The traditional Saturday afternoon fixture at the MCG sees the 4th placed Hawks take on a Bombers side that will be desperate not to slip to 2-5 for the season in what will be Joe Daniher’s 100th game. Essendon’s best this season, in their two wins, looked exciting- but when they are off they are REALLY off- and their defensive pressure at both ends of the ground and two-way running completely evapourates. Hawthorn, on the other hand, have been very steady, and the youngsters Alistair Clarkson’s is bringing are fitting in seamlessly.
Bombers (LLWLL) – Things are looking a little worrying for Bombers fans, with consecutive 30+ point losses despite leading at stages during both games. Joe Daniher’s poor form (7 goals in 6 games) has been a big talking point, but the lack of output and defensive pressure of McDonald-Tipungwuti, Green and Fantasia has also been concerning with the trio only combining for 14 goals this year and averaging 3 tackles a game. They are averaging 12 less points a game than they were in 2017.
Hawks (WLWLW) – After a disappointing loss to North Melbourne a fortnight ago, the Hawks rebounded with a comfortable win down in Launceston over the Saints. Luke Breust has kicked 19 goals at an astonishing 79% while Isaac Smith has been in career-best form, averaging 23 disposals a game to go with his 10 goals. The fact they are currently sitting in the Top 4 may be a surprise to some, but it is just typical Hawthorn/typical Alistair Clarkson.
Stats That Matter– Essendon have not won a third quarter this season – The Hawks are 3-1 ATS at the MCG in 2018 – Zach Merrett has averaged 33 disposals a game in his past 3 against Hawthorn – Their past 3 meetings have gone Overs – Luke Breust is averaging 3.2 goals a game this season- his previous highest was 2.3 goals a game – Hawthorn are 0-3 on the Over/Under in their last 3 matches – David Zaharakis has had 25+ disposals in 5 of his 6 games
The Wolf isn’t expecting a whole lot from Essendon in this one, and has one market in particular picked out for followers. The Bombers have been horrendous in 3rd quarters this season, losing all 6 with a percentage of 46%. On the flip side- Hawthorn have run rampant, scoring 49 more points than their opponents for a percentage of 156%. The -1.5 line (at $1.87) looks to be money for jam if things pan out as expected at the ‘G on Saturday afternoon.
How It’s Shaping UpHawthorn by 28
Best: 3rd Quarter- Hawthorn -1.5 ($1.87) Value: Hawthorn 25+ ($2.90) Player Prop: Isaac Smith 110+ Fantasy points ($2.75) First Goalscorer: Joe Daniher