Serie A Betting: Juventus slip-up at surprise package Sampdoria

Napoli v Milan
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 2 and Betfair Live Video

After the agony of Italy's failure to make it to Russia next summer, Serie A is back with what should be a stellar weekend, or at least a spectacular Saturday.

It all starts with Roma against Lazio, and that is followed by Napoli's coming together with Milan. This is a massive game for both teams, with Napoli coming off the back of that disappointing 0-0 draw with Chievo. They might be unbeaten in 24 Serie A games, but this is a high-class season, and any point dropped will be keenly felt.

So with Juventus snapping ominously at their heels, Napoli face Vincenzo Montella's much criticised Milan. I think that Napoli will get the win, and are priced at 1.49 to do so, but Milan are in good form away from home having won their last two, and this will not be easy.

Last season, it finished 4-2 in Napoli's favour, and I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar here. Lorenzo Insigne will feel that he has a point to prove in a high-profile game, Suso has a great record against Napoli, and with so much at stake this could be a real firecracker.

Before that 0-0 draw at the Bentegodi, Napoli's three previous games had all gone Over 3.5 Goals, and two of Milan's last three away matches have also reached that mark, and that's the bet here. You should be able to get 2.50 matched for there to be at least four goals at the San Paolo, and that's where my money will be going this weekend.

Recommended Bet
Over 3.5 Goals in Napoli v Milan @ 2.50

Roma v Lazio
Saturday, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 2 and Betfair Live Video

I think that it will be a similar story in the early game at the Olimpico in Rome. These two sides have been free scoring so far this season, and there's enough vulnerability about both of them defensively to believe that we could have a real thriller in the Capital.

Lazio have now won their last nine consecutive games in all competitions, and Roma are on a good run too. Lazio have scored 22 times in their last seven games, while having done a good defensive job at the start of the season, Roma are starting to spread their wings. That devastating display against Chelsea was followed by a 4-2 win against Fiorentina, and I could see these two sides going toe to toe in a game full of goals.

It's one of those occasions on which you have to picture the way that the encounter will be played out rather than worry too much about statistics. It's about where these teams are right now and the kind of match that they will produce. The early kick off time on a Saturday bothers me, but there'll still be a terrific atmosphere, and I believe that both teams will produce.

Lazio are brilliant to watch, spearheaded by Ciro Immobile, and Roma have in form Edin Dzeko to lead the line along with several more goal-scoring options. I like the market perception that this could be a little more attritional and low scoring than usual, because that gives us more of a price on the "overs", and I'm happy to back them at 2.60.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Roma v Lazio @ 2.60

Sampdoria v Juventus
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport 3 and Betfair Live Video

I can't let Juventus go off at 1.63 against Sampdoria at Marassi and not think about laying them. Samp have picked up only one point in their last eight Serie A games against Juventus, but with the Bianconeri's veterans smarting and surely tired after their tribulations with Italy in midweek, it will take a monumental effort for them to come and win here.

Samp have now won five games out of five at home, including convincing wins against both Atalanta and Milan, and there's no way that they should be as big as 7.00 to win this. I know that it looks as if Juve are on one of those steamroller runs that could take them all the way to the title, but this is not a vintage Juventus team.

They are ageing, they can creak, and Marco Giampaolo's youthful Samp team have the potential to give them nightmares in what will be one heck of an atmosphere. I like Lucas Torreira, Gaston Ramirez gives them guile and they have two excellent finishers in the shape of Fabio Quagliarella and Duvan Zapata.

Juve are powerful away from home and of course shouldn't be written off, but Samp are a good bet this weekend, and while I'm tempted to take that big price about them winning, I'm also happy to lay Juve and keep the draw on our side.

Recommended Bet
Lay Juventus against Sampdoria @ 1.63