Newcastle v Burnley: Maturing Clarets offer value

Newcastle v Burnley
Tuesday, 20:00
BT Sport 1

It's been a great few weeks for these two clubs, both of whom have pulled away from the relegation zone with a run of fine form.

The job is far from done yet - Burnley sit six points above the danger line and Newcastlefour - but both now look on track to achieve their survival aim, something which wasn't the case at the turn of the year.

Newcastle's home form had been the worst in the league at one stage, although they've now won their last three at St James' Park. While wins over Cardiff and 10-man Huddersfield should not be over-celebrated, victory against champions Manchester City has helped give them some much-needed belief.

So too will the record signing of Miguel Almiron during the transfer window - the Paraguayan made an impressive debut at the weekend. More on him later.

Almiron has been signed to cure Newcastle's goal-shyness - only Huddersfield have scored fewer than the Magpies - but defensively they have also managed an improvement with only three conceded in their last five games.

Burnley buzzing

If Newcastle are on a roll, then Burnley are really flying. Saturday's 2-1 victory over title contenders Spurs made it eight games unbeaten for Sean Dyche's men, five of which have been won.

Over that eight-game period, only the two Manchester clubs have won more points.

Flimsy away earlier in the season, the Clarets have won at drop rivals Brighton and Huddersfield and claimed creditable points at both Watford and Manchester United - the latter was a game they should also have won.

The return of Tom Heaton in goal seems to have made a real difference. He's shown the form that got him into the England squad and that appears to have given those in front of him real confidence.

James Tarkowski and Ben Mee are recognisable again as the pair who did so well last season, while up front Dyche has finally found a partnership to work for him with Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes both excellent against Tottenham.

Tasty Clarets

Of the teams below them, Burnley have only lost on the road to Fulham (right back at the start of the campaign when the Londoners still had a bit of confidence) and I don't think they should be as big at 4.00 to win the game. That looks worth backing.

With their lack of goal power, Newcastle - 2.14 for victory - may well struggle to break down a Burnley side who look a lot more organised than they did a few months back.

The draw - the result in three of the five Premier League meetings between the sides - is a 3.40 shot.

Stats suggest overs value

On the goals lines, over 2.5 can be backed at 2.40, a price which is worth a second look once you know that 57% of Newcastle's home games have featured three or more - the same ratio as Burnley's away games.

The unders side of the bet is offered at 1.68.

However, I'm expecting this to be a fairly tight affair with Burnley likely to utilise their new-found defensive strength as they try to keep a happier home crowd quiet.

Newcastle may have had those recent home wins but I remain unconvinced by their creativity against better opposition - their win against Man City hardly saw them churning out regular chances - and I can see them foundering on the defensive rock of Burnley.

Expect quiet start

The bet which tempts me in is the 8/5 on offer about the game being goalless at half time (under 0.5 first-half goals).

That's been the case in exactly half (7 of 14) of Burnley's away games this season, which is pretty remarkable when you consider how poor they were defensively earlier in the campaign.

Newcastle have reached the break 0-0 in 12 of their 27 league games - six of 14 at home.

Most recently, four of Burnley's last five games have been goalless at the interval, as have Newcastle's last three.

While I'm keen on Burnley to edge this one and a lack of early goals, there's one price in the goalscorer markets which looks wrong and should interest anyone thinking of backing Newcastle.

The aforementioned Almiron immediately caught the eye against Huddersfield, his pace and trickery getting him into more central positions despite nominally starting on the left of the attack. He had three shots on target while his other effort on goal hit the post.

While Burnley look sure to provide him with a stiffer test, the forward shouldn't be 9/1 to open the scoring when you consider he's playing for the home team, who are close to even-money favourites. Salomon Rondon is just 7/2 in the same market.

Same Game Multi

The five Premier League games between these two have seen two 'positive results' and on both occasions the margin of victory was a single goal. It's easy to see something similar occurring here and given I've made the case for an away win, I'll take Burnley to win by a single goal.

Adding that to a goalless first half produces a 15.14 double.

RECOMMENDED BETS

1.5pts Under 0.5 goals in first half @ 8/5

1pt Burnley to win @ 4.0