Burnley v Chelsea: Conte's side to maintain title charge with narrow win

Burnley 9.40 v Chelsea 1.44; The Draw 5.00
Sunday, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Burnley

It has been a remarkable season for Sean Dyche's side at Turf Moor where they have built a superb record. Burnley have accumulated the third most points at home and come into this match bidding to win their sixth successive league match at the ground. Their home form has taken them a long way towards maintaining their Premier League status with the team nine points clear of the relegation zone.

But while their home record has been outstanding it has been a totally different story on the road. The Clarets have picked up just one point from 11 away matches this season. Their performances have been improving, with the team showing plenty of character down to ten men in the 2-1 loss at Watford last week, but results have remained elusive.

Chelsea

What more can you say about Chelsea? Antonio Conte's side are seemingly on an unassailable run towards reclaiming the title. The Blues have been outstanding since changing their system following the 3-0 defeat at Arsenal back in September, putting together a stunning run of 13 consecutive league victories from October to December to establish a commanding nine-point lead with 14 matches remaining.

There are no weak links in the Chelsea side with the team having a series of brilliant match winners such as Eden Hazard and Diego Costa alongside an excellent defence protected by the influential N'Golo Kante. Chelsea comfortably disposed of Arsenal's dwindling challenge with a 3-1 home win last weekend which consolidated their grip on top spot.

Match Odds

Burnley are an interesting betting proposition this weekend and are bound to tempt some at odds of 9.40. Their home record demands respect and the Clarets have been consistently under-rated in front of their own fans this season. But ultimately this match represents their toughest opponents and it is likely to prove a step too far for them.

Chelsea are obvious favourites having won 19 of their 24 league games this season. However the visitors do not offer value in this market at 1.44 against tricky opposition. Conte's side have the best away record with 26 points this season and are fancied to overcome the hosts but there are better ways of backing the league leaders.

The draw is priced up at 5.00 and this may appear to be on the generous side but it does not appeal. Burnley have only been held once at home this season while Chelsea's only draw since September came at Liverpool last month. Both of these teams tend to produce definitive results so a stalemate looks an unlikely outcome. 

Winning Margin

An alternative way of backing Chelsea is to take the league leaders to win by a one-goal margin. Three of their last five away league wins have been by this amount while Burnley's last five defeats all been by one goal. All three of Dyche's side's home losses have been by this margin so there is every reason to think this could go the same way. The favourites are excellent value at [5/2] to edge to another win.

Ref Watch

Kevin Friend takes charge of Sunday's clash with the referee sending off just one player in 22 games this season. This compares to six red cards in 31 matches during the last campaign.

Opta Stat

The Blues have kept the most clean sheets in the Premier League this season with 13, four more than they managed in the whole of last season. Chelsea are 10/11 to keep another clean sheet this weekend.

Recommended Bet
Back Chelsea to win by one goal @ 5/2 (Sportsbook)