Brisbane Broncos v Parramatta Eels Thursday, May 24, 7:50pm (AEST) Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Brisbane’s injury crisis continues with Korbin Sims the latest to join the casualty list but they go in heavy favourites against a Parramatta team sitting dead last and in desperate need of a win. With Origin looming, the Broncos need every premiership point they can get.
Recent Form Brisbane remain ninth on the ladder with a 6-5 record. They rate ninth in scoring but are a very poor 14th in defence. The Broncos have won three of their last four and have scored 20-plus in six straight. Parramatta are anchored to the bottom of the ladder with just two wins. The Eels rank last in scoring while they are a lowly 12th in defence. The Eels have dropped three straight and have conceded 20 or more in their last four.
Key MatchupDarius Boyd v Clint Gutherson. Broncos fullback Darius Boyd has been dreadfully out of form this year and has failed to reach 90m in four of his last five games. With just a single line break, no team is getting less from the back than Brisbane. Boyd gets one last chance to save his Origin jersey and will need a sharp turnaround in form. Gutherson is out of the frame for an Origin debut but is unquestionably the Eels’ best player. He has shown glimpses of his outstanding 2017 form since returning from injury. If he fires, the Eels are every chance.
Stats That Matter – Brisbane are 4-7 ATS with an 8-3 over record with their last six going over. – Parramatta are 3-8 ATS with a 6-5 under record. – Parramatta have won the last two against Brisbane and five of the last nine with the most recent win a 52-34 victory in Round 25 last year. – The last six at Suncorp have been split evenly. – High scoring matches have been the norm with five of the last six topping 42. – Brisbane are 26-22 ATS with a 31-17 over record at Suncorp since 2015 with the over hitting in 15 of their last 18 at the ground. – The Broncos have failed to cover their last six as a favourite. – The over is 12-4 in Brisbane’s last 16 as a favourite of 6 or more at Suncorp. – The Broncos are 5-9 ATS with an 11-3 over record at Suncorp after conceding 20-plus. – Broncos are 15-15 ATS with a 20-10 over record after scoring 20. – The Eels have covered just 5 of their last 13 games away from ANZ/Parramatta Stadium – Eels are 19-16 over away from their two home grounds since 2015. – The over is 15-5 when the Eels are on the road as an underdog of 4.5 or more. – The Eels are 6-10 ATS when on the road after conceding 20 or more while they are 6-10 ATS interstate in their last 16.
Final ThoughtsA high scoring clash is in the offing to open up Round 12. The Broncos are a huge over team at home with it hitting in 15 of their last 18 home games and 12 of their last 16 as a favourite. The over is also significantly up when the Eels are big road underdogs. With the history of high scorers between the two teams, a wide open affair is expected.
How It’s Shaping UpBrisbane by 6
Best: Over 43.5 Points ($1.90) Value: Both Teams to Score 20 Points ($3.00) First Tryscorer: Corey Oates ($10)