AFL Preview Round 7: Crows v Blues

Adelaide v Carlton
Sat 7:40pm at Adelaide Oval

The last game on Saturday for Round 7 sees the Crows welcome the Blues to Adelaide Oval. They shouldn’t have any issues with the Blues at home, which would resign the Navy Blues to a 0-7 record for 2018 and their worst start in their 121 year history. 

Form

Crows (WWLWW): After being blown away at home by a resurgent Pies outfit a few weeks ago, the Crows have recaptured their mojo and have recorded 2 straight wins- including a victory against the Swans in Sydney. They’ve had some huge injury issues- and specific concerns in regards to the amount of soft-tissue injuries- but the youngsters they have blooded this season have been very impressive (including Tom Doedee, Darcy Fogarty, Jordan Galluci and Lachlan Murphy). It means they are in a much better spot as their stars return- with a much more even contribution. 

Blues (LLLLL): It’s not a pretty form line for the Blues- they’ve now lost 15 of their last 16 matches. Brendan Bolton keeps pleading for patience, but Carlton have to show some sort of killer instinct at some stage, instead of continually being happy with ‘honourable’ losses. Patrick Cripps has been enormous for his side, and Ed Curnow has been serviceable through the midfield, but they desperately need some assistance in the engine room with Murphy out. 

Stats That Matter– Carlton have lost their past 8 away matches
– Josh Jenkins has kicked 11 goals in his past 3 matches against the Blues
– The Blues are only averaging 66 points a game in 2018
– Bryce Gibbs is averaging 28 disposals, 1 goal and 110 Fantasy points a game at his new club
– The Crows have won 12 of their past 16 matches at home in Adelaide
– Carlton’s average losing margin at the Adelaide Oval is 96

Betting Data

2018 Line: Crows- 4-2; Blues- 2-4
2018 Over-Under: Crows- 1-5; Blues- 2-4

What To Expect

Anything less than a massive Crows win would be a huge surprise in this game. The Wolf is hesitant to take the short odds about Adelaide (40+ = $1.37) or the long line (-55.5) and instead the Wolf is backing the stingy Adelaide defence to keep the inexperienced Carlton forwards to a low score.

How It’s Shaping UpAdelaide by 58

Recommended Bets

Best: Carlton 0-60 Points ($1.62)
Value: Bryce Gibbs 130+ Fantasy points ($5.00)
Player Prop: Jenkins 3+ Goals/Gibbs 30+ Disposals ($3.30)
First Goalscorer: Matthew Wright ($12.00)

Pump It Up Price Special: Betts/Jenkins Combine for 8+ Goals ($6.00)