Liverpool v Arsenal: Gunners ready to showcase title credentials

Liverpool v Arsenal
Wednesday January 13, 20:00
Live on BT Sport

Liverpool

We shouldn't read too much into Friday's lacklustre draw with Exeter, with Jurgen Klopp making sweeping changes to his starting XI. But the Reds' growing list of injuries is becoming a major problem and it's now getting to the point where they may need to start fielding players that aren't quite 100% fit.

It's been almost two months and seven games since Liverpool last impressed in the Premier League, with defeats to West Ham and Newcastle, a draw with West Brom and some uninspiring wins against Leicester and Sunderland coming in the period since they dismantled Manchester City.

The goalkeeper situation at Anfield is also disconcerting with Klopp clearly not a fan of Simon Mignolet and Adam Bogdan a long way from being an able deputy. As a result Danny Ward has been recalled from his loan spell with Aberdeen, where he has performed well and had become a fans favourite, but it would be a big call to throw him straight into a game such as this.

Arsenal

It's a sign of just how confident and positive Arsenal are feeling right now that Arsene Wengeropted not to dramatically alter his starting XI for the FA Cup game against Sunderland at the weekend. And we also saw another glimpse of their mettle in that game as they came back from 1-0 down to win comfortably.

The victory made it seven wins from eight since the start of December, at a time of the season when the Gunners have occasionally lost ground on their title rivals in the past.

Olivier Giroud ended a three-game barren spell with a goal on Saturday and now has seven in his last eight outings and 18 for the season in all competitions. At the other end Petr Cech continues to impress and has now kept four clean sheets in his last seven appearances.

Match Odds

More through necessity than design, Arsene Wenger has become a master of managing squads depleted by injuries and navigating his way through English football's hectic winter schedule. Perhaps it is not entirely by chance that Jurgen Klopp is struggling to do so in the embryonic stages of his career in English football management, and that could be one the defining factors in both Liverpool's season and this particular match.

A fully-fit Liverpool team playing the way that they were back in November might well have carried my money in this one, but having watched the Reds over the past few months and considering the long list of players unavailable, Arsenal are the only bet to be had here at a generous 2.50.

I'm beginning to believe that this will be Arsenal's year, and this is the sort of game where they can rubber stamp their credentials.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The meeting at the Emirates earlier this season finished goalless, but in general these games have produced goals, with each of the previous four having three or more.

Liverpool's lack of attacking options is a major issue though and it's tough to see them getting too many opportunities against this impressive Arsenal defence. So if you want to back Over 2.5 here then you have to believe that the Gunners will get the bulk of them.

For my money, the sensible bet is to take some of the 2.04 about Under 2.5 Goals and look at the meeting at the Emirates in August as more of a sign of where these teams are now at, rather than an anomaly to the goalfests they have served up in the past.

First Half Goals 0.5

Without being too contradictory to our stance on the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market, I think we can afford a play on the Over 0.5 selection in this market at a 1.48 that represents huge value.

Only one of Arsenal's last 13 matches have been goalless at half-time and just two of Liverpool's last seven have been 0-0 after 45 minutes. The Liverpool stat is maybe not too convincing, but to get odds of 1.48 on something that has happened in 12 of Arsenal's last 13 matches looks outstanding value to me.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Arsenal to win @ 2.50
1pt Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.04
2pts Back Over 0.5 1st Half Goals @ 1.48