Argentina v Iceland: South Americans can squeeze out narrow opening success

Argentina v Iceland
Saturday 16th June, 14:00
Live on ITV

Unanswered questions shroud Argentina

Argentina's quest to claim a first international honour since 1993 starts in the capital on Saturday afternoon and shrouded in uncertainty. Head coach Jorge Sampaoli has only been in situ for little over 12 months, taking over for the latter stages of a chaotic and unconvincing qualification campaign.

But how he'll set his top-heavy team up remains something of a mystery. There's no doubt La Albiceleste possess the world's great footballer in Lionel Messi, but can Sampaoli find the right system and chemistry to bring the best out of the Barcelona man on the world stage?

The two-time World Cup winners are hugely reliant on their skipper for inspiration as the Argentine defence leaves a lot to be desired. Indeed, Sampaoli's demands for his renowned high line and high press could have suicidal consequences if employed by a backline that's lacking pace and mobility.

This Argentina outfit certainly have the ability to go deep in the competition but there are many unanswered questions that will need attention before we take the South American giants seriously as outright contenders.

Iceland's key men lacking fitness

An estimated 20% of the Icelandic population applied for tickets to see Our Boys in their debut World Cup appearance with their curtain-raising encounter the second match to sell-out, after the final. The Nordic nation has been gripped by World Cup fever ever since confirming their place in Russia back in October.

Heimir Hallgrimsson again defied the odds to plot a path through a devilishly difficult qualification section that included the likes of Croatia, Ukraine and Turkey. It was a brutally tough schedule but Iceland's exemplary attitude and rigid game-plan proved enough to extend their never-ending fairytale.

Unfortunately, the minnows have been hit by a series of semi-serious injuries and fitness concerns. Set-piece specialist and creative fulcrum Gylfi Sigurdsson has played just 94 minutes since returning to the fold, while captain and long-throw exponent Aaron Gunnarsson has been plagued by conditioning doubts.

With a such a shallow of pool of talent to select from, Iceland need their big guns fit and firing to prosper. No European group winner qualified having scored fewer goals (16) and Our Boys' basic, direct football is only effective when all their star names are on song.

South Americans can squeeze out narrow success

Argentina have been chalked up as hot 1.37 favourites to get their campaign off to a winning start. La Albiceleste have W12-D-L1 in their past 15 group games at the World Cup with their last defeat arriving against England way back in 2002.

However, with only one warm-up game under their belts, the South Americans could arrive a touch undercooked. Jorge Sampaoli's side should certainly pack enough punch to down their European opposition, although it might not be the cakewalk the odds suggest.

Romantics will be roaring on Iceland 12.00 in Moscow, pointing to their relative Euro 2016 success for encouragement. But the Nordic nation lost the total shot count 95-40 in their matches against Portugal, Austria, Hungary, England and France, and went off underdogs at home to Ukraine in their preliminary fixtures.

Pre-tournament performances have also raised alarm bells in the Icelandic camp - suffering defeats to Mexico, Peru and Norway, conceding three goals in each game - and so Argentina are favoured to squeeze out a narrow success with the 11/5 appealing on a Winning Margin by exactly one goal.

Few goals fancied in the capital

Only Bolivia (18) notched fewer goals than Argentina (19) en-route to Russia as La Albiceleste's route was mired in inconsistency. Matches averaged just 1.94 goals per-gamewith the top-heavy side regularly struggling for invention, notching twice or more on only six (33%) occasions.

There's hope that under Jorge Sampaoli, Argentina may find the magic formula although Iceland are unlikely to rollover against their more illustrious opposition. Our Boys were similarly frugal with only three of their 10 preliminaries beating the Over 2.5 Goals 2.10mark.

Under 2.5 Goals 1.88 has a 56% success rate in the first round of group games at the World Cup since the switch to a 32-team tournament and this opening Group D showdown looks ripe for following past trends and opposing goals.

Key Opta Stats for Argentina v Iceland

Argentina have qualified for their 17th World Cup – it’s their 12th participation in a row. They are the fifth favourites to win the World Cup at 11.00.

Argentina have gone past the first round in 11 of their last 12 World Cup appearances, the only exception coming in 2002. They are just 1.17 to qualify from Group D.

In fact, they have won 12 of their last 15 group games at the World Cup (D2 L1), their only defeat in that run coming against England in 2002 (0-1). Argentina are 1.38 to beat Iceland.

Argentina have also topped their group in each of the last three World Cups. They are 1.70to win Group D.

Only Bolivia (18) scored fewer goals than Argentina (19) in the CONMEBOL qualifiers for the 2018 World Cup. Under 2.5 goals is 1.88.

Iceland have qualified for their first World Cup and their second major tournament after Euro 2016 where they reached the quarter-finals. Slovakia were the last World Cup debutants to make it to the knockout stages of the tournament (2010). Iceland are the outsiders to qualify for the last-16 at 4.20.

Only Edinson Cavani (10) scored more goals than Lionel Messi (7) in the CONMEBOL qualifiers for the 2018 World Cup. Messi is 1.70 to score.

Messi has scored four and assisted one of Argentina’s last seven goals at the World Cup finals. He's 3.20 to score the first goal.

Gylfi Sigurdsson was top scorer (4 goals) and joint-top appearance maker (10 games) for Iceland in the qualifiers for Russia 2018. Sigurdsson is 5.40 to find the net.

Jorge Sampaoli took over from Edgardo Bauza as Argentina manager with four matches to spare in qualifying. This will be Sampaoli’s second World Cup after 2014; he led Chile to the round of 16 where they were knocked out by Brazil on penalties. Argentina are 3.60 to be the top side from South America.

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