Fremantle v Nth Melbourne
Sun 4:40pm at Optus Stadium
Sun 4:40pm at Optus Stadium
The last game of Round 10 sees two dour sides in the Dockers and the Roos clash in what is becoming an almost impregnable fortress, Optus Stadium. North Melbourne still sit inside the Top 8 thanks to their 5-4 record and healthy percentage; but they will not find the going quite so easy in Perth against the Ross Lyon-coached Dockers. Freo appear to magically grow another leg in Perth, and while they will struggle to put a big score on the Roos; they will fancy their chances of prevailing in an arm wrestle.
Form
Fremantle (WLLWL) – All the ‘W’s’ in the form line are Fremantle home games, which, unless you’ve been living under a rock, will come as no surprise. They’ve suffered some heavy defeats in Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney, but they are quickly making sure Perth is not a happy hunting ground for interstate teams. Nat Fyfe looks to have sewn up the 3 Brownlow votes in all 4 home fixtures, and will be a huge task for North’s tagger, Ben Jacobs.
North Melbourne (WLWLW) – It may look like a very up and down form line, but North have certainly exceeded expectations so far this season. They suffered an agonising 10 point loss to Richmond (which, had they kicked straight in the final 10 minutes, would have won) a fortnight ago, but rebounded strongly to completely blow the Giants off the park in Hobart last round. Ben Brown and Jarrad Waite are proving to be a phenomenal forward pairing rivaled only by Kennedy/Darling, while the blue collar midfield of Higgins, Cunnington, Ziebell and McDonald keeps plugging away, getting the job done.
Stats That Matter– The Roos are conceding just 71 points per game on average (#1 in AFL)
– 4 of the last 6 meetings have had margins of 15 points or less
– Nat Fyfe is averaging 122 Fantasy Points per game in Perth in 2018
– North have a percentage of 165% in 1st quarters this season
– Lachie Neale has had 30+ disposals in his last 4 matches
– Freo are 4-0 ATS at home this year
– Both sides have had just 2 matches go Overs in 2018
– 4 of the last 6 meetings have had margins of 15 points or less
– Nat Fyfe is averaging 122 Fantasy Points per game in Perth in 2018
– North have a percentage of 165% in 1st quarters this season
– Lachie Neale has had 30+ disposals in his last 4 matches
– Freo are 4-0 ATS at home this year
– Both sides have had just 2 matches go Overs in 2018
Betting Data
2018 Line: Fremantle- 6-3; North Melbourne- 6-3
2018 Over-Under: Fremantle- 2-7; North Melbourne- 2-7
What To Expect
The Wolf is expecting a low-scoring tussle in this game, and with 4 of the last 6 meetings between the pair seeing margins less than 15 points, Wolfie is keen to get some of the bank roll on the Unders. The Dockers are a different prospect at home, and the Kangaroos cannot rest on their laurels at all. In fact, on paper the two sides appear to match up reasonably well- but Wolf has the home town factor swaying the match the Dockers way. Just.
Given the poor weather expected, but the total will not last long. Get on quick. Unders is an absolute moral.
Given the poor weather expected, but the total will not last long. Get on quick. Unders is an absolute moral.
How It’s Shaping UpFremantle by 6
Pump It Up Price Special: Fyfe & Neale 30 Disposals Each, Brown & Waite 2 Goals Each ($6.00)
Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Total Points UNDER 157.5 ($1.88)
Value Bet: Fremantle 1-19 ($3.45)
Player Prop: Connor Blakely 30+ Disposals ($3.50)
First Goalscorer: Jack Ziebell
Value Bet: Fremantle 1-19 ($3.45)
Player Prop: Connor Blakely 30+ Disposals ($3.50)
First Goalscorer: Jack Ziebell
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