AFL Preview Round 10: Cats v Blues

Geelong v Carlton
Sat 7:25pm at The Gabba

A Cats side licking their wounds will welcome the last-placed Blues to the hostile confines of GMHBA Stadium on Saturday night in what is sure to be a bloodbath. Chris Scott will be livid with the way his boys capitulated against the Bombers last round, and with the little master Gaz playing in the hoops back home for the first time, there is a lot of the line for the Cats. We can expect a Geelong side that will be smelling blood, with a weak Carlton carcass ripe for the picking. You’d like to say that the Blues should rebound and prove that individually and collectively they are up to AFL standard, but we just haven’t seen anything this season to suggest that will be the case. One win won’t convince people you are a genuine side to be afraid of, only continual competitiveness, effort and an ability to score more than 60 points a game will. Hard to see them proving that against the Cats in Geelong. Turn away, Blues fans.

Form

Geelong (WLWWL) – After consecutive wins against tough opponents in GWS and Collingwood, the Cats were completely blown away by the erratic Bombers. Geelong were absolutely smashed in contested footy and couldn’t buy a clearance- although truth be told it was the first game they had to fit Joel Selwood, Dangerfield, Duncan, Kelly and Ablett in the same midfield. Chris Scott might be a touch concerned with how poorly his side responded under the smothering pressure and electric ball movement of the Bombers despite all they tried in the coaches box, but they will get plenty of opportunities to set it right against Carlton.

Carlton (LLLWL) – Brendan Bolton can harp on about development and improvement all he likes- 109 point losses are simply unacceptable no matter what stage your list is at. They continually butchered the ball, with no sense of courage to take the game on- or any sense of a game plan and the midfield was completely overpowered. That midfield was made to look like a TAC Cup team playing an AFL team, such was the mismatch (besides Cripps, who tried hard all day). Turnovers are one thing, but when you fail to chase and spread to make up for your mistake, well- you aren’t tough enough to be playing AFL footy.

Stats That Matter– Geelong’s last 7 games have all gone Unders
– Ed Curnow has had 130+ Fantasy Points four times this year
– The Cats won the last clash by 65 points
– Carlton have lost 17 of their last 19 matches
– Tom Hawkins had 27 disposals and 6 goals in their last meeting
– Geelong has a percentage of 158% in 3rd quarters this season, while Carlton’s is just 56%

Betting Data

2018 Line: Geelong- 5-4; Carlton- 4-5

2018 Over-Under: Geelong- 5-4; Carlton- 5-4

What To Expect

The Wolf is expecting a massive response from the senior players at Geelong- who took responsibility straight away and you can already sense the steel in their eyes to right their wrongs against a side that could only be described as abhorrent last round. Gary Ablett has flagged a big game for himself, but the way he plays these days (for himself) means that doesn’t seem to have much of a difference to the team’s fortunes. The Cats will return to their best on Saturday night in Geelong and the Blues will continue their slide into irrelevance.

How It’s Shaping UpGeelong by 46

Pump It Up Price Special: Dangerfield/Selwood/Ablett Combine for 100+ Disposals and Geelong 1-40 Points ($10.00)

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Carlton 0-60 Total Points ($1.97)
Value Bet: Ed Curnow 12+ Tackles ($4.00)
Player Prop: Gary Ablett 35+ Disposals ($2.15)
First Goalscorer: Tom Hawkins