Everton v Swansea: Toffees look a sweet bet to beat rock bottom Swans

Everton v Swansea

Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event & Premier League

Toffees well and truly out of sticky patch

It's been quite a turnaround for Everton since it was announced that Sam Allardyce would become their new manager.

The Toffees had won just one of their previous 12 going into their home game with West Ham - the day Allardyce's appointment was made official though David Unsworth would remain in charge for that game - and they would duly go on and record their biggest win of the season, thrashing the Hammers 4-0.

And typical of a 'Big Sam' team, Everton have since won three of their next four without conceding a single goal, while they managed a terrific 1-1 draw at Anfield against Merseyside rivals Liverpool.

It means that the Toffees are now looking up the table rather than below them, and they go into this weekend's round of fixtures just eight points behind top four contenders Arsenal. If Allardyce can bring in a quality striker in January then the second half of the season could be a very fruitful one for Everton.

A further boost will arrive in the shape of Yannick Bolasie's return to fitness following a long-term knee injury; the talented winger is expected to earn a place on the bench.

Lack of goals could be Swansea's downfall

Swansea will go into Monday night's game at Goodison Park rock bottom of the Premier League table, four points adrift of safety, and when you look at the Premier League 'Goals For' column it's plainly obvious where Paul Clement's problems lie.

The Swans have scored just nine league goals this season, the worst return in the division, and incredibly the team's midfield has contributed just one goal in 17 games, Sam Clucas scoring in a 2-1 defeat at Arsenal two months ago.

Clement's men will arrive on Merseyside on the back of five straight away defeats, while they've won just one of their last 10 in all competitions, a narrow home win against out of form West Brom.

If there is a glimmer of light for Swansea on the road then it's the fact that they've always stayed in games, not once conceding more than two goals in a match and only conceding nine away goals in total from their 10 games played.

They'll also take heart from the fact that they haven't lost to Everton in their last seven league and cup games, winning three and drawing four.

Home side look banker material

Less than four weeks ago Everton were in disarray, conceding goals for fun both in the Europa League and domestically. In fact, when Southampton put four past them in late November the Toffees had conceded an alarming 25 goals in eight games, and they were on a run of 13 games without keeping a clean sheet.

Even a home game against Swansea would have had you rushing to press the lay button on the Toffees.

But all of a sudden Everton look a completely different animal, so much so that a price of 1.80 about them taking all three points on Monday night almost looks like an early Christmas gift.

It's been an impressive turnaround without question; four wins (by an aggregate score of 10-0) and a draw from five games since Allardyce arrived, four clean sheets, and now a great opportunity to cut the gap on those above them even further by beating what is statistically the division's worst team and lowest goalscorers.

There's absolutely nothing in Swansea's current form or recent away form that merits them being backed at 5.70 to win the game, and even the Draw at 3.60 makes little appeal.

This looks like a match between two clubs heading in completely different directions; Everton in great form and climbing up the table, Swansea massively out of form and heading towards relegation. A home win is a strong recommendation.

Generous price means goals worth backing

Unless it's a David v Goliath clash, or Manchester City versus anyone, then a good starting point to assess an Under/Over 2.5 Goals market is to ask yourself can you see both teams getting on the scoresheet.

If your answer is yes, then look to the Overs price, if it's no then look to Unders.

This is a fascinating market in many ways then, because the standard rule I've just mentioned goes out of the window to some extent. Can I see Everton scoring? Absolutely. Can I see Swansea scoring? Probably not. But then you see Under 2.5 Goals trading at just 1.65 and you immediately think wow, that's way too short.

So I simply have to side with Over 2.5 Goals in this market at what looks a cracking price at 2.40.

Okay, Swansea are the lowest scorers in the Premier League, and that is probably the main reason why 'Unders' is such a short price. But in Everton we have a team now flowing with confidence, and one that scored six goals in their last two home games; in-form Wayne Rooney scoring three of those.

To be confident about backing 'Unders' at 1.65 you have to put your faith in a lot of things happening. One of those things would be for Everton not to score at least three themselves. I'm not confident at all that the Toffees won't score at least three, and therefore I have to back 'Overs'.

Recommended Bets

Back Everton to Win @ 1.80 

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40