Monday 13th February, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1
Bournemouth
Eddie Howe's Cherries are in the midst of a poor run of form. After their New Year's Ever win over Swansea, Bournemouth were tenth in the league, with 24 points. Fast forward six weeks or so and they now find themselves in 14th, just six points off the drop zone. This is a team flirting with relegation without being obvious about it.
In reality, there are more than three teams in this league worse than the south coasters, and they should be perfectly fine come May, but one win in eight is hardly inspiringand a big performance against Man City in front of their own fans could be salve to the Cherries' wounds.
Charlie Daniels, arguably Howe's standout defender this season, is a serious doubt with a knee injury and Callum Wilson will miss the game with the same problem. Adam Smith and Simon Francis have a good chance of being passed fit.
Man City
If a top four finish is a minimum requirement for Pep Guardiola's Manchester City this season, then they are in good shape to achieve at least that. The league title is clearly beyond them now, but with safe qualification for the Champions League and the successful integration of the outrageously-talented Gabriel Jesus, 2016/17 represents a platform for a serious punch next time out.
City cast Monday night's opponents aside with ease in September, but there is a reasonable chance this return fixture will be a different story, depending on which Bournemouth side turn up. The Cherries are capable of being brilliant or terrible depending on the weather. City will need to be focused to get the job done.
With the exception of long-term absentee Ilkay Gundogan, Guardiola has a full-strength squad to choose from.
Match Odds
Man City will start this game as favourites, that much is clear. 1.48 is what they currently trade at, and for me that is punitively short. I don't really like backing away sides at such a short price, whoever they are. The Premier League throws up upsets all the time, and for me it's not worth attempting to buy money in such an unpredictable division.
Bournemouth are a bigger price (7.40) but, despite what I've just written, their record against City is awful - they've lost their last three, conceding 13 goals in the process.
The Draw is available at 5.10.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
With Overs at 1.54 and City trading at 1.48, the market is clearly expecting a tonking for Howe's men on Monday night. There's no juice in that over 2.5 goals price and I'm not entirely convinced that Bournemouth can keep City at bay in the form either side are in.
Unders is currently available at 2.72.
To Score
As I've mentioned above, Bournemouth's defensive record against Man City recently is utterly woeful, and it's reasonable to suggest a player of Gabriel Jesus' quality will be able to breach their defences even if he only plays for half an hour at the end when tiredness is setting in.
Of course he may start, in which case his price will come in from the 1.95 that should be on offer. My advice would be to check the starting lineup and, if he starts, back him as soon as you can. And if he doesn't start, take advantage of the price boost and back him anyway.
Recommended Bet
Back Gabriel Jesus to score at any time at 1.95 or better
0 nhận xét Blogger 0 Facebook
Post a Comment