El Clásico Betting: Barcelona can take giant stride towards Spanish title

Real Madrid v Barcelona
Saturday, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Football and Betfair Live Video

Win or bust for Los Merengues

If you were to draw up a list of things you didn't want to happen before El Clásico, it would probably look something like Real Madrid's current circumstances. Shaky form? Check. A huge points deficit? Check. Key players underperforming? Check. Your star man struggling with an injury? Check? A schlep to Abu Dhabi for a couple of middlingly important games just a week before your biggest match of the season? Check, check, check!

We may only be halfway through the campaign, but it's surely win or nothing for Real as far as the Spanish title goes. And with their most bitter rivals fully 11 points better off, even a victory would only give them half a chance. Zinedine Zidane must hope for a proper performance - something akin to what his charges produced against Sevilla in their last league game, for instance - not just to reel in Barça, but also to breathe some belief into the squad.

Cristiano Ronaldo reported some pain in his calf after the Club World Cup game against Grêmio and has been training alone this week, meaning there is some minor doubt over his involvement here. Gareth Bale will be hoping to feature, although Karim Benzema's Clásico record at the Bernabéu - six goals in all competitions - is likely to mean Zidane sticks with the XI that saw off the Copa Libertadores winners.

Barça looking to land knockout blow

Barcelona's preparations for Saturday's game have been more serene: they've had the week off since producing one of their best performances of the season against Deportivo La Coruña. Ernesto Valverde's charges were 4-0 winners against the Galicians, but in truth they could easily have reached double figures. It's now 24 games unbeaten to start the season (all competitions), meaning the worry and frustration of the summer transfer window is now but a distant memory.

Most importantly, Barça seem to have built up a nice head of steam coming into this game. Luis Suárez has relocated his scoring boots after a sketchy few months, Andrés Iniesta is doing Andrés Iniesta things, and the likes of Paulinho and Paco Alcácer are sharing some of the weight that has, in the past, fallen squarely on the shoulders of Lionel Messi. The spirit in the camp is good and they will be keen to land a knockout blow against wavering opponents.

Sergio Busquets should return to the side after being rested against Depor, meaning that Alcácer may have to content himself with a cameo off the bench in Madrid. Elsewhere major changes are unlikely, and Thomas Vermaelen can probably expect to keep his place despite the return of soon-to-depart Javier Mascherano.

Momentum with the visitors

Madrid won both legs of the Spanish Super Cup back in August, but things have changed drastically for both sides since then, such that those games aren't an ideal barometer to predict how things will go on Saturday. The league table does not lie and Barcelona have so far been streets ahead of Real Madrid, at both ends of the pitch, meaning we're reticent to back the hosts at 2.24.

Barça have enjoyed themselves on recent visits to the Bernabéu, winning three of the last four league Clásicos at the home of their rivals. The momentum is clearly with them and the only reason to be circumspect about the away win at 3.25 is the fact that a draw would still be a good result. To take that eventuality out of the equation, backing Barcelona Draw No Bet at 2.42 looks like the play.

Blaugrana defence in fine form

These sides don't tend to hold back when they meet, as recent results attest: only one of the last 12 Clásicos in La Liga has produced fewer than three goals. That means over 2.5 goals is a measly 1.46, meaning you'll have to be a bit braver if you fancy a thriller.

Over 3.5 goals is 2.08, but it's worth bearing in mind that Barça have been very frugal in recent weeks, keeping 10 clean sheets in their last 13 games in all competitions. With Benzema and Ronaldo struggling for form, it may not explode.

Magical Messi can't be ignored

Lionel Messi is the all-time top scorer in Clásico history in all competitions (24 goals), in La Liga (16) and at the Bernabéu (14). He has 14 league goals to his name this term and has hit the woodwork 14 times, so 2.12 looks like a price worth taking on.