AFL Preview Round 13: Swans v Eagles

Sydney v West Coast
Fri 7:50pm at SCG

Footy fans and punters are in for an absolute treat on Friday night, with the Swans hosting the Eagles at the SCG in what will be 3rd v 1st. West Coast have been exceptional this season, and will be aiming for 11 consecutive wins in a row for just the third time in their history- and the first time since 1996, a year where they finished in the Top 4. Unfortunately for them, they hit a Swans side who are fresh off a 71-point spanking of the Saints and they will be full of confidence for their second Friday night game at home for the season. Can Sydney repeat their Round 1 performance against the Weagles that saw 8 majors for Buddy and a Goal of the Year contender for Luke Parker and triumph in the Battle of the Birds?

Form

Sydney (WWWWW) – The first quarter against St. Kilda last round, where they piled on 9 goals to 1, wasn’t even a training run- it was a warm-up for a training run. It was set-up by a typical Swans display, with their success on the inside (+12 on clearances) allowing for plenty of clean possessions inside their forward 50 (+13 on Inside 50 marks). Callum Sinclair is fast becoming one of the Swan’s most important players, with his ability to push forward and take marks making him a dangerous match-up; the former Eagle dominated Tom Hickey last weekend and his clash against old friend Nic Naitanui will be an absorbing contest.

West Coast (WWWWW) – We all know that the Eagles haven’t lost since Round 1, but something that is probably even more important to Adam Simpson after the debacle of 2015, is their away record. They have won 4 games from 4 attempts in Melbourne this year, and got the chocolates over the Giants in Sydney, despite missing their 2 most important midfield players (Naitanui and Shuey). They haven’t played in Sydney very often over the past few years, so this record in 2018 should give them a great confidence boost.

Stats That Matter– In the past 5 meetings the average margin has been 35 points
– Unders is 4-1 in West Coast away games this season
– Lance Franklin is averaging 3.4 goals per game in 2018 and kicked 8 against the Eagles in Round 1
– West Coast have not won in Sydney since 2007
– Luke Parker averages 27 disposals and 104 Fantasy Points per game against West Coast
– Sydney are 4-1 on the Over/Under in their last 5 matches
– Andrew Gaff has had 100+ Fantasy Points in 7 of 11 games this season

Betting Data

2018 Line: Sydney- 6-6; West Coast- 7-4
2018 Over-Under: Sydney- 6-6; West Coast- 5-6

What To Expect

Wolfie is expecting a cracking contest in this game, but unfortunately for the Eagles it is on the wrong side of the Nullabor. While the SCG hasn’t been the fortress this year that is has been in previous years, this hardened side will know exactly what they’re up against and will come to play. The loss of Jack Darling, the most in-form forward in the competition, is a cruel blow for the Eagles right when they were building some incredible momentum, and it allows Dane Rampe to play with slightly more freedom than he might otherwise have been awarded. The stingy defence of the Swans and the hardened midfield getting on top of the Eagles on the inside, should lay the perfect platform for the Swans to beat the Eagles for the second time this season.

How It’s Shaping UpSydney by 17

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Sydney 1-39 ($2.10)
Value Bet: Franklin 2+ Goals in 1st Quarter ($4.25)
Player Prop: Josh Kennedy 30+ Disposals ($2.75)
First Goalscorer: Callum Sinclair