Chievo v Crotone Sunday, 14:00 Live on Betfair Live Video
After so much drama in Serie A over the last two weeks, it feels like a shame to have this weekend's set of fixtures thrown at us. Napoli look to have blown the title, and may even be vulnerable at home against Torino, and Juventus look near certainties to justify the faith that this column showed in them at the start of the season, and throughout the campaign. But it's been a hell of a ride.
We're left with some pretty meagre betting fare, although I do think that resurgent Crotone are overpriced at3.40 to win at Chievo. Two consecutive wins have lifted Walter Zenga's team somewhere near safety, and last week's demolition of Sassuolo was especially impressive.
Crotone have won both of their Serie A visits to the Bentegodi (including their victory against Hellas earlier this season) and there's no real reason to have any faith in Chievo. They have won only one of their last ten Serie A games, and even though they have finally fired their hapless Coach Rolando Maran, there's no reason to believe that they'll improve significantly. This is a poor bunch of players.
Simy is in form for the visitors, having scored five in his last five, and Marcello Trotta has been an unlikely star for them as well, now up to seven for the season. Chievo have scored just four goals in their last six games and are desperate for a win to drag themselves out of the relegation zone.
Crotone know that victory will just about guarantee safety, and with two tough fixtures to come, they'll want to get that job done this weekend.
Opposing Chievo has been profitable this season, particularly this calendar year, and that's a trend which may well continue here.
Simeone can rule Marassi again
Genoa v Fiorentina Sunday, 14:00 Live on Betfair Live Video
There were many who felt that La Viola would roll over last weekend and allow Napoli to keep up the pressure on Juventus, but Stefano Pioli's team didn't allow their Old Lady hatred to spill over into a lack of professionalism.
Now Fiorentina head for Genoa and are priced at around2.10 to make it eight wins in 11 Serie A games. Genoa are strong at home, but Fiorentina must be bouncing after that win last week, and I think that they'll come to Marassi and win.
They have the former Genoa man Giovanni Simeone to lead the line and he'll be keen to build on last week's hat-trick, while his team know that they're still in with an outside shot at a European place. Genoa are definitively safe, and so motivation as well as quality is on the side of the visitors.
The draw is a slight worry, but Fiorentina have lost only one of their last sixteen in the League against Genoa, and given that they have won seven of those with largely inferior teams to this one, I'll support them at odds against to come away with a victory.
Benevento bring the fireworks
SPAL v Benevento Sunday, 14:00 Live on Betfair Live Video
This really is a weekend of slim pickings, and with prices just about right all around the League, and plenty of short priced favourites likely to do the business, I'll take a chance that Benevento can keep up their inspired form of late, and test a SPAL team who've started to look nervous.
Benevento are unbeaten in their last two away games, at Sassuolo and Milan (where they pulled off that sensational win) and SPAL are a worse team than either of those two.
Benevento have actually picked up fourteen points in the second half of this campaign, more than four other teams, but they'll always be defined by their hopeless start.
I was really impressed by the way that they battled back against Udinese for a 3-3 draw last time, and just because SPAL need the points doesn't mean that they'll get them. Cheick Diabate will be back from suspension for this, and he makes a huge difference to Benevento, although they'll miss Danilo Cataldi after he was sent off last week.
SPAL's win at Verona last week took them out of the relegation zone and showed that they can score goals when they need to. With Benevento also full of goals, I think that's the play here. The visitors are carefree and will attack a nervous home team, and I just don't think that SPAL are good enough to play for a disciplined 1-0 win.
It finished 2-1 in SPAL's favour when the two met earlier in the season, but I think that there'll be a couple more goals than that, and will settle on backing at least four, at around the2.80 mark.