Shanghai Masters: 3rd Round

The seeds have tumbled in Shanghai with Thiem, Goffin, Anderson, Carreno-Busta, Kyriog, Bautista-Agut and Pouille all gone. It opens up the draw and as it stands it is hard to see anything but a Federer v Nadal final. Can anyone get in the way of two of the all time greats…

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Juan Martin Del Potro v Alexander ZverevThis will be the first meeting between the pair and there will be no shortage of fire power in the court. There are great similarities to their games from the big serve/forehand combination to the ability to come forward and play in the forecourt. There is one glaring difference in their games – the backhand! Injuries have restricted Del Potro’s ability to hit through his backhand but the same cannot be said about Zverev. His backhand is as clean as they come and in the coming years he will be recognised as having the best backhand in the game. Look for the German to really attack the Del Potro backhand – he will stretch him wide and get him on the run. It will be a winning formula.
Best Bet: Zverev WIN ($1.73)

Gilles Simon v Richard GasquetSimon’s win over Goffin was his first against a top 10 player in his last 8 attempts. He has had great success here in the past but The Wolf cannot look past Gasquet and says we will continue to ride him. He delivered at a price against Chung and has close to a flawless record against Simon. He is 6-1 lifetime in matches with his fellow Frenchman and most of those were played when Simon was a top 20 player. Simon doesn’t have the weapons to hurt Gasquet and Wolfy says Richard is huge value for the second match in a row. As close as it get to a 5 chipper!
Best Bet: Gasquet WIN ($1.57)

Rafael Nadal v Fabio FogniniThe Wolf predicted a fast start from Nadal this week and we got exactly that. He breezed past Donaldson but today faces an opponent that has troubled him in the past. Fognini is one of a select few to have multiple career wins over Nadal on clay and despite the Spanird winning their last 4 clashes none of them have come easily. In each of those encounters at least one of the sets has gone to 7-5 or further and the same can be said about 7 of the last 8 clashes. The H2H record reads 5-3 Nadal in the last 8 meetings with  Fognini winning 8 of the last 21 sets. The Italian has also found some form in recent weeks. He made the final in St Petersburg and has beat Verdasco and Pouille this week. 6 of the last 7 best of 3 set matches have gone over the set total. The Over shapes as a solid play.
Best Bet: Over 19.5 games ($1.91)

Alexandr Dolgopolov v Roger FedererFederer got off to a slightly slow start against Schwartzman but we should see him go to a next level after getting a taste of the conditions. His serve was right on and that is a great sign of where his game is at. He thundered down 14 aces but The Wolf is more excited about the fact that he won 56% of second serve points against the player who wins more return points than anyone else on tour. Federer has never lost to Dolgopolov and the Ukranian style plays right into Roger’s strengths. Dolgopolov likes to take the ball early and that suits Federer who loves nothing better than to play up on the baseline. It allows him to take his backhand on the rise and turns it into an attacking weapon. The Swiss maestro will claim at least one break in each of the sets.
Best Bet: Federer -4.5 ($1.91)