Brentford v Burnley: Dyche's men can cap off great week

Brentford v Burnley
Friday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Brentford

The Bees have been in decent but not spectacular form in recent weeks with the 1-0 defeat at the hands of Middlesbrough in midweek meaning they have won three, drawn two and lost four under new manager Dean Smith. He felt they were unlucky against the leaders, having matched them for much of the game but Smith's side were also beaten at home by his old team Walsall, 1-0 in the FA Cup last Saturday, making it three home games in a row without a goal - something of a concern.

The Londoners have six wins from 13 home games this season but the key fact is that all of those victories came against sides below them in the table - they have been beaten at Griffin Park by Boro, Hull, Sheff Weds and Birmingham. Prior to Tuesday's defeat their last home game was a goalless draw with out-of-form Brighton. Centre-back James Tarkowski, who hails from the North-West, was the subject of bid from their opponents here last week but is set to play.

Burnley

After a fairly poor recent run - only comfortable home wins over the likes of Bristol City and Charlton had kept them in fourth place in the table - Sean Dyche's men have hinted at better things to come with two contrasting wins in four days. A slightly unexpected 2-1 win at the Riverside in the FA Cup last Saturday was followed by an emphatic 5-0 thrashing of MK Dons on Tuesday night to give the Clarets a first away win in six league games.

Admittedly they had been on a tough run of fixtures at Boro, Hull, QPR, Cardiff and Wolves but failure to record a single win in any of those matches had seen them slip 10 points behind Boro with second-placed Hull now looking a more realistic target to chase, sitting five points ahead.

Match Odds

The home side are favourites at 2.52 with Burnley available to back at 3.15 and the draw a3.40 poke. I'm slightly surprised that a home win is seen as the most likely outcome by the market here for two reasons - we've noted above that they have not beaten a top-half side on their own patch this season and the visitors do seem to have overcome a bit of a sticky patch, particularly on the road, with those two wins in the past week.

I'd have all three results equally likely to occur here - it really is a tough match to call so there are opportunities to back Burnley in the draw no bet market at 2.28 or consider getting the draw/away outcome onside at 1.60 as a double chance selection.

The only question mark against Dyche's men could be whether they can sustain their high-tempo pressing game for a second game in four days (and third in seven) but with the likes of George Boyd and Rouwen Hennings on the bench in midweek they do have options to freshen things up.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Unders is fancied by the market at 1.79 with overs available to back at 2.16 and that looks about right, making it difficult to find a strong angle here. Burnley may have put 13 goals past the hapless trio of MK Dons, Bristol City and Charlton in recent weeks but they were held togoalless draws by the likes of Ipswich, Wolves and QPR.

Meanwhile, although things have dried up for the Bees in front of goal since Christmas they were scoring quite freely before then meaning we could see a few goals here if they do rediscover their shooting boots. With that in mind, I'm giving this market a swerve and going over to the Sportsbook for my second bet.

To Score

Andre Gray returns to Griffin Park for the first time since his big money move north at the start of the season and ever in these cases will doubtless be keen to show his former employers just what they are missing. Strikers do seem to have a real habit of scoring against their old clubs and the 24-year-old now has 16 goals to his name this season after netting in midweek, including five in his last five matches.

He also is the Clarets regular penalty-taker and although the vast majority of his gaols have come at Turf Moor, confidence will be high among his team-mates after those performances at Boro and MK Dons and they can provide him with the ammunition to find the net again here at the 2.80 available with the Sportsbook.

Recommended Bets
Back Burnley draw no bet at 2.28