Leicester v Manchester United: Expect Red Devils response

Leicester v Man Utd
Saturday, 19:45 GMT
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Foxes hit and miss at home

Leicester have won the same amount of home games this season as fourth-placed Liverpool (four); they've also lost more on their own patch (four) than second-bottom West Brom.

New boss Claude Puel had the Foxes flying up the table with a quartet of wins (v Spurs and Burnley at home and away to Newcastle and Southampton) but since banking those 12 points they've had their pants pulled down in a 3-0 home defeat by Crystal Palace and also crashed out of the Carabao Cup.

To be fair, there was not much shame in the latter given that they fought back to force extra-time against Manchester City before losing on spot-kicks.

Leicester lost this fixture 3-0 last season although that came at a time when confidence and spirit was evaporating fast and later that same month (February), they parted ways with Claudio Ranieri.

In their glorious title-winning season of 2015/2016, they'd drawn 1-1 both home and away with the Red Devils.

United have history of bouncing back

There's been plenty of negativity hanging around United this season.

It's not helped by the amazing exploits of their neighbours City, it's not helped by Jose Mourinho's miserable demeanour and it's not helped by crashing out of the League Cup to a Championship side.

Mourinho was a particularly unhappy chappy after Wednesday night's last-gasp defeat at Bristol City and hardly went about defending his players.

But let's not forget this: on all seven occasions that Man Utd have failed to win this season, they've gone out and taken victory in the very next game.

In other words, this is not a good time for Leicester to come up against United. Mourinho is wounded. He will demand his side strikes back.

United odds-on

At 1.90, many will deem that sufficient odds to get involved on Man Utd.

It's also easy to argue that Leicester are value at 4.70 if everything clicks. The Draw is 3.75.

If we look past the perception that United are having a mixed time of it and concentrate on the hard facts, Mourinho's men do win a lot of games - 71% of their 28 matches this season.

And in the Premier League, they've won four of their last five road trips, only a 1-0 loss at Chelsea spoiling that sequence.

Given the way Leicester looked vulnerable on the break against Crystal Palace, this could be a tricky night for the home fans and three of United's five away wins this season have been by two goals or more.

Use Paul Pogba as a filter and all three of those have come when the Frenchman has played and given them that extra bit of everything.

Therefore I like Man Utd (-1) on the handicaps at 5/2 (Sportsbook).

Overs the call

It's virtually a pick 'em in the 2.5 Goals market with Under 2.00 and Over 1.96.

While United can play out some stodgy 1-0 wins at home, their away games tend to be more open and Overs has landed in six of the nine.

Two of the three failures were at Anfield (0-0) and Stamford Bridge (lost 1-0) so in this kind of fixture he'll let his men off the leash more.

Leicester's stats are pretty balanced but I think it's United who will dictate the outcome so Overs is the play.

Big-time Vardy

While Romelu Lukaku's record against top teams gets hammered, the very opposite is true when it comes to Jamie Vardy.

The England star relishes his showdowns with the elite and he's scored more Premier League goals (12) than any other player in matches against the 'Big 6' since the start of last season. He's way clear of anyone else in fact.

Vardy has netted in this King Power fixture twice in the last three seasons and his last five home goals in all comps this season have come against Chelsea, Liverpool, Everton, Spurs and Man City (on Tuesday night).

The good thing, of course, is that we get him at bigger odds than if he was facing a bottom-half side so Vardy to score anytime at 3.15 is a must.

Ref watch

Jonathan Moss makes the trip from Leeds to Leicester for this one.

He's shown 49 yellows and a red (Liverpool's Sadio Mane) in 16 games this season so averages just over three cards per match.

Perhaps as a good omen for the handicap bet, he's reffed two Man Utd away games this term, the 4-0 win at Swansea and 4-2 success at Watford.

He was also the man in the middle for United's 1-0 home win over Spurs and in his three matches in charge of Mourinho's men he's yellow carded just a single Red Devil each time.

Moss booked sub Shinji Okazaki in his only Leicester game, a 1-1 draw at Huddersfield.

However, the last time he visited the King Power, he incurred the wrath of the home fans for sending off Jamie Vardy in a 2-2 draw with West Ham.