AFL Preview Round 4: Tigers v Lions

Richmond v Brisbane
Sat 2:10pm AEST at MCG

It will likely be a typically drizzly Melbourne day on Saturday afternoon when the Lions travel down to take on the Tigers. Brisbane stunned the Alberton crowd with their performance last round against Port, and will be up and about in search of their first win in 2018. Unfortunately for them, however, they will have to take on the 2017 Premiers, who have looked reasonably solid over the first few rounds. The Lions will have to bring their new brutish contested game style, and out-enthuse the manic Tigers if they are to have any chance- but this is a huge task at the MCG.

FormRichmond (WLW) – After a heavy defeat to Adelaide in Round 2, the Tigers responded with a tough win over the Hawks, despite Dusty Martin being relatively quiet. The defence was absolutely superb, and broke down wave after wave of Hawthorn attacks; while Trent Cotchin led from the front in a superb display that netted 31 disposals, 8 clearances and 7 inside 50’s.

Brisbane (LLL) – The Lions almost pulled off the biggest upset of recent memory when they pushed Port all the way in Adelaide last round, before eventually succumbing by a mere 5 points. Stefan Martin was absolutely colossal in the ruck, but Chris Fagan will be particularly pleased with the contributions and competitiveness from his young rookies.

Stats That Matter– Richmond have won their past 11 games against Brisbane
– Trent Cotchin averages 107 Fantasy points per game against the Lions- his highest against any team
– The Tigers are 3-0 on the Over/Under this year
– Richmond won both their meetings last year, at an average margin of 41 points
– Brisbane are 3-10 ATS away from home
– The Tigers have allowed at least 1 opposition player to rack up 35+ disposals in every game this year
– Jack Riewoldt has kicked 16 goals in his past 4 games against Brisbane

Betting Data2018 Line:  Richmond– 1-2; Brisbane– 1-2
2018 Over-Under: Richmond– 3-0; Brisbane– 1-2

What To ExpectThe Wolf is a big fan of the way these Lions cubs go about their footy, but the Tigers defence was almost impregnable against the Hawks, and it is hard to see how this young forward line can stretch the experienced, and suffocating, defence. The fact this game is at the ‘G, where Richmond have thrived, makes it all the more tougher. The Wolf is expecting a close contest in the intial stages before Richmond kick away in the 4th quarter.

How It’s Shaping UpRichmond by 28

Recommended Bets

Best: Richmond 1-39 ($2.40)
Value: Dustin Martin 35+ Disposals ($5.50)
Player Prop: Trent Cotchin 100+ Fantasy Points ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Jacob Townsend