AFL Preview Round 5: Lions v Suns

Brisbane v Gold Coast
Sun 4:40pm at The Gabba

It’s Q-Clash time! Despite boasting possibly the worst name for a Derby in sporting history, the match between the Lions and the Suns at the Gabba on Sunday afternoon should actually be a close contest. Brisbane are yet to get off the board this season, while the Suns started with a bang after consecutive wins to open the season. Stuart Dew has finally got all the Gold Coast boys singing to the same tune- they are nowhere near the lazy bunch of misfits they were under Rodney Eade and look to relish the defensive press Dew has them playing. The Lions have also looked more competitive in 2018, save for the horrible 93 point thrashing last week at the hands of Richmond. The Lions usually save their best for the Gabba, and the Suns will be refreshed after a fortnight in Perth- so expect a tight, see-sawing tussle in this one.

Form

Brisbane (LLLL) – The Lions put in an insipid performance last round against the Tigers, one week after they almost pulled off the upset of the year against Port Adelaide. They pulled out their lowest ever score in Lions history, in what were pretty reasonable conditions for footy.  Before that though, the Lions looked full of fight, with Stefan Martin an absolute colossus through the ruck.

Gold Coast (WWLL) – The Suns were absolutely belted by the Eagles last round, but it was clear the young side looked absolutely exhausted and were, as such, out-classed. In their two wins, they looked to be a side full of run and defensive endeavour- forcing skill errors from the opposition and taking advantage with good delivery into Tom Lynch. 

Stats That Matter– Brisbane won both their meetings in 2017 (including a 58 point victory in Round 21)
– Dayne Beams averages 30 disposals and 116 Fantasy points per game against the Suns
– The Lions are 1-3 ATS in 2018
– Tom Lynch has kicked 25 goals in his 11 games against Brisbane
– Each side is 1-3 on the Over/Under this season
– Touk Miller has averaged 28 disposals in his past 3 games against the Lions, up from his career average of 19

Betting Data2018 Line: Brisbane– 1-3; Gold Coast– 2-2
2018 Over-Under: Brisbane– 1-3; Gold Coast– 1-3

What To Expect

The Wolf is expecting a cracking contest, with both sides very well matched up against each other- as the odds reflect. Gold Coast will appreciate being back in the Sunshine State, though, and look a far more cohesive unit than the Lions. Toss of the coin, but Wolfie is backing the Suns to outrun the Lions and steal the Q-Clash spoils.

How It’s Shaping UpGold Coast by 3

Recommended Bets

Best: Gold Coast WIN ($2.15)
Value: HT/FT Double- Brisbane/Gold Coast ($7.00)
Player Prop: Dayne Beams 30+ Disposals ($2.40)
First Goalscorer: Eric Hipwood