table, one point clear of Benfica and they know that avoiding defeat here will mean they're in the driving seat till the end of the season given how rarely they and Benfica drop points against...anyone.

The bad news is that the Dragons should probably be further clear of Benfica than that. They got back-to-back draws on the road in early February, against Guimaraes and Moreirense, two games from which they would have expected to have got an absolute minimum of four points from.

They only have one injury to contend with but it's a big one. Vincent Aboubakar, the giant Cameroon striker has been out for a while. It's fortunate for Sergio Conceicao that everyone else is available because after this one on Saturday night, there's Roma in the Champions League on Wednesday night. A tie where they're 2-1 down after the first leg.

Born-again Benfica looking dangerous

The revival of Benfica under Bruno Lage is a similar sort of story to that which happened at Manchester United under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

A little tweak here, a small change in personnel there and all of a sudden the side looks unrecognisable to the one from the start of the season under Rui Vitoria.

The results are pretty different as well. The only two matches they haven't won since he arrived were a slightly unfortunate 1-3 defeat at home to Porto in the League Cup and a 0-0 draw at home with Galatasaray where they didn't need to win anyway.

Look out for Joao Felix. The teenage forward has bene outstanding and you'll be hearing plenty more about him in the future, both as a player for Portugal and as a star attraction at one of Europe's biggest clubs. This kid is special.

Value with the visitors

Had this been a few months ago, the 23/20 about Porto would have been a pretty good price. But it's Benfica who are actually in the best form over the last month or so and perhaps even more crucially, it's the Lisbon side who are playing the better football.

Defending in numbers, attacking at pace, slick passing, men galloping forward to get onto the end of deliveries, you name it.

And Benfica's recent record at the Dragao is good. Their last four league matches there have yielded two draws, a home win and a Benfica win.

There will be plenty of takers of the draw at 11/5. As we've discussed in plenty of other previews of matches involving the Big Three, teams are often very content to walk away with a point even when at home rather than risk losing the match ad being subject of widespread criticism.

But it's arguably Benfica who are the value at 23/10. They'll have to be ambitious here and at least try to win the game because it's Porto who have the easier fixtures from here till the finish. Still, the draw is and always be a lively runner in this fixture so Benfica on the Draw/No Bet market is probably the way forward at 7/5.

Unders a justified favourite

Whether you're going to go 'overs' or 'unders' depends on which stats you give most importance to.

If it's the head-to-head at that you think is more important, you'll be in the 'unders' camp at 13/20. The last 10 between these two in all competitions saw eight matches staying under three goals.

But if you'd rather look at how many goals there have been in Porto games this season, you might be tempted to think again. The figure stands at 63% of home games that have gone 'overs' including four of their last five. It's 11/10 on overs here.

Benfica's stats away from home also point to a low-scoring affair with just 41% of them this season going over 2.5 goals.

So unders is the far more likely outcome but that's nothing that the odds aren't telling you already.

A good SGM

Combining the two major conclusions ahead of this match in a same-game multi could prove to be a good move. Going with Benfica/Draw on the Double Chance market (8/13) and under 2.5 goals (13/20) comes to odds of 2.48.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Benfica on the Draw/No Bet market @ 7/5 

Back Benfica on the Double Chance market (8/13) + under 2.5 goals (13/20) @ 2.48