AFL Preview Round 4: Hawks v Demons

Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sun 3:20pm AEST at MCG

It is Sunday afternoon footy at the ‘G, with Hawthorn taking on Melbourne for what promises to be a blockbuster clash. Both sides are sitting 2-1 to start the season, although one might argue the quality of Hawthorn’s opponents has been much higher. Tom Mitchell continues to get leather poisoning, and he has been ably assisted by the (finally) fit again Jaeger O’Meara while the return of James Sicily should allow Jack Gunston to return to where he is most dangerous- in front of goal. For Melbourne, Jesse Hogan has been huge- with the power forward also rolling through the midfield; much like his talented teammate Christian Petracca, who is averaging 24 disposals and 1.7 goals a game.
You won’t want to miss this clash, where there is plenty of value to be found for the plucky punter.

FormHawthorn (WWL) – After two strong wins to start the year, the Hawks were gallant in last round’s defeat to Richmond. They had the run of play for much of the game, and it was simply poor execution that let them down. Alistair Clarkson will certainly have something up his sleeve again for this one.

Melbourne (LWW) – If it wasn’t for Max Gawn’s horrendous shank in Round 1, the Demons would currently be sitting undefeated at the top of the ladder with Port Adelaide. They haven’t exactly lit the world on fire in their victories over Brisbane and North Melbourne, but the performances of Gawn and Jesse Hogan, in particular, will give supporters something to smile about.

Stats That Matter– Hawthorn have won 14 of their past 15 meetings
– Tom Mitchell has amassed 40+ disposals in every match this year
– The Demons are the highest scoring side this year while the Hawks sit fourth
– Max Gawn averages 113 Fantasy Points per game against Hawthorn
– Hawthorn have outscored their opponents by 41 in 2nd quarters this season
– Jarryd Roughead kicked 4 goals last time they met
– Melbourne are 4-9 ATS at home since the start of 2017

Betting Data2018 Line: Hawthorn – 2-1; Melbourne– 2-1
2018 Over-Under: Hawthorn – 2-1; Melbourne– 2-1

What To ExpectThe Wolf is expecting a tight contest for the whole game, with lead changes galore. The ruck battle between Gawn and McEvoy will be an absorbing one- and critical to the whole contest. If McEvoy can stretch Gawn (and the Wolf thinks he can), Hawthorn are better equipped to win a close one.

How It’s Shaping UpHawthorn by 8

Recommended Bets

Best: Both Teams Score 80 Points ($1.82)
Value: Hawthorn WIN and Over 179.5 ($3.30)
Player Multi: Jarryd Roughead 2+ Goals/Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals ($3.02)
First Goalscorer: Jarryd Roughead